Patty_007

I have been seeing a lot of talk about $EQR.AX and once you dig into it the excitement makes complete sense. It is a tungsten mining company. Two operating mines. Mt Carbine in Far North Queensland and a second asset in Spain. Trading at A$0.30. Market cap A$1.6 billion. Backed by Oaktree Capital. Here is why tungsten is the most important commodity most investors have never thought about. China controls 79% of global tungsten production. In early 2025 they imposed export controls. By early 2026 exports dropped to effectively zero. China is now a net importer of tungsten for the first time ever. The supply backstop that capped the price in every previous cycle is permanently gone. APT price early 2025: $320. APT price today: approaching $3,000. A near 10x move in roughly a year and nobody is talking about it. The Iran war poured fuel on it. Tungsten is the metal inside armor-piercing tank rounds. Every round fired is tungsten that does not come back. Rheinmetall targeting 1.1 million shells by 2027. US Army targeting 100,000 rounds per month. None of it gets recycled. Supply gets permanently consumed. Then there is the January 2027 DoD procurement ban. Chinese and Russian tungsten banned from all US defense contracts from that date. Western production becomes legally mandated. $EQR.AX is one of two meaningful western tungsten producers in the world. 2026 production target: 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes. At current APT prices the revenue math is extraordinary relative to the market cap. Its closest peer ran 840% last year and trades at 8x the valuation of $EQR.AX on similar production numbers. A $0.30 stock. Operating mines. Production ramping. DoD mandate incoming. The tightest commodity market in a generation.

I was literally about to post about this. My friend in Singapore told me his colleagues trading crude are seeing aggressive bids from Asia for any crude and LNG supply already on water. Not surprisingly many tankers initially routed to Europe changed course to Asia. He thinks because of this dynamic the shortages in Europe might become even more acute soon than what’s already expected. We also had a brief chat about physical silver, one of the metals he trades directly, and he is seeing the market for physical right now as tight as December with a lot of inventories dismissing offers even at 20$+ premium vs spot. I asked him to comment about no moves whatsoever for physical silver at the Comex last Thursday and he believes some inventory moves might not have been accounted for. Comex will be ok till end of April when the May contract will increase pressure again especially when demand from China didn’t slow down at all in the past few months.

The next 5 days could determine whether 90 million people lose power and whether the world's oil supply survives. Tonight, Donald Trump delivered a live ultimatum to Iran, reach a deal by April 6 or watch every single power plant in the country get hit simultaneously. He also acknowledged he has been deliberately holding back from hitting Iran's oil fields and made clear that option is still sitting on the table.​ "We haven't hit their oil," he said. "But we could hit it, and it would be gone, and there's not a thing they could do about it."​ Since the war has started, over 1,200 Iranian civilians have been confirmed dead. Twenty-five hospitals damaged, nine hospitals completely destroyed and a single US airstrike killed 165 civilians in a school.​ Thirteen American service members have also been killed.​ The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil flows every single day has been nearly shut down since the war began.​ The International Energy Agency called it the largest oil supply disruption in recorded history.​ Global oil prices surged up to 76 percent, brent crude hit $106 a barrel, LNG prices spiked nearly 60 percent and gas prices went up 43 cents in a single week. And that is before Trump touches the oil fields. Trump has already extended it twice, once for five days, then again for ten. Behind closed doors, Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey are all acting as messengers between two governments that refuse to speak directly.​ The new deadline is April 6, 8 PM Eastern Time.​ If no deal is reached by then, the Pentagon already has plans drawn up for what they are calling a "decisive strike" which may include ground troops and the seizure of Kharg Island, the terminal through which 90 percent of Iran's oil exports move.​ The world's entire energy system is one negotiation away from its worst shock in modern history. The clock runs out in 5 days.