Pigatha Herculean

@shipwreckedcrew And this is why Dems will feel justified in implementing far-reaching structural changes should they win a trifecta in 2028. Add states; pack the Court; federalize elections. “For democracy.”

2026 and 2028 are going to be desperation level, potential existential events, for Democrats. Between the Census accurately reflecting population shifts and the end of racial gerrymandering that guaranteed them seats in overwhelmingly red states, the Dems will lose maybe as many as 30 seats in the House. They won't just be "competitive" -- these will be likely safe Dem seats becoming likely safe GOP seats. They will become largely a party of the cities to a degree even greater than they are that now. And they are titling farther left in the direction of Euro socialism and the DSA at the same time. They are staring at a future where they are under 180 seats in good election years, and bouncing down around 160 seats in bad years.

@SwannMarcus89 I think this underrates the possibility of Democrats taking James Carville's advice by adding states and packing the Court if they win a trifecta in 2028

Let me explain why I’m a doomer regarding the Democrats. I’m not depressed about this because I’ve just accepted there are things you can’t change and no longer allow politics to impact me emotionally, but the Dems have an obvious long term problem. The Democrats and Republicans have both lost tons of support recently as both parties have radicalized. Today, 45% of voters self-ID as independent with only 27% self-identifying as both Republican and Democrat. Here’s the problem: both the GOP and the Democrats have radicalized a ton and are now increasingly out of step with the median voter. What this means is that whichever party is in power alienates moderate voters by doing shit they don’t like. According to Gallup, independent voters haven’t changed at all over the last 30 years with approximately 45% of independents identifying as moderate today and the same percentage identifying as moderate in 1994. Similarly, about 30% of independents self-ID as conservative and 25% as liberal, which was also true 30 years ago. However, with independents making up a larger and larger share of the voter pool, moderate independents have actually become a more important voting bloc and are now the primary determiners of who wins elections Because whoever is in power alienates moderate independents by being too extreme, it is impossible for either the Democrats or Republicans to string together electoral wins multiple cycles in a row. The GOP and Dems are basically just trading wins because whoever is currently in charge alienates the most important voters and loses reelection. But this is a bigger problem for the Democrats than the Republicans because the GOP has a 6-3 Supreme Court majority and a structural advantage in the Senate and Electoral College. Consequently, Republican policies are less likely to be overturned in the Supreme Court and the GOP has an easier time achieving a trifecta The only way for the Dems to combat this would be to avoid hemorrhaging independent support when they’re in power, which they won’t do because they’ve been ideologically captured by progressives who are pushing them to become even more extreme and even more alienating to independent voters. The Dems and GOP will continue trading wins but because GOP policies are less likely to be overturned and the GOP will sometimes win elections they shouldn’t due to structural advantages, American policy will become more right-wing over time

@kenklippenstein John Hinckley would like a word.

Think we can all agree that Cole Allen was the most cringe assassination attempt in American history

@MattZeitlin Apparently the FDA thinks it will reduce/eliminate the need for animal preclinical trials biospace.com/drug-developme…

so AI drug discovery sounds great but how's AI going to make clinical trials faster? i'm sure there's a podcast I could listen to about this but can someone just tell me

@karadapena @Rosieettenheim The net-worth graph is meaningless because it doesn't convey the dollar amount of debt held by the different quartiles. The more relevant chart would be a pie chart of total debt owed, broken down by income quartile.

🧵Among households whose net worth is in the bottom 25%, more than one-third hold student debt, compared with 6% of those in the top 10%, according to the Federal Reserve. wsj.com/articles/who-c… w/@Rosieettenheim

More than 16 million borrowers who thought their loans would be forgiven could have to repay starting in August. wsj.com/articles/who-c… w/@Rosieettenheim