
Giacomo P.
137 posts

Giacomo P.
@Pitichiu
25 years old from Padova, Italy. Videogames and meme lover. Also studying Economy at Ca'Foscari University in Venice.
Katılım Mayıs 2014
118 Takip Edilen53 Takipçiler

@aleabitoreddit do you think entering NBIS at current share price is worth it if someone is planning to keep it for the long run?
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Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing.
Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years.
If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid.
By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent.
If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate.
NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick.
Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.
Andromeda@SebastianS79509
@aleabitoreddit $NBIS You gave me NBIS at 80 i made my biggest position on it like 100k i know you said its for you an 2-5 year play i dont know if i should trim now or hold . Thank you for this❤️ what is your way for NBIS ?
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@aleabitoreddit I just read TLDR: Exteremely Bullish
That’s all I want to hear 👂
$SIVE when will market open though ?
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$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis.
TLDR: Extremely Bullish.
Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development.
1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers"
For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers.
"Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion)
2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years"
$LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck.
And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi.
"The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand"
$SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know.
This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader.
VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH):
3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026"
H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET.
4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026"
$AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both.
Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales.
5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing)
FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals.
Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle.
But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE.
TLDR:
-> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck
-> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion.
-> New customers for CW lasers
-> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.

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@aleabitoreddit Started from zero mid april, today up 80% all thanks to you brother, you’re a legend.

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Would have been a generational YTD if you focused on photonics + memory anon.
Every top sector long from $EWY leaps to $AAOI is up multiple hundreds of percent.
I’ve always said Photonics + Memory was the best thematically.
Now there’s subtle architecture changes:
On photonics: pluggables -> CPO
On memory: hbm3e -> hbm4
The same two supercycles.
Different upstream bottlenecks and beneficiaries.

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Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock.
There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC)
That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC.
Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions.
And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI.
Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome.
Part of it is game theory for share accumulation.
Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers).
And US institutions now want exposure.
OrangeGroveCapital@OGCapital25
Also feels like there’s an infinite TWAP on $SIVE Price goes up, long time holders sell, price goes up even more. Feel like large institutional bids averaging their buys.
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This has gotta be the dumbest selloff reason… someone could have provided?
I am 99% sure names like $AAOI or $TSEM couldn’t care less about one internal leak of OpenAI’s high flying goals.
But algorithms go reeee when they see mainstream media narratives like this.
Perfect example on why nobody trusts them anymore for fully accurate reporting.
That being said, corrections are always healthy to make higher highs.

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It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some:
Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start).
Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle:
-> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first
I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y)
-> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable)
-> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now)
-> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years.
Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything.
But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different.
For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML.
There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things.
But you're extremely early to new architecture generations.
What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free.
Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.
Rabbit@rabbitrun97o
@aleabitoreddit Missed the opportunity to make money by investing in photonics. Do you think there is 50% upside from here?
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@StockSavvyShay @fiscal_ai $NVDA would need to gain 4 Trillion in market cap to double, $AMD only needs to do about 1/10 of that to double. $NVDA is just to big their is not much more they can do.
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@joinautopilot @burrytracker Also, Considering the recent purchases of NKE shares, how would you view Tim Cook as the new CEO of Nike 👀
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@burrytracker @joinautopilot Let’s hope innovation returns to the center of Apple’s product development
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@joinautopilot I would say he was a good CEO overall but he had extremely hard shoes to fill
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