Pierce&Pierce

When Japan’s dollarised liquidity is rising, Bitcoin averages +51% over 3 months (77% hit rate). When it’s falling: +1%. Coin flip. 154 months of data. p < 0.001. It turned in December. The full framework + what it says at every price level from here to $200K: pierce-pierce.ghost.io/the-roadmap/

This. We backtested it across 151 months. The stat nobody’s talking about: same “undervalued” reading, completely different outcomes depending on Japan’s direction. Japan rising: +86%, 87% win rate Japan falling: +5%, coin flip Japan bottomed in December. Full research: pierce-pierce.ghost.io/the-missing-va…

@androu250770702 @Peter_thoc Liquidity = nonsense ? Please explain ?

@Peter_thoc perma bull Peter, are you enjoying the bull market? Hint: a potential small bounce is possible (cme gaps upside) to ease off the bearish action but do not be fooled, btc highly likely to dumb SUB 60K and we will see... Liquidity+business cycle nonsense...

IS THE BOTTOM IN FOR CRYPTO?! I feel like it's either in or close to being in. This is my personal opinion. Opinions are like arseholes.. We all have one, if my opinion is different from yours, i'm ok with it. Here's my reasoning.... The whole timeline is screaming for $70k, $58k, $30k, this means most people have got out. Meanwhile we are going to see insane money printing coming this year. QE = liquidity = price go up. The theatre of the last few days... the coordination was spectacular.. to flush the last few out of crypto to create more liquidity for buyers at lows and push them to go to create more liquidity for sellers at highs.. The final shakeout was done by major exchanges offering access to gold and silver whilst precious metal prices were soaring.. + Conveniently telling the whole crypto market that USDT Tether was buying gold and not crypto just 48 hours before. I think we will look back on the last few days in a couple of months time and realise how simple it all was.. however it never feels like that in the moment!

Framework read: No signal. PMI expansion historically correlates with higher Bitcoin valuations. The ~30% drawdown flushed leverage without triggering structural stress. Full breakdown with all the data: pierce-pierce.ghost.io/cycle-risk-ind…

Historical context: At the 2021 top, MVRV was 2.73. PMI was 61. At the 2022 bottom, MVRV was 0.78. PMI was 47. Today: MVRV 1.41, PMI 52.6 Mid-cycle. Macro regime now favorable.

ISM Manufacturing PMI just printed 52.6 First expansion reading in 16 months. Every Bitcoin cycle top has occurred during PMI expansion. Every major bottom during contraction. We just flipped regimes. Here’s what it means in terms of our Cycle Risk Index 🧵 ismworld.org/supply-managem…

**Chicago PMI just printed 54 - up 11 points and the first expansion in 26 months.** National ISM releases Monday 10am ET. If it follows Chicago higher, that’s the first uptick after 4 straight months of decline. CRI update to follow as soon as national PMI prints.

Bullish - I think the traditional topping warnings will endure... BTC Dominance touching the lows sub 50 - PMI topping out above mid 50s then seeing a multi month dip… I think the traditional metrics like MVRV are still relevant - not at the raw levels we've seen in the past (treasuries and ETFs have likely changed the volatility landscape) but at the velocity we see it increase/decrease. We’ve seen declines in BTC price following the end of QT - but for the end of QT to signal a bear market would be unprecedented - just doesn't make sense - liquidity conditions will become more favourable yet risk on assets won't eventually catch a bid? Doesn't make sense - points to a buying opportunity or at least holding on for dear life as you say!

CRYPTO IS DIVIDED!!!!! 2 camps... A). The minority Those that believe a strong run comes in 2026 and are positioned accordingly, if price dips lower they will likely accumulate more or just hold on for dear life.. B). The Majority Those that believe we will follow the exact same path as the last bull market top, falling to september/october time where they will buy the lows and then ride up for the next 4 years. What would be the max pain move???! I Believe it would be to move higher.. Why?? the majority of crypto participants are not bullish, you can see this across CT.. and remember about 90% of people who have participated in crypto in the past are not even here right now, they're not paying attention.. For invalidation for Bears to be forced bullish won't happen until BTC is back above $115k + by this point alts etc will have seen major recovery since lows. My thoughts.. I'm bullish.. why? Macro switch to easing.. Which drove all the last bull markets.. Metals rallying on weaking dollar rather than macro fear. High yield bonds rallying against gov low risk bonds. All those that are bearish or on the fence are already out. Not many sellers left.. Most people will be caught blindsided by an upside move.. I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU?!? If you're bullish, what would be your signal to exit should things go more pear shaped? If you're bearish, what would be an invalidation signal that would have you getting back into the market?

@Microinteracti1 @5paceyCasey Your responses to the dillusional folk are pure comedy 😂 kudos

An American boat importer buys boats from France and sells them to Americans. He makes a lot of money. On paper, the U.S. shows a trade deficit with that country. Then Trump slaps a 100% tariff on the boats. The importer can no longer afford them and shuts down his business. Money lost, employees laid off, customers can’t buy boats — but hey, the trade deficit is fixed. This isn’t sustainable. Even your walnut-sized brain should be able to grasp that.

Trillions are quietly leaving the U.S. economy, and most Americans have not noticed yet. While Washington is fighting yesterday’s battles, the world is signing new trade routes, new defense deals, and new alliances designed to work without America. Supply chains move. Trust breaks. And once that happens, it does not come back on a campaign slogan. “I won’t be coming to America until Trump is gone” is no longer a meme. It is showing up in tourism, boycotts, and even World Cup chatter. This is the real cost of MAGA, and it is starting to look irreversible.

@NoLimitGains Ok! 🙄

October: BTC drops 37%. "Cycle top!" CRI: No. Leverage flush. January: BTC down 29%. "Cycle top!" CRI: No. Mid-cycle. MVRV 1.60. Lowest top ever was 2.73. PMI contracting. Every top had expansion. 3/3 tops caught. 4/4 bottoms. Zero false positives. Follow for weekly updates. pierce-pierce.ghost.io/is-this-the-to…

@QuintenFrancois - half right. Purchases started, but the balance sheet dropped $67B first week of Jan. Fed buying short-term bonds with one hand, old mortgage debt rolling off the other. Net = flat. Not bearish. The liquidity impulse just hasn’t hit yet. When it does, price will show us. Patience.

Call it whatever you want The money printer is back on 🚨

Strategy bought 13,627 BTC yesterday while CT debates whether we’re topping. 687,410 BTC total. $75K avg cost basis. The largest corporate treasury in history keeps adding at $90K+.

@CryptoNobler Net liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP) is up $177B since Dec 3. The $105B balance sheet spike on Dec 31 was offset by RRP jumping to $106B the same day - classic year-end window dressing that reversed within a week. QT ended Dec 1, Fed is now in maintenance mode. This is plumbing, NOT crisis.

🚨 GLOBAL MARKET COLLAPSE STARTS THIS WEEK!! 98% of people will lose everything before they realize what’s happening. The Fed just released new macro data and it's much worse than expected. This is VERY bad for markets. If you’re holding assets right now, you won’t like what comes next. What’s happening right now is not normal. It’s a systemic funding problem developing quietly beneath the surface, and nobody is positioned for it. The Fed has already been forced to respond. The balance sheet is up roughly $105 billion. The Standing Repo Facility has added $74.6 billion. Mortgage-backed securities are up $43.1 billion. Treasuries increased only $31.5 billion. This is not bullish QE. This is the Fed adding liquidity because funding conditions tightened and banks needed cash. When the Fed is taking more MBS than Treasuries, it means the collateral being brought to the window is lower quality. That only happens under stress. This is not a U.S.-only issue. China is doing the same thing at the same time. The People’s Bank of China injected over 1.02 trillion yuan through 7-day reverse repos in a single week. Different country, same problem. When both the U.S. and China are forced to inject liquidity simultaneously, it’s not stimulus. It’s the global financial plumbing starting to clog. Markets always misread this phase. People look at liquidity injections and assume it’s bullish. It’s not. This isn’t about price support. It’s about funding. When funding breaks, everything else becomes a trap. The sequence is always the same. Bonds move first. Funding markets show stress before equities react. Stocks ignore it until they can’t. Crypto experiences the most violent swings. Now look at the real signal the market is sending. Gold is at all-time highs. Silver is at all-time highs. This isn’t a growth story or an inflation trade. This is a rejection of sovereign debt. Capital is moving out of paper promises and into hard collateral. We’ve seen this exact setup multiple times before. → In 2000 before the dot-com crash. → In 2007 before the global financial crisis. → In 2019 before the repo market froze. Each time, a recession followed shortly after. The Fed is now trapped. If they print aggressively to stabilize bonds, precious metals accelerate higher and signal loss of control. If they don’t, funding markets seize up. Risk assets can ignore this briefly, but they never ignore it forever. This is not a normal cycle. This is a balance-sheet and collateral crisis developing quietly. By the time it becomes obvious, most people will already be on the wrong side of it. Position accordingly to survive 2026. I’ve been calling major tops and bottoms for over a decade. When I make my next move, I’ll post it here. If you’re not following yet, you probably should before it’s too late.

@RoguePOTUSStaff 100% 😂

It turns out the biggest set of testicles in DC is on the 74 year old math geek.

We track this systematically in the Cycle Risk Index. ISM PMI is one of four macro gates in the CRI. Sub-50 structurally blocks topping signals regardless of price or leverage. What flips it? PMI above 50, OI/MCap near 2%, MVRV above 2.5, HY spreads below 300bps. None present today. Current CRI: mid-cycle, zero flags. Follow for full framework and track record:

I'LL BE BLUNT Bitcoin has never set a real ATH while ISM PMI was below 50. Not once. Right now? This entire cycle has lived under 50. Historically that means: – Economic contraction – Liquidity building, not peaking – Risk assets in accumulation, not distribution That’s why this matters: PMI < 50 has always been a buying window, not a cycle top. So no, this is not the Bitcoin top. It’s the part of the cycle people misread every time. Save this. Remind yourself of it when new ATHs are printing and narratives flip.

@Vivek4real_ more true during a bull run but not the full story ... RSI oversold = up is doing the rounds. We tested all 60 RSI < 30 events since 2013. 85% made lower lows within 30 days. Bull market win rate: 79%. Bear market: 46%. The chart is cherry-picked. The signal is a coin flip unless you already know the regime. x.com/PiercePierceNY…

RSI oversold = up is doing the rounds. We tested all 60 RSI < 30 events since 2013. 85% made lower lows within 30 days. Bull market win rate: 79%. Bear market: 46%. The chart is cherry-picked. The signal is a coin flip unless you already know the regime.