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tas inch.ink
353 posts
How to trade SAFELY to take less, but GUARANTEED in the plus?
Example from the current market on Polymarket: "How many earthquakes 6.5+ from February 16 to 22"
Analytical probability of geocenters:
• 0 — ~74%
• 1 — ~21–22%
• 2 — ~3%
• 3+ — <5%
I reject 2+ (if in life it happens with a chance of 1–3% — go to church 😅)
I take only the first two options — and in any case in the plus.
How to do it:
I buy the level of the number of shares at 0 and at 1 so that the sum of the prices is < 100¢
example:
1000 shares at 0 at 57¢ → $570
1000 shares at 1 at 33¢ → $330
Total spent $900
With any result (0 or 1) you get $1000 → +$100 guaranteed (minus commission ~2–3%).
This is not x100, but it is a stable plus without stress.
Who else "hedges" low-risk options on Polymarket like this?
How many times have you done it and what is your average %?
@Polymarket
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Nice strategy
PS@psanix
How to trade SAFELY to take less, but GUARANTEED in the plus? Example from the current market on Polymarket: "How many earthquakes 6.5+ from February 16 to 22" Analytical probability of geocenters: • 0 — ~74% • 1 — ~21–22% • 2 — ~3% • 3+ — <5% I reject 2+ (if in life it happens with a chance of 1–3% — go to church 😅) I take only the first two options — and in any case in the plus. How to do it: I buy the level of the number of shares at 0 and at 1 so that the sum of the prices is < 100¢ example: 1000 shares at 0 at 57¢ → $570 1000 shares at 1 at 33¢ → $330 Total spent $900 With any result (0 or 1) you get $1000 → +$100 guaranteed (minus commission ~2–3%). This is not x100, but it is a stable plus without stress. Who else "hedges" low-risk options on Polymarket like this? How many times have you done it and what is your average %? @Polymarket
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