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Pickolo

@Pickolopicks

Pickolo 🐲 | MLB • NFL Follow for breakdowns that cash

NYC Katılım Nisan 2023
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
The chart speaks if you know how to read it.
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
3-Leg .25u
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
.25u
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PCA or Busch?
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
This was my only play today
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
Welcome to Queens, Skenes.
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The energy on here is not what I expected for opening week.
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MLB Home Run
MLB Home Run@MLBHR·
WE MADE IT!!!!
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
Who was there when Judge smacked the 1st HR of the season off Webb in 2023? Will he do it again?
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
A post I made on Judge vs. Webb back in February. Had the full matchup scouted back in January. I never stop studying MLB.
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks

JUDGE vs WEBB - OPENING DAY HEAVYWEIGHT MATCHUP This matchup has history. In 2023, Judge smacked a 1st innning 422-foot bomb off a 93 mph signature Logan Webb sinker, the very first home run of 2023. Judge is slashing .429/.500/1.429 vs Webb across 37 career pitches with a .750 wOBA and 401 wRC+. He's barreled 3 of 4 balls in play (75% Brl rate) with exit velos of 104.1 avg. Already has 2 HRs off Webb; a 464 footer off a change, a 422 foot nuke we mentioned alaready, and last April a 116.8 mph double. Judge has only seen Webb throw 37 pitches but has done 3.8 runs worth of damage. Against Judge, Webb tries to live down-and-away, pounding that glove-side corner. The problem? Any pitch that leaks back over the middle gets crushed. Judge saw only 5 pitches in the heart of the zone and put 3 in play: 2 HRs (464 ft, 422 ft) and a double (116.8 mph, 416 ft). That 116.8 EV double in their last meeting? Sinker, down and in, smoked to center. In their most recent game last april, Judge went 1-2 with a double, a walk, & a groundout. Webb needed 10 pitches just to get through Judge's 5th inning AB that ended in a walk. Webb's change has his best PLV (5.54) & has gotten swings-and-misses from Judge. He's struck Judge out twice on the change. But when Judge connects? 115.7 EV barrel 464 feet to left-center. Webb bumps his changeup usage to 25%+ trying to get whiffs. In June 24’, Webb threw Judge 7 changeups in 11 pitches across his first AB alone. Judge fouled off 3 straight 2-strike changeups before smacking one into the seats. Webb vs RHB in 2025: 42.5% sinker, 28.1% sweeper, 18.3% changeup Judge vs RHP in 2025: vs Sinkers: .471 AVG, 260 wRC+, 19.7 Barrel%, 95.4 EV vs Sweepers: .278 AVG, 180 wRC+, 17.2 Barrel%, 88.9 EV vs Changeups: .286 AVG, 189 wRC+, 20% Barrel%, 90.3 EV Judge crushes all of his stuff. The sweeper is Webb's only slight hope; it's his newest pitch he added it in 2024 and Judge has only seen it 10 times. The problem is Webb's sweeper only averages 2505 RPM spin rate. Against RHP sweepers in the 2450-2550 RPM range specifically, Judge is slashing .407/.529/1.037 with a .622 wOBA & .593 xwOBA. That's a 55.6% HardHit% & a 44.4% Barrel%. He has 4 HR and 5 Doubles in just 27 ABs against that spin profile. Webb's sweeper falls directly into Judge's wheelhouse. Judge wins. Webb survives. Ball leaves the yard. Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases Projection: Judge 2-4, HR, BB, 1 K, 5 TBs 💚 if you want more heavyweight opening week matchups.

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Pickolo
Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
It’s the best time of the year again ⚾️ .25u
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
In the lab 🧪
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Pickolo
Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
Go check FanDuel
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Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
Ronald Acuna Jr. (RHB) HR +475 DK | 0.5u The blueprint already exists. On Aug 22, 2025, inning 4: McLean starts Acuña with a called strike sinker, then throws three sweepers at 86-87 mph. Every one of them misses or fouls. The count runs to 3-2. McLean goes back to the sweeper a 5th time; 86.1 mph, same pitch, same velocity band. Acuña is sitting on it. 112.4 exit velocity. 427 feet to center field. The deepest home run McLean has allowed all season. McLean's sweeper against RHB carries a 50% HR/FB rate. The pitch sits at 84-86 mph with virtually no induced vertical break (-1.9" iVB), meaning it stays flat and hittable through the zone. Acuna has 38 career home runs off sliders; the same velocity band, the same break profile; and his 2025 xSLG against sweepers from RHP was .912. The Aug. 22 swing confirmed exactly what the data predicted: McLean's bread-and-butter pitch against right-handed batters is Acuna's prime power pitch. LoanDepot Park is one of the more comfortable venues in Acuna's road splits. 9 career home runs there in 210 PA, .353 BA, .584 SLG, 1.041 OPS. This is familiar NL East territory for Acuna; the kind of park where his near-miss data shows deep flies that become real home runs, not warning-track outs. His 48 center-field home runs over his career aren't cheap shots; that Aug. 22 ball cleared the fence by 30 feet. Tonight checks all four boxes from McLean's documented HR vulnerability profile simultaneously. Every career home run McLean has allowed came on the road, at night, vs. RHB,and in between innings four and six. This is a WBC championship "road" night game. Acuna will bat in the leadoff that McLean will likely see deep into the game. The second time through the order; where McLean has allowed three of four MLB home runs; lands squarely in that window. His WBC form confirms the power is live right now: 1 HR, 26.7% Barrel rate, 16.7% Barrel per plate appearance, 60% hard-hit rate, 96.4 avg EV against right-handed pitching. He entered his end-of-2025 hot streak with 3 HR in his final 7 games and EV on his last five homers ranging from 104.8 to 111.3 mph. Main Risk: After the 4th-inning HR on 8/22, McLean came back in the 6th and struck Acuna out on back-to-back 97 mph four-seamers; swinging strikes at 1-1 and 1-2. His whiff rate on four-seamers at 97+ mph is 37.6%. If McLean lives exclusively with his heater and buries the sweeper, Acuna can be overpowered and beaten with pure velocity. That's what +475 is pricing.
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Pickolo
Pickolo@Pickolopicks·
How to bet on Ketel Marte in 2026. Switch-hitting stud: 102 career HR vs righties (2.95% HR/PA, .442 SLG, 112 wRC+) across 68% of PAs vs Higher rate vs LHP as RHH (4.21%, .536 SLG, 140 wRC+). Bet RHP for consistency + volume, LHP for pure ceiling/upside. 2025 strong finish (28 HR total, 4 in final 10 days) with legit fly-ball pop (avg HR EV 105.3 mph, 405 ft distance, 33.8% FB rate vs RHP). Key RHP pitch types he crushes: Four-seam fastballs (41.7% of career HRs; his #1 weapon), sinkers (19.6%), changeups (14.1%, .605 SLG vs RHP CH with 3 HR in 2025 alone). Sweet spot: 91-95 mph fastballs + 88-92 mph changeups. Crushes elevated fastballs and low-spin sinkers/cutters. Key LHP pitch types he crushes: Changeups (elite career .833 SLG vs LHP changeups with massive damage); he crushes changeup-heavy lefties. Chase Field home money: 72 of 74 home HRs there (3.05% rate, elite venue) with 8.0% HR rate vs RHP. Surprisingly stronger road rate overall (3.71%) boosted by California parks. Best road parks: Coors Field, Globe Life Field (short gaps), Angel Stadium (20 career HRs). Hard fades: Elite sweeper/slider specialists (.182 BA / 38.7% whiff on sweepers), 97+ mph flamethrowers, extreme pitcher’s parks (Oracle, Petco, Marlins Park), cold weather (<50°F), or recent slump (0 near-HRs + barrel <8% last 7-10 games). Buy signal: Home at Chase Field vs Pitcher throwing 35%+ fastballs (91-94 mph) + changeups 15%+ usage, in a hot streak or with 2+ near-HRs recently = Tier 1 smash spot. My Whop currently has a free trial; the guides are here and ready for you to start crushing HR props. 👇 Like, RT, and comment who you want posted next! 💰 @Pickolopicks
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