Pedro
15.5K posts
Pedro
@Peter_the_Puck
Memento mori
Laniakea Supercluster Katılım Haziran 2023
12 Takip Edilen107 Takipçiler
@_Futbolero_ Como el Barça femenino, sin rival a nivel estatal.
Bien.
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@vamos_a_ver123 Vale.
Pues cada mochuelo a su olivo.
Da igual cuando lo leas.
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@Peter_the_Puck Jajaja jajajajaja jajajsgsjdjajajs odio la poesía duIce y mis hijos son alérgicos.
Tengo que seguir buscando.
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A menudo, cuando viajo a Barcelona, cuelgo el sombrero en la librería Finestres.
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Trump amenaza al mundo con una guerra nuclear y aquí todo el mundo que puede hacer algo guarda silencio, mira para otro lado o le pide contención… ¡a Irán!
¿Puede Europa ya hacer algo para parar a Israel y EEUU?
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Rock N Roll!
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
BREAKING: The US just struck Kharg Island, through which 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports flow, on the same day that bridges and railway lines are being destroyed across the country and the IRGC warned it would deprive American allies of the region’s oil and gas for years. Markets moved crude three percent on the Kharg headlines. They are looking at the wrong variable. Kharg is where oil leaves Iran. Asaluyeh and Mahshahr are where oil becomes molecules. Both have now been destroyed. That distinction matters more than any barrel count, because the world does not run on crude. It runs on what crude becomes after it passes through a steam cracker at 850 degrees: the ethylene that makes your packaging, the propylene that makes your car dashboards, the ammonia that feeds your soil, the methanol that synthesises your pharmaceuticals, and the helium that cools the lithography machines fabricating every advanced chip on earth. The IEA calls this the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market. They measured barrels. The binding constraint is not barrels. It is molecules. And molecules do not respond to the mechanisms that clear oil shocks. You cannot release strategic reserves of propylene because no country has ever stockpiled it. You cannot substitute US ethane crackers because ethane produces ethylene but not propylene, not aromatics, not butadiene, and that is quantum chemistry, not economics. You cannot wait for a ceasefire because Dow’s CEO said last week that even after the strait reopens, petrochemicals will be last in the transit queue behind oil, gas, and fertiliser, and the heat exchangers required to rebuild the damaged facilities are manufactured by exactly five companies on earth with lead times of 18 to 36 months. What happened today at Kharg compounds the crisis in a way nobody is modelling. The destruction of upstream crude export capacity eliminates the revenue Iran would need to fund petrochemical reconstruction AND eliminates the feedstock that would eventually flow to whatever crackers survive. The war is destroying the input and the output simultaneously. There is no historical precedent for the concurrent annihilation of a nation’s crude export terminal, its petrochemical processing capacity, its steel production base, and its transport infrastructure in the same five-week campaign. The closest analog is IG Farben after 1945, and full restoration of that integrated chemical ecosystem required over a decade. The IRGC’s own threat confirms the duration thesis. They said years, not months. The industry’s own assessment confirms it. C&EN titled their April 3 analysis: “Iran war will debilitate petrochemicals for the rest of 2026,” and that is the most optimistic institutional estimate. QatarEnergy says Ras Laffan repairs take up to five years. The five heat exchanger manufacturers cannot simultaneously rebuild six countries. The biological clock for nitrogen-dependent crops does not wait for diplomatic negotiations. Markets price the conflict in barrels and months. The chemistry prices it in molecules and years. The gap between those two frames is the largest temporal arbitrage in modern financial markets, and it widened today. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
English
🔴Ramon Lamiel, director del Servei Català de Trànsit: “Som 8 milions de persones, potser ens hauríem de plantejar com a societat si aquesta mobilitat litoral ha de ser sempre en cotxe”
🔗cadenaser.com/sercat/aqui-ca…
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