Pnaw
5 posts
DON’T PANIC AMPLIBROS $AMPG . It’s been a great week and we are still holding over $8 nice and strong.
It was always going to be a mixed day with $SPCX IPO.
Next week we will push for $10. Slow and steady is the way forward to $50
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The most powerful nation on Earth can put a rover on Mars, build the world's best fighter jets, and design the chips behind the entire AI boom.
But it cannot build the radio its own 5G networks run on. Every single company that makes them is foreign: $NOK, $ERIC, Samsung, Huawei.
A critical security flaw with Edge AI around the corner.
Let that sink in. 🧵👇
Here's the uncomfortable truth most people never think about.
Look at who builds the world's wireless radios, the hardware sitting on every cell tower, carrying every call, every text, every byte of data a nation moves:
🇨🇳 Huawei & ZTE — China.
🇫🇮 Nokia — Finland.
🇸🇪 Ericsson — Sweden.
🇰🇷 Samsung — South Korea.
Not one of them is American.
Start with the obvious one.
Huawei and ZTE?
The US already tore them out of its networks, Chinese hardware, espionage and backdoor fears, an adversary potentially sitting inside the nation's nervous system.
Banned.
Gone.
The right call.
But here's the part nobody talks about: even the friendly names are foreign.
Nokia.
Ericsson.
Samsung.
Allies, yes. Trusted, yes.
But the backbone of American communications is still built by foreign hands.
For decades, that was an acceptable risk.
The network just moved phone calls and data.
Annoying to depend on foreigners for, but survivable.
That era is ending.
And this is the part almost nobody has connected yet.
AI is about to become everything.
And the next phase of AI doesn't live in a data center in the desert, it lives at the EDGE.
On the towers.
Next to you.
Why?
Because the most important AI can't wait.
A self-driving car, a battlefield drone, a surgical robot, a factory floor, they need answers in milliseconds, processed locally, not on a round-trip to some distant cloud.
That's Edge AI.
And the place it physically runs is the radio network itself.
It will control cars.
It will control drones.
it will control humanoids.
Or whatever they build with AI.
Do you get it now?
This is the shift the whole industry calls AI-RAN: the cell tower stops being a dumb pipe and becomes a distributed AI computer.
The radio layer becomes the nervous system of the entire AI economy.
So now re-read the problem.
When that network was just carrying texts, foreign-built radios were a tolerable risk.
But when that same network becomes the real-time AI fabric running your cars, your factories, your power grid, your military's autonomous systems, foreign control of that layer stops being an inconvenience and becomes an existential one.
You cannot run a nation's AI nervous system on hardware you don't control, can't fully audit, and didn't build.
A single compromised layer there isn't a data breach, it's a kill switch on the economy.
That is exactly why Washington moved. It funded Open RAN, an open, auditable, multi-vendor architecture that breaks the foreign monopoly and lets American companies supply trusted pieces.
And it stood up Open6G, a DoD-funded hub to build a domestic foundation for the AI-native 6G era.
One problem: you can't build an American radio supply chain if no American company makes the radio.
And at the hardest, most advanced spec, the 64T64R Massive MIMO radio that AI-RAN runs on, there was exactly one.
AmpliTech.
$AMPG.
The only American company to design and commercialize it.
Inside the DoD-funded hub.
Defense-qualified; Lockheed, Northrop, L3Harris, Boeing. Already deployed on a Tier-1 carrier (alongside Samsung, the American piece in the open mix).
Already tested running AI-RAN with NVIDIA's compute on top.
So this was never really about beating Nokia or Ericsson.
It's about a superpower realizing that in an AI-everything world, the radio is no longer a pipe, it's the foundation of national power.
And at that foundation, in America, exactly one company stands.
When AI becomes everything, the edge becomes everything. And the edge runs on the radio.
There's only one American one.
Not financial advice. I'm long $AMPG. DYOR. 📡
ChinoAleman@chinoalemano
You're about to see a wave of FUD on $AMPG. It always shows up when a small ticker gets popular. It happened with $AXTI at 15. It happened with $SIVE at 15. And it'll come in all flavors. Some playing the innocent sheep, "just asking questions," "genuinely curious why it ran", concern-trolling in a soft voice Others going straight for the throat: aggressive, dismissive, calling the whole thing a scam. Different masks, same goal. Because most of it is bad-faith noise hunting for your attention, your replies, your shares, and a pullback because they missed the entry. Don't feed that. But don't plug your ears either, know the real risks cold, and let the facts do the work. So here's the whole picture, good and bad. 🧵 ━━━━━━━━━━ 🇨🇦 TELUS — THE PART ALREADY ON THE INCOME STATEMENT This is the one most people haven't connected. AmpliTech isn't pitching Telus. It's designed into its network. Straight from Telus's own VP of Wireless Strategy: Every Open RAN site on Telus runs a combination of Samsung AND AmpliTech antennas. Of the 5 radios per sector, 2 are AmpliTech's (the FDD mid-band units). Live, deployed, multi-vendor hardware, sitting next to Samsung on a Tier-1 carrier. And the kicker: only ~15% of Telus's relevant sites are Open RAN today. That's the starting line, not the ceiling. Every new Open RAN site means more AmpliTech radios in the ground. The seat is already won, it scales with the ramp. ━━━━━━━━━━ 🧩 WHERE THAT RADIO CAME FROM In March 2025, AMPG bought the full IP behind its 5G O-RAN radios from a private company, Titan Crest, for $8M ($3M cash, $5M stock). The genius part: the bulk only triggered once a real Tier-1, Telus, placed its order. They paid for validated tech only after the customer was real, then made it in the USA. On the final milestone they own that IP outright, plus a 10-year non-compete. Years of R&D, skipped. ━━━━━━━━━━ 🇺🇸 WHY WASHINGTON WANTS THIS COMPANY TO EXIST The world's radio market is dominated by Nokia (Finnish 🇫🇮), Ericsson (Swedish 🇸🇪), Huawei (Chinese 🇨🇳, banned in the US). America's critical wireless infrastructure runs on foreign gear, a national-security problem. That's why the US funds Open RAN: an open architecture lets American companies supply trusted pieces. AMPG is the only US company to commercialize a 64T64R Massive MIMO O-RAN radio. The American answer, in an architecture the government is actively pushing. ━━━━━━━━━━ 📡 NVIDIA — THE RELATIONSHIP PEOPLE UNDERRATE AMPG's 64T64R radio was the hardware in the world's first open-source AI-RAN demo, running hand-in-hand with NVIDIA's Aerial software, inside Open6G, the DoD-funded hub at Northeastern. And NVIDIA is now pushing to put GPU compute inside the radio itself, but NVIDIA doesn't make radios. It makes the brain, not the body. AMPG makes the body that brain runs on. They've already worked together, and AMPG just added NVIDIA to its "Customers" wall. (Honest: a collaboration/demo, not a signed supply deal, but the direction is loud.) ━━━━━━━━━━ 🛰️ AMAZON / KUIPER — THE BREADCRUMBS Dec 2024: AMPG disclosed it shipped space-qualified amplifiers to an unnamed "Fortune 50 satellite systems provider," for a LEO constellation, tens of thousands of units expected. The only Fortune 50 building its own LEO network is Amazon (Project Kuiper). And as of this month, Amazon is on AMPG's customer wall too. (Honest: still a deduction, still a prototype, but the dots keep pointing the same way.) ━━━━━━━━━━ ⚛️ QUANTUM — THE QUIET OPTION Superconducting qubits (IBM, Google) are read out through cryogenic amplifiers at 4 Kelvin, where almost every amplifier fails. AMPG is the only American maker of them, and the CEO named Google and IBM as proof-of-concept recipients. (Honest: proof-of-concept, no production revenue yet. Pure optionality, but real.) ━━━━━━━━━━ 🏛️ THE CUSTOMER WALL (straight from their site) These are the logos AmpliTech itself puts under "Customers" on its own site: → Tech & AI: NVIDIA, IBM, Amazon, Fujitsu, HTC → Defense & aerospace: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, Boeing, CPI → Research & academia: Northeastern, Georgia Tech, University of Edinburgh, Digital Catapult → Comms & media: Globecomm, Paramount, DiscoveryPlus, Disney Channel → Plus C2Tech, Greins, and others Read that list again. A sub-$200M company putting NVIDIA, IBM, Amazon, Lockheed and Northrop on its own customer wall. Military approved. Gov approved. ━━━━━━━━━━ 💰 THE FUNDAMENTALS ➟ Debt-free. ~$18M cash. ➟ Gross margins 33% → 48%. ➟ $118M in LOIs across multiple carriers. ➟ Founder Fawad Maqbool started with $2 in 2002, still owns ~10%+, and hasn't sold a single share. ➟ Managment said they will close deals this quarter, *maybe* straight PoS, no LOIs. ━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 WHERE I PERSONALLY STAND I've done the work. Every angle of FUD you can throw. I've already turned over myself; the material weakness, the dilution, the concentration, the "it's just a demo," all of it. None of it is new to me. And I put my own money here anyway. And I'm not locked in. I don't owe anything to Fawad. I'm already massively green. I could just sell, and that's it. Next. That's the part that should tell you everything: if I were scared, if any of that FUD actually broke the thesis, I wouldn't be posting through it. I'd just sell. Quietly. Or loudly. So people follow my next "call". Done. I'm not selling. I'm holding. Because after turning over every stone, my honest read isn't even close: this thing is completely undervalued. And the way it's positioned, designed-in at Telus, the only US 64T64R radio, NVIDIA in the loop, Kuiper breadcrumbs, the only American name in cryogenic quantum, I don't see what stops it. ━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 THE WHOLE BOARD A sub-$200M, debt-free, made-in-USA company already printing revenue at Telus, with AI-RAN, space and quantum stacked on top as optionality, all at the very start of the curve. Don't panic at the noise, and don't blindly cheer the hype. Just know the company better than both. Conviction built on facts doesn't flinch at a comment section. Massively undervalued. Not financial advice. I'm long $AMPG. DYOR.
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$SIVE is more than a "fabless IP designer at the end of the chain" and is exposed to (and positioned in) the laser constraint. You are ignoring the confirmed CW laser supply tightness, the value of specific qualifications/design wins in CPO arrays, and $SIVE manufacturing foothold (own fab + Win). It's not irrelevant.
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Earlier this morning, I shared my thoughts on Substack about bottlenecks in general, and specifically about InP and $SIVE. Based on the feedback, the article was well received. If you’re interested, you can find it directly here
These are just my thoughts, and I don’t claim to be always right.
open.substack.com/pub/fwriter/p/…
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@aleabitoreddit @nexefye Any price targets for the next few years for $SIVE
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It's likely pure algorithmic, but another .76% of the float was shorted yesterday.
Algorithms tend to miss a lot of the nuances of supply chain mapping like $AMD going with $GFS for CPO.
Then $SIVE listed as 1 of 2 laser suppliers in $GFS image presentations. This is called alpha though since you know something others don't.
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I'm still laughing how much Swedish hate their own frontier companies so much.
That they write hit pieces every day on $SIVE.
This one was entertaining: Local journalists show up to an empty $SIVE administrative building uninvited.
Because they can't fathom the CEO is in Silicon Valley or design team is working on US Gov CHIPS act dev in the US. And because there weren't many cars parked outside + CFO wouldn't take questions about secretive hyperscaler deal financials.
They wrote a random negative hit piece.
By repeating "There are several who make lasers like these and Sivers are far from alone".
Several like $LITE, $COHR, $60B+ companies.
and reported earlier that "CPO is nothing special, it's been around for years."
While GS projects CPO going from $1B -> $91B TAM over the next two years.
Even put "Plans" in quotation marks because they didn't think Sivers is supplying lasers to $JBL 1.6T LRO.
IMO, $SIVE ends up as a $10B+ company next year, especially if they follow what $LITE / $COHR did with downstream IP integration to capture more of CPO module BOM.
Just don't think Swedish people understand hyperscaler supply chains, concept of forward growth, or the fact that employee count doesn't equate to revenue.
Transfer of control from local Swedish -> West is always appreciated, as this was a majority owned local retail company before.
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