Phil Mck

The 10YR treasury yield, a general indicator of health of the overall economy, is likely to drop to 3% by the end of the year. The last time the 10yr was as high as it is now? ..... December 2007. The fragility of this economy clearly indicates it will be unable to sustain rates at 20 year highs. Employment will take precedent over inflation. In 2018, #Trump had a similar playbook. He placed tariffs on China when rates were rising and it led to a 3 month drawdown of 20% in the SPX. More importantly, it prompted the beginning of rate cuts which bottomed March 2020. Over the past 25 years, each time the 10YR has simultaneously risen with the SPX (at an exceedingly high rate) it has been a leading indicator of a crash or correction. $SPX AAR June 2003 - June 2007: 15.5% SPX AAR July 2016 - October 2018: 22.5% SPX AAR March 2020 - January 2025: 33% The #FED is ALWAYS late. I expect yields to continue dropping, and quickly. The FED is all-but guaranteed to cut rates in June because Trump is unlikely to ease tariff rhetoric until that happens. @SantiagoAuFund @GeorgeGammon @heresyfinancial @LukeGromen #Stocks #Bonds #Crypto

@yieldsearcher Valid thesis. I don't subscribe to the data points being reliably accurate but something to watch.

Some yes but not wholly. Core PPI at 3.7% vs core CPI at 2.5% suggests firms are not fully passing this through as consumers are balking. And when PPI > CPI continue for extended period of time, firms cut labor to protect overall margins. That means less income to support px gains.

The surcharge is on the Amazon vendors who now face a dilemma. - Eat it up and see your margin squeezed - Pass it through and risk loss of market share to those who chose the former Into an economy whose consumption is expected to grow at paltry 1.4% in Q1 per AtlantaFed.

@MenthorQpro Probably noteworthy given he clearly knew war with Iran was coming when he bought up $OXY. Insider information after 70 years in the business shouldn’t be a surprise.

Buffett sees more downside coming. March was nothing.

And people still wonder why there’s 4 year cycles. It’s always been the miners, always will be - because hashrate is the profit gate.

@joinautopilot I'm sure it has nothing to do with bombing Iran.

Okay this is crazy Since inception, the Venezuela Regime Change Portfolio is up +21%🤯 For Context • $SPX: -5.5% • $MAGS: -12.0% View the full list of the portfolio below

@disclosetv What does China do when they start running low on oil because the U.S. crippled their supply?

NOW - Trump's suggestion to countries that cannot get fuel over Strait of Hormuz closure: "Buy oil from the United States of America, we have plenty, we have so much!" He adds, "Go to the Strait and just take it! Protect it!"

@DarioCpx The most important question is how long will China accept these actions? They are not going to side with U.S. - they'll side with Iran. Asia is going to be hit the hardest and be reflexive. Does anybody see Trump submitting to China's demands? No bueno.

This is how $USOIL moved during Trump's primetime speech that just ended - feel free to take your own conclusions

#Trump has gone full blown psycho. How long before #China steps in?

@Tablesalt13 I’m sure that will make housing more affordable.

holy fuck the Canadian 30 year bond yield just hit a 16 year high and no one noticed. government borrowing costs are surging.

@disclosetv There's no way he'll confirm this. And I don't think there's any way he'd accept that. Also, why would Iran do this - they get paid by re-opening if there's a peace agreement. Dumb WSJ probably bsing here.

JUST IN - Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. war against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly closed — WSJ

@0xkyle__ I agree. Claude code + Opus has been feeling stupid AF the past week.

btw claude models really been underperforming recently - something definitely happened in the back end

@altryne Yep and fiancée too

My feed is showing me a bunch of folks who tapped out their whole usage limits on Mon/Tue. Is this your experience? Please comment, I want to understand how widespread this is

I've found #Claude Code surprisingly underwhelming. A lot of errors and quick fixes rather than proper fixes. Is #Codex better?

@AnthropicAI what’s going on today? Get this fixed.

@BradGroux @AnthropicAI Same thing happened to me and my fiancée today

Something is up with Claude Code usage today. $200 Claude Max, 0%, 52% to 62%, then 68%, 76% and 84% in 5-hour rolling window in the time it took me to write this tweet. WTF, @AnthropicAI? I'm working on one GitHub PR for regression testing. Not folding proteins to cure cancer.

@WatcherGuru Seems like Saylor's greed could end up destroying bitcoin.

JUST IN: Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' to raise $42 billion to purchase more Bitcoin.

@GadSaad @PierrePoilievre How do you think he wins if you say it’s becoming a nation of immigrants. It is. He said that last election. He was called a bigot. He either plays softball and wins or plays hardball and loses. He needs to get into office first, stop being delusional.

This is silly and false, @PierrePoilievre. Canada is not some magical utopia where engrained hatreds disappear the second you enter the country. To the contrary, Canada is irrevocably changing because genocidal hatreds are being imported at an astounding rate. I took a two-year leave from @Concordia because of the threats that I faced.

@thevivafrei So you’d like to talk about all the same shit that lost the last election. lol

I just finished Rogan‘s interview with Poilievre. Two hours and 15 minutes, and not one mention of the ostriches. Not one mention of the Ottawa trucker protest. Not one mention of the conversion therapy ban. I will be doing a review on this podcast shortly.

@Branech 🤣 if you think this is real you’re on the spectrum

Puisque cette vidéo de la presse chinoise a été interdite en France, remettons-en une couche au nom de la liberté d’expression. ✊📢

@LucasGageX 😂 😂 talk about delusional

This is very simple to understand. As he stretches his arms out, his sleeve pulls up. Since it was stuck underneath, it drops down quickly because suits are fitted. You can LITERALLY see the sleeve mechanics.