Criterion Research

Deep data history. Clean design. Fair pricing. Our Mapping Analytics Platform puts nearly a decade of natural gas pipeline flow analytics into one intuitive interface. Visualize flows, track capacity constraints, and research the grid faster than ever. Try it free: map@criterionrsch.com

Sabine Pass faces a tight supply window in April. NGPL CS 302 goes offline April 1. Creole Trail faces planned pigging runs April 7-8. The two-day overlap could cause a material short-term drop in SPL feed gas beyond what either event would produce alone. We're watching the nominations closely. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

Train 6 is next in the commissioning queue. We track CCL feedgas nominations, inbound pipeline flows, and regulatory updates daily as Stage 3 ramps. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

Cheniere confirmed substantial completion of Train 5 at Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 on Friday. CCL feed gas hit a new two-week high of 3,388 MMcf/d to open the week, recovering from a 3,058 MMcf/d low on March 21. Weekly average now at ~3,428 MMcf/d, up from ~3,216 MMcf/d last week. #NatGas #LNG

Once Train 1 has completed its ramp-up, the company will begin commissioning Train 2, which should follow a similar profile. Train 3 is targeted for 1H27. At full build-out, three trains totaling 18.1 MTPA could add ~2.5 Bcf/d to US feed gas demand. We track Golden Pass inbound pipeline flows and regulatory updates in real time. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG@

Golden Pass LNG has achieved first LNG production from Train 1 The QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil joint venture confirmed the milestone today. Feed gas noms are running ~300 MMcf/d in the early cycle. The road to stable flows at a new facility's first train is rarely linear, but first LNG marks the start of a more deliberate ramp. We expect Train 1 to hit ~850 MMcf/d by 3Q26 #NatGas #LNG

SPL has options. KM Louisiana has run as high as 1,591 MMcf/d this year — current noms sit around 1,450, leaving ~141 MMcf/d of room. Creole Trail hit 1,651 MMcf/d just a few weeks ago and is running ~225 MMcf/d below that today. Want to know exactly how SPL supply shifts during the outage? We track every feeder daily. Reach out: info@criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

NGPL CS 302 goes down April 1 for a full month of maintenance, capping throughput at 55% of normal — roughly 662 MMcf/d into Sabine Pass LNG versus the current ~853 MMcf/d average. That's a ~190 MMcf/d hole in one of SPL's primary supply arteries. Where does the gas come from? 🧵

Combined with the Qatari outage after Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan and Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, analysts now estimate more than a QUARTER of global LNG supply is currently affected. We track U.S. LNG feed gas and global supply disruptions daily. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

Woodside's Macedon and Pluto facilities were unaffected. Santos confirmed its 3.7 MTPA Darwin LNG project is separately offline for planned maintenance, unrelated to the storm. Both Chevron and Woodside said they will resume full production once it is safe to return workers to offshore facilities.

A Category 3 cyclone made landfall in Western Australia Friday, taking 38.8 MTPA of LNG capacity offline across three major facilities. Chevron's Gorgon (15.6 MTPA, 3 trains) and Wheatstone (8.9 MTPA, 2 trains) are fully offline. Together they represent roughly 6.5% of global LNG supply. Woodside's North West Shelf (14.3 MTPA, 4 trains) also fully offline. 🧵

Golden Pass Train 1 commissioning continues to show significant day-to-day variability — ranging from 167 MMcf/d on Monday to 324 MMcf/d today. That's the fingerprint of a facility still working through early-stage commissioning flows. CC Stage 3 Train 5 is stabilizing near 3,348 MMcf/d, with FERC filings for Train 6 advancing. We track all of it. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

Total US LNG feed gas climbed to 20,473 MMcf/d this morning, a fresh two-week high and extending the recovery from the 19,300 MMcf/d low hit on March 18. Freeport led the move, surging +264 MMcf/d back to 2,400 MMcf/d after a one-day dip. Golden Pass added +104 MMcf/d to 324 MMcf/d, matching its two-week high. 🧵

The Edison deal is the latest resolution in a sprawling set of Calcasieu Pass disputes. VG won against Shell and Repsol, lost to BP (damages pending), and previously settled with China's Unipec. Cases with Galp and Orlen remain outstanding. Calcasieu Pass is currently averaging ~1,743 MMcf/d. We track feed gas daily. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

Venture Global and Edison have settled their Calcasieu Pass arbitration. VG will deliver additional cargoes beyond the existing 1 MTPA, 20-year contract, with the first extra cargo headed to Italy's Adriatic LNG terminal in May 2026. Our read: Edison is likely looking to backfill supply after Qatar's force majeure risk at Ras Laffan. #NatGas #LNG

Meanwhile, a Commonwealth LNG executive says FID is now "weeks rather than months away" and on track for 2Q26. The project has contracted 7 MTPA of its 9.5 MTPA capacity. A positive FID would put first commissioning volumes on track for as early as 2029. From FID to first cargo, from British Columbia to Louisiana, Criterion tracks LNG project developments and the pipeline flows behind them. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

Two LNG export projects targeting 2026 FIDs had signficant updates this week: LNG Canada and Coastal GasLink just agreed on a commercial structure to double pipeline capacity from 2.1 Bcf/d to 4.5 Bcf/d via five new compressor stations. LNG Canada Phase 2 FID is broadly expected later this year. That would take nameplate capacity from 14 MTPA to 28 MTPA.

Transco extended the Zone 3 Mainline B maintenance outage on CS 60 (Comite River Digs) — new end date pushed from March 26 to April 6. OpCap stays capped at 1,700 Mdt/d through early April. We track Transco corridor flows daily -> criterionrsch.com #NatGas

Two overlapping events set to tighten Sabine Pass inflows in April: Creole Trail pigging runs: April 7-8 NGPL East of 302 outage: all of April Sabine Pass is currently running at 4,877 MMcf/d. Watch this corridor through the month, especially with Cheniere considering deferring their planned outages at the plant amidst the global LNG scenario. For more intel: criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

Golden Pass Train 1 swung from 167 MMcf/d Monday to 323 MMcf/d today, matching its two-week high. Day-to-day commissioning volatility is still very real, but the directional trend is up. We track Golden Pass feed gas daily. criterionrsch.com #NatGas #LNG

Gas-fired generation is doing the heavy lifting as shoulder season sets in. Even as total demand fell 4.1 Bcf/d yesterday on warmer temps, power burn added +0.8 to 33.1 Bcf/d. ResComm was behind most of today's S&D swing, shedding 5.1 Bcf/d as gas burns rose. Even so, wind and solar output across ERCOT and other regions provide headwinds to gas. criterionrsch.com #NatGas