Pika Capital

$APGE adding here. ~1.3B EV is a joke. AD market (plus other indications) is so huge that APG 777 does NOT even need to compete on efficacy with Dupixent or Ebglyss. They can grab piece of multi billion 🥧 just on convenience alone plus you have different combos in the pipeline.

I swear I've never seen a market understand a disease/disease landscape worse than atopic derm. The $NKTR and $APGE price actions are absolutely WRONG today, and I'll tell you why. Apparently (?) the market is selling $NKTR today because of $PFE data with their phase 2 IL4/13+TSLP data this morning. If you asked me before the market opened if I thought this would affect $NKTR at all I would've said "no". In fact, in private conversations before open I did just that. The $PFE drug is yet another IL4/13 axis drug, adding in TSLP, which has a checkered past and may or may not actually add to IL4/13 blockade (there is both some reason to believe that the target is not active in AtD at al and/or that it is not additive to IL4/13 since these are all heavily TH2-skewed targets). The $PFE drug vies for first line positioning, where IL4/13 is used... ...for the millionth time...THE ENTIRE POINT OF $NKTR'S DRUG IS TO BE USED ***AFTER*** IL4/13 DRUGS. There is no world in which a patient should fail an IL4/13+TSLP drug and then go onto a plain old IL4/13 drug....This is where a completely differentiated MoA like NKTR's is needed...this is the *ENTIRE* point of the drug... So who could the $PFE news actually significantly affect? $APGE!!! $APGE is trying to develop long acting IL4/13 drugs to take their share of this first line IL4/13 market...the $PFE news gives them a DIRECT competitor in that market, with $PFE's drug adding an extra MoA that $APGE lacks. $APGE went with OX40 as their IL4/13 combo partner target, because they observed that TSLP had failed in prior trials and that the TSLP pathway simply overlaps with IL4/13 (meaning it might be a redundant target). $APGE went with OX40, which as we all now know is potentially dead in AtD due to cancer risks. So, $APGE should be down today, right? Right?! They now have a direct competitor in $PFE that is vying for space in their same line of therapy/target. New competitive risk, right?! Well, $APGE is *GREEN* today, while $NKTR is -10%. This. Market. Reaction. Is. Wrong. Period. These price actions should be reversed by any sane logic. If you want to argue $APGE should be flat/green because the AtD market is so massive that it can handle more drugs, then fine. But there is absolutely ZERO reason for $NKTR to be -10% while $APGE is green on this "news". $PFE is a DIRECT competitor for $APGE versus an oblique competitor for $NKTR at worst. I cannot comprehend how it is possible that people STILL do not understand the "differentiated MoA" use case of $NKTR's rezpeg. It is truly hard for me to fathom how a market can be this STUPID and inefficient. As far as market inefficiencies go, the AtD space is the gift that keeps on giving. Absolutely insane. Yet again, moving more stuff to buy $NKTR -10%. I'd love short more $APGE >$73 too...but alas, capital constraints push more to the better r/r of the two. There's clearly no competition there AFAIC.

If $NVO is worth $270B thanks to Ozempic, $IBRX can be worth $1T with Anktiva.

A whole lot of that freshly minted shine is about to wear off. $APGE -short

it's hilarious how $NKTR is becoming a new X Biotwitter darling 🍿