@jmcammisa It was Brian Navarro, but I found the file and didn't realize it was off a pitches and PA scale.
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Pat
18 posts
Pat
@PatSullivan05
20 | Baseball Analytics | University of ___ | Substack: PatSullivan05
Virginia Katılım Şubat 2026
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As I mentioned below, Kahnle’s drop in release height (4.97 → 4.78, -0.21 ft) and velocity (94.2 → 93.5, -0.7 mph) aligns with league-wide trends toward worse fastball outcomes.
Fatigue hurts, dropping in velocity of that magnitude definitely has some effect.
Pat@PatSullivan05
Maybe it's the drop in relH and velocity that got teams spooked of him, but I'm surprised Kahnle wasn't picked up any sooner. Changeup is still a strong backbone to his profile. Assuming some of the velocity dip is some form of age, and both stride length and hip coil change.
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@RobertStock6 Might take me 10 years to load, but I'll let you know when I get around to it!
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@PatSullivan05 Can you run it for like 10 years instead of 1? Curious how that would look.
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@RobertStock6 Intuitively, guys who create contact stay fairly in carrying that on; more volatility in moving runners.
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Talked with @RBunikiewicz about Kahnle and we saw the same vision with Kahnle.
This was a guy 35 IP heading into July with a 1.75, and ironically got worse face-value from velocity decline.
Could add some security back with the slider and 2S or just fix up the CH locations.
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Maybe it's the drop in relH and velocity that got teams spooked of him, but I'm surprised Kahnle wasn't picked up any sooner.
Changeup is still a strong backbone to his profile. Assuming some of the velocity dip is some form of age, and both stride length and hip coil change.
Jon Heyman@JonHeyman
Tommy Kahnle to Red Sox. Minors deal.
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Has shown flashes as a plus defender, mostly a lefty killer, and has plus power in the tank.
Improving the whiff rates isn’t a light-switch flip fix, but it can be rewired, and could be a consistent MLB contributor if he can mesh those 2024 discipline and 2025 power numbers.
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@RobertStock6 That I haven’t checked, but I’d assume it stays fairly neutral. Once I get around to it, I’ll let you know if I see a trend, otherwise, this stays pretty meaningless (as I meant for it to be) and just strictly an IKF post.
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@PepTalkFantasy Which subjectively I think comes from relying more on the upper half than you ideally would to generate higher force production. He may be able to compensate with being just* an air-pull hitter, especially Fenway being an advantage for his profile.
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Good stuff. Durbin is a read and react hitter. In hitter's counts, he's one of the few that actually swings slower.
The Brewers as a team had the lowest "A-Swing Boost".
I think with a different plan at the plate and more intent, all the things you want to see from Durbin may just happen
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@jmcammisa 500 PA! Obviously, not much correlation in the plot, but the point I strictly look at is what you with creating balls in play off situational execution and hitting direction in his [IKF] case.
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@thebabygiraffe3 Last thing I wanted was for this to look like a mixed salad, but I’m glad you still understood the idea!!
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@PastTheEyeTest Much appreciated, Charlie! Love watching the continuous strides you’ve made with your content.
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Go follow my good friend @PatSullivan05, he's been gone for a while but he posts a lot of quality content and was a staple in the baseball analytics. This is his new account.
Pat@PatSullivan05
Been messing around with Caleb Durbin's swing metrics. There's more pop in that bat than the numbers show, but there needs to be more consistent launch angles as a pre. Swing path tilt and attack angle have to come first though, especially AA in the shadow zone.
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Was also going to add this image, which displays the combination of attack angle, swing path tilt and attack direction in order to get the best combination of results for launch speed. Pretty intuitive results/adjustments given his lack of hard hit rate vs BB/offspeed.
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