Peter Harling

@james_acton32 Yes absolutely, amazing as it sounds, it is Iran that is most likely to decide when the war ends, with assurances that the US or Israel will not treat a ceasefire like they have in Gaza and Lebanon. Iran has a relatively clear definition of victory here. The US hasn't.

There’s one crucial difference. Trump could unilaterally withdraw from Minnesota. He can’t unilaterally withdraw from this war. Even if Trump wants a ceasefire tomorrow, Iran may well want to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

The parallel with Minneapolis lies in this narrowing support for an administration carried away by its own rhetoric. Trump's tariff wars followed a similar sequence too: improvised moves, chaotic outcomes, shoddy climbdown. The Iran war is that same mix of bluster and blunder.

The US is slighting its traditional NATO and European partners in a similar way: bullying them into containing the fallout of a war that supplanted any old alliances with a fusional relation with Israel only. Trump's war on a pariah state is leaving him bizarrely isolated.

Trump is reaching another "Minnesota moment", this time in international affairs. Just as his domestic repression drive backfired for lack of planning, achievable goals, and internal discipline, this war is showing the limits of blusterous violence in lieu of strategy. 🧵

Lebanon is in a real catch-22. Hizbollah is too weak to deter Israel, protect its community, force a negotiated settlement, or rethink its own tactics... Yet strong enough to deter the Lebanese army from taking over, while egging on Israel and inviting ever more escalation.

An acute sense of isolation ensues, while all the attention is focused on the showdown with Iran. The paucity of news coverage is such that simply figuring out what is going on has become difficult, an ominous new feature of this ordeal.

In the face of such catastrophe, Lebanese society is mobilized through myriad forms of solidarity, to provide shelter, food, first aid, and other necessities. This isn't new in itself, but the effort enjoys less international support than ever before.

Although the new war on Lebanon may look like a continuation of its forebear in 2024, it is in fact different in many ways.🧵