@RLB_1 @OdedRechavi @dreradams1 Unbelievably accurate. I'm SO SORRY - that's it I'll do it all tomorrow . Promise.
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Ghaith Aljayyoussi
1.3K posts
Ghaith Aljayyoussi
@PKghaith
Lecturer, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine. PK/PD Modelling: Malaria, TB and COVID-19.
Liverpool, England Katılım Ekim 2015
264 Takip Edilen249 Takipçiler
The first author who moved to industry in the middle of the revisions
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@jburnmurdoch It will be good to have a version of this graph for only those who are double / triple vaccinated over the last few months - i guess then that line would dip below the flu risk as it's mostly driven up by those not vaccinated although a minority?
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Two bits of good Covid news today in the UK.
First, adding another two weeks of ONS data means Covid’s infection fatality rate has now crossed below the "2x flu" line.
Latest IFR is roughly 60% higher than flu and still falling.
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@james_doidge Why is no one talking about this though ? Can you please post links to the ICU and excess mortality data please ?
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@DrStedx Oh yes and the continuous cough resulted in an inguinal hernia for me (I bet you wanted to hear that!)
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@MaryTracy the money that billions of people 'lost' during the pandemic didn't just burn into thin air, it went somewhere else. Now we know where it went!
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This is the only curve getting flatter...
Max Lawson@maxlawsontin
The Billionaire Variant. How billionaire wealth grew almost exponentially during Covid-19. Astonishing.
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LFT tests: Nose only doesn't work! Yesterday throat + nose (my only symptom was a sore throat). Today (after POSITIVE PCR) tried nose only (per leaflet). NEGATIVE! Same test done same time with nose + throat POSITIVE. How many people out there think they're clear? #covidchristmas
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Ghaith Aljayyoussi retweetledi
@sajidjavid Ethel's family totally disagree.
While Johnson boozed on the 20th May party, we were arranging her funeral.
12 attendees.
Her son and family couldn't travel from the USA.
No hugging.
No touching coffin.
Anger does not cut it. We are not alone.
.@BorisJohnson #resign.
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@michaeljswalker Today's was too American centrist and not fair for Brits! Nightmare.
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@statsjamie @DanielFooksArt What's the source of this data please?
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I will put out a blog on this on more detail later with all the data sources 👍👍
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🚨🚨 ‘The numbers of patients in critical care in Englands beds at the moment is lower than any of the four years leading up to the Covid pandemic’
On 02 Jan
2022 - 3,055
2021 - 3,911
2020 - 3,075
2019 - 3,064
2018 - 3,270
2017 - 3,101
Discussing situation with @TiceRichard
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@BristOliver With millions positive with COVID in the the last 28 days, shouldn't we be careful about interpreting these figures as many could also be 'incidental deaths' ?
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@ChrisCEOHopson @NHSProviders Great and balanced analysis! A great metric would be total number of patients in hospitals (COVID + non-COVID) and/or total ICU patients today Vs. Last year same time Vs a normal non COVID winter like 2018 . That would really help put things in perspective for us
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NEW, largely data led, thread for 8 Jan. @NHSProviders we particularly concentrate on the daily covid-19 hospital inpatient data: england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…. It’s the key public, daily, up to date, source of relevant data on “what does hospital demand pressure look like?” 1/19
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Ghaith Aljayyoussi retweetledi
ICNARC have updated their analysis of COVID patients in critical care in England, Wales and NI. They now show boosted patients as well.
They are shown in green.
Yes, I've put them on the chart.
You have to squint.
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Ghaith Aljayyoussi retweetledi
“People learn history best when they are making history.”
― C.L.R. James
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@etotheipie Ultimately, this is the kind of data that we need to follow and that will tell us really how bad Omicron is
twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch
6) That will most likely be felt in London first, where the number of patients in critical care beds is already running above the typical level for this time of year, and ~150 Covid patients are being admitted every day (again, yes, mostly for Covid not just with)
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There are far too many doctors On Here showing graphs of the UK ventilator v. new hospital admissions data (or total hospital patient count data) to argue that Omicron is not as severe as the previous waves. This is highly irresponsible. The data shows ventilator data lags.
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@etotheipie More data on the subject: twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch
NEW: situation update from Gauteng, where cases, test-positivity and admissions are all now falling (no, this is not driven by testing capacity/behaviour or by migration). Deaths and excess deaths still rising, but based on timing of peak will not come close to Delta levels.
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@etotheipie Agreed , but re herd immunity because of previous infections in South Africa, every immunologist seems to agree that 2x vaccine is better than previous infection, so on this front at the least the UK should do much better. Next weeks should be really interesting!
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@etotheipie Love your analysis and agree it's too early to make conclusions. Would be interesting to look at the South African data though , this 'de-coupling' at least between cases and hospitalisations/deaths is dramatic in a country that's significantly less vaccinated than the UK or US.
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Again, the Omicron wave might result in a smaller peak in hospitalizations and deaths than Delta did, but you CANNOT tell that from looking at the available data. The NYC "decoupling" idea was embarrassingly incorrect, using data which was outdated even then. Do better!
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@richev48 @BristOliver Hi Evan , do you care to share the source of this data. Is it really that total people in hospitals in London is actually going down? I thought this information about total hospital admissions was not available.
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@BristOliver London hospitalisation data shows that, as Omicron emerged, prevalence of CV admitted has tended towards community prevalence. ie just as likely to find it in the fracture clinic as in ICU. Start of the month (Delta dominance) that was 7% v 3%. "With" not "of"?
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