Brad West@BradWestPoCo
The House of Cards in B.C.’s Economy
British Columbia, and much of the country, is confronting the consequences of an economic model that was never built to last. For years, we have been told a comforting story about growth — that as long as cranes dot the skyline and property values climb, prosperity will follow. But beneath that veneer lies a stark truth: our economy is not driven by value-added manufacturing, groundbreaking technology, innovation, or by unlocking our vast natural resource potential. It is built almost entirely on real estate and relentless population growth driven by mass immigration. And it relies on the building and selling of homes to the next wave of newcomers.
This is not diversification. This is dependency. And like all dependencies, it eventually demands a price.
The Shift Away from Real Wealth Creation
In the not-too-distant past, B.C.’s prosperity came from sectors that created enduring value: forestry and mining that supplied the world; fisheries that sustained communities; manufacturing that turned raw materials into products; and, in more recent years, tech companies that could compete globally.
Today, those industries are shadows of their former selves in our economic mix — thanks, in part, to the strangulation of over-regulation and inordinately lengthy approval processes that are easily weaponized by those ideologically opposed to resource extraction. Their demise is not a naturally occurring phenomenon — and it is reversible — but it reflects the agenda and decisions of policymakers. In their place, real estate has become the dominant force, representing nearly 30% of B.C.’s GDP with its ancillary sectors. That’s a hell of a lot of eggs in a single basket, and the province’s balance sheet has become frighteningly tied to this cycle.
As the government oversaw this reorganization of the economy, it sent out the proverbial bat signal that investment capital didn’t belong in business development, but in land. Message received. Billions upon billions poured into bidding up land prices. Among the many consequences of this misallocation of capital are high land values squeezing out industrial employers and gnawing away at industrial land, weakening our capacity to make and export things. Today, industrial land makes up barely 4% of Metro Vancouver’s landmass.
Mass Immigration as Fuel for the Model
This new growth machine runs on people — specifically, the rapid influx of newcomers. In theory, immigration is a tool to strengthen an economy, replenish a workforce, and foster innovation. But in practice, B.C. and Canada have relied on it as the primary fuel for real estate demand. And what a record they’ve set. In 2023 alone, Canada added 1.27 million people — the most in 66 years, and almost entirely through immigration. No other G7 country even comes close.
The country’s notorious Temporary Foreign Worker Program and unprecedented number of International Students have figured prominently in this population surge, and programs once intended to fill specific gaps or foster academic exchange, have morphed into de facto population pipelines.
It’s all about feeding the beast: bring in more people than the market can comfortably absorb, then build and sell homes to meet the stimulated demand. Rising prices are framed as a sign of economic health, when in reality, they are a sign of scarcity and strain. In B.C., the government has clung to this model by throwing community planning out the window with a series of legislation that overrides local decision-making and forces blanket upzoning without regard for infrastructure capacity or livability.
But all the smoke and mirrors in the world can’t obscure the reality of where this has led us. Hospital emergency rooms close not sporadically, but routinely. More and more students are educated in portables rather than properly resourced schools. Infrastructure — from roads and public transit to sewers and utilities — is under immense strain.
