Matt Downs

The final tally is in.... I made $14,718 as a part time sports bettor in the month of November. The best part is, I spend 1-2 hours a day placing bets. Want to know my process? Here's a thread on exactly how I do it.... A 🧵 [🔖bookmark for later]

Big thanks to @UpsideTools for another one 🔥 Just swept @Pick6 on baseball! Their new updated UI is clean and makes choosing props so much easier 💰 If you want this edge use code carlos — link in bio! 🥶

@Ch_is_here You tailing??

@PlusEV 🙏

Pick6 13X🎯 The 30% MLB boost completely changes the math on this slip.... We only need each leg priced around -111 to clear. Link to tail in Replies 👇

Link to tail: upside.tools/go/24x7q7 Play #1 - Trey Yesavage UNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs Recorded: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools: The optimizer has this at 53.7% to hit. Normally a 4 man Pick6 needs 56.1% per leg to break even. With the 30% boost taking this payout from 10X to 13X, the average breakeven drops to roughly -111 per leg....52.6%+. The market is already charging as high as -130 and -136 for this same under while Pick6 is still pricing it at -111. 53.7% clears what this boosted slip actually needs. That was enough for me.

Anyone need a slip for this discount?🤔 3 or 6 man?……

Link to tail: upside.tools/go/pupcpa Play #1 - Logan Gilbert UNDER 1.5 Pitching Walks: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Sniper: upside.tools/ev-sniper: This popped on the Sniper board at +2.00% EV. The market fair price is -124. Betr’s 3 man payout prices each leg at -122. Only a small gap....but we’re still getting the better side of the number. Those edges add up when you keep finding them.

Betr 6X🎯 Three unders tonight.... The +EV Sniper caught Gilbert sitting below the market price, so I’m building around it before Betr adjusts. Link to tail in Replies 👇

Best part is you can see all this data for completely free for 5 days with a 5-day free trial, here: upside.tools/?via=matt

NBA Summer league data is now available on @UpsideTools 😍 Prizepicks, Underdog, Fanduel, Pick6, and so much more.... Crazy edge @thomasjordaniv found already earlier this morning👀

🚨 SATURDAY MORNING LIVE STREAM 🚨 It's early but I'm live and building slips using @UpsideTools to find the best value! Get your ass up, get some coffee and join me 🙂 LETS GO 👇 twitch.tv/tjj530

Link to tail: upside.tools/go/gcnidx

$10 -> $64💣 Taking a gamble on this long shot attempt on sleeper. Link to tail in the replies👇

Link to tail: upside.tools/go/i9j776 Play #1 - Courtney Vandersloot UNDER 5.5 Assists: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools: Novig is sitting at -194 on this exact line. Pinnacle -132. DraftKings -124. Rebet -124. We get the same under at -122 through this 3 man Betr payout. The optimizer has it at 55.3% to hit after devigging the market odds. Betr only needs 54.95% per leg here. Novig is clearly the strongest signal....but the rest of the board is leaning under too. Taking the cheaper price.

Betr 6X🎯 Novig is making people lay -194 on Vandersloot under.... Betr is STILL letting us add the same side to a 6X slip at the standard price😭 Link to tail in Replies 👇

Link to tail: upside.tools/go/fc5gj7 Play #1 - Brian Navarrete UNDER 0.5 Hits: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Optimizer: upside.tools: Novig is sitting at -127. ProphetX is sitting at -127. Pick6 gives us the same under at -122 through the 3 man payout. The optimizer has it at 54.9% after devigging the market, basically right on the 54.95% breakeven by itself. The Goodman discounted projection is what gives the full slip more room.

Pick6 6X🎯 using the Goodman stat slice getting bumped from 1.5 down to 0.5 H+R+RBI.... Then Navarrete's under is backed by the sharp market. Using the promo to build around numbers that already clear the market check😎 Link to tail in Replies 👇

Link to tail: upside.tools/go/3nrvab Play #1 - Patrick Bailey OVER 0.5 Hits: taken from the @UpsideTools +EV Sniper: upside.tools/ev-sniper: The market fair price is -123 on Bailey recording at least one total base. A PrizePicks 3 man prices each leg at -122, so this one barely clears the market check. The Sniper has it labeled as a small edge, which is exactly what it is. Still on the right side of fair value.

PrizePicks 6X🎯 The +EV Sniper caught a small edge on Bailey before the market moved.... Nothing massive here. Just another number sitting slightly better than fair value. Link to tail in Replies 👇

@shampoomaster21 Got you John

@PlusEV Yes plz king Matt

I didn’t forget about flex Friday. Anyone need a 6-Flex?🤔

Link to tail: upside.tools/go/xfcd1b Play #1 - Erling Haaland UNDER 0.5 Goals: taken from the @UpsideTools Whale Watch: upside.tools/whale-watch: $14.4K in whale volume came in above our breakeven. The biggest clip was $11,850 at -122 on Polymarket, with another $1,582 laid at -127 and $975 at -120 on Novig. We're getting the same under at -122 through the 3 man Betr payout....whales are paying equal or worse prices just to get on it. That's enough intel for me.

Betr 6X🎯 $14.4K in whale volume is already sitting on Haaland under 0.5 goals.... Building the slip around that one😭 Link to tail in Replies 👇