Richard Duncan

Watch Richard Duncan's Speech: How To Understand Economics And The Financial Markets In The Post-Bretton Woods World. vimeo.com/233185846 To subscribe to Richard's video-newsletter, Macro Watch click on the link below and use the discount code: Brazil ow.ly/X1ur50zULyl

What’s really driving the US economy today? Using the Fed's Flow of Funds data, I explain how the system has changed—and why the risks are rising. Watch the full video here: richardduncaneconomics.com/your-wealth-is… #Fed #Credit

US household wealth has surged to $184 trillion. But much of that is now tied to rising asset prices—and government debt. If inflation and interest rates move higher, that could reverse very quickly. This is a much more fragile system than it appears.

Something very important has changed in the US economy—and most people haven’t noticed. For decades, the economy was driven by private sector credit growth. That’s no longer the case. So what’s driving it now?

Before the Shock: The US Economy on the Eve of War The US economy looks stable. But that stability depends heavily on very high asset prices. And those valuations are already near historic extremes. If the war pushes inflation and interest rates higher, that support could quickly disappear. And so could the stability. Learn more from Macro Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/the-us-economy…

This is the real risk: War → higher oil prices → higher inflation → higher interest rates And that could trigger: • An asset prices crash • A reversal of the wealth effect • A sharp economic downturn The US economy is more vulnerable than it looks. Watch here: richardduncaneconomics.com/the-us-economy…

The US economy looked strong before the war. But it may be far more fragile than it appears. Household wealth is now 805% of income—an all-time high. If the Iran war drives inflation and interest rates higher, that asset price bubble could burst. Full analysis: richardduncaneconomics.com/the-us-economy…

Asset prices are already at extreme levels. Household wealth is at an all-time high relative to income. Now add the risk of war-driven inflation and higher interest rates. That combination could expose just how fragile this “strong” economy really is. Read more here: richardduncaneconomics.com/the-us-economy…

The global economic system has already moved from Capitalism to Creditism. Artificial intelligence may now push it into something entirely new: Cognitism. Read more: richardduncaneconomics.com/from-capitalis… #AI #Cognitism

What happens when machines begin expanding cognition faster than humans ever could? That question will define the next economic era. The new Macro Watch video explores the transition: Capitalism → Creditism → Cognitism Full explanation here: richardduncaneconomics.com/from-capitalis… #AI

From Capitalism to Creditism to Cognitism Economic systems are defined by their constraints. Gold constrained Capitalism. Credit creation defines Creditism. AI may remove the constraints on cognition itself. That could transform our economic system again. #AI #Cognitism

Capitalism was constrained by gold. Creditism is driven by credit creation. But what happens when artificial intelligence removes the constraints on human cognition itself? The new Macro Watch video explores the next possible economic system: Cognitism. Read more: richardduncaneconomics.com/from-capitalis…

If China wins the AI race, Creditism collapses. If the US wins the AI race, Creditism still won’t survive. Either way, the economic system we’ve lived under for decades is ending. The question is what replaces it. Watch the new Macro Watch video: richardduncaneconomics.com/will-creditism… #AI

Economic systems don’t collapse because of small policy mistakes. They collapse when the constraints that bind them change. The US is now facing its biggest constraint in decades: China — and the AI race. Is Creditism about to break? See Macro Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/will-creditism…

Watch here: richardduncaneconomics.com/will-creditism… The AI race will decide whether Creditism collapses — or transforms into something entirely new.

Will Creditism collapse? China. Inflation. Political control over monetary policy. And at the center of it all — the AI race. If the US loses, the system fails. If it wins… something even bigger happens. New Macro Watch video: “Will Creditism Collapse?” 🔗 Link below.

The question is no longer whether the economic system will change. It’s how it will change — and who controls the redesign. The latest Macro Watch video explains why Creditism is being rebuilt to circumvent its constraints. Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/the-re-enginee… #Creditism

Industrial policy is back. Trade policy is now strategic. Monetary authority is under political pressure. These aren’t random events — they’re signs that Creditism is entering a re-engineering phase. Full breakdown: richardduncaneconomics.com/the-re-enginee… #Creditism

The global economic system that replaced Capitalism is now being quietly re-engineered. The new Macro Watch video explains why Creditism can no longer be stabilized the old way — and what policymakers are doing instead. Watch here: richardduncaneconomics.com/the-re-enginee… #Creditism

The risks facing markets today are no longer primarily financial. They’re political consent, national security, real resources, and credibility. That’s the focus of my latest Macro Watch video: The State of Creditism in 2026. Learn more: richardduncaneconomics.com/the-state-of-c… #Capitalism

Economic systems don’t fail because of ideology. Economic systems don’t fail suddenly. They adapt or fail when their internal contradictions can no longer be managed. That’s where Creditism finds itself today. #Creditism #Capitalism #MacroWatch