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@PointsGo5s

We’re here for news, for peace, and for the world — remaining neutral

Katılım Nisan 2021
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NBC News, citing a senior U.S. administration official, reports that Donald Trump asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back attacks on Lebanon in order to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran. According to the source, the phone call came after Netanyahu publicly stated the previous day that Israel would continue heavy strikes on Lebanon despite the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. 🗣 Following the call with Trump, the Israeli prime minister reportedly ordered the start of direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible,” according to local media. The talks are expected to focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peace between Israel and Lebanon. 🗣 In addition, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that the Islamic Republic had been “on the verge of retaliation” against Israeli strikes in Lebanon until Pakistan—a mediator in the negotiations—intervened. “Pakistan intervened and conveyed messages indicating that the U.S. would restrain Israel. The U.S. must persuade Israel to halt its attacks on Lebanon,” he said. ❗️ On the night of April 8, Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Nevertheless, there have been reports of Iranian UAV incursions into airspace and continued strikes in Lebanon. Media outlets also report that Iran may withdraw from the ceasefire if Israel continues to violate it through attacks on Lebanon.
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Details of the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran are far more complex than initially expected, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said on Wednesday. “We are trying to reach a solid and effective ceasefire agreement. I think this is something both sides have expressed a willingness for. The details regarding duration, who will implement it, and which combat zones it will cover appear to be somewhat more ambiguous,” Landau said at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council. Negotiations are currently ongoing to clarify these details, he added. “I remain very hopeful. Again, you never know for certain. Issues like this are always preliminary, and Iran is currently less transparent than usual. I think we are making every effort to bring the current military campaign to an end,” the diplomat said.
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“Growth will be slower — even if the new world stabilizes,” reports the Financial Times. The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy will not see a “quick and painless return to the status quo,” even if peace between the U.S. and Iran is maintained. Kristalina Georgieva stated that in all scenarios, global economic growth is expected to remain below pre-war levels due to a combination of factors such as “infrastructure damage, supply disruptions, loss of confidence, and other long-term consequences.” “Without this shock, we would have raised our global growth forecast,” the IMF Managing Director said in Washington ahead of the Fund’s Spring Meetings. “But now, even our most optimistic scenario predicts a downward revision to growth forecasts,” Georgieva concluded.
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Pakistan and Iran — Local media report that Pakistan will provide fighter jet escort, along with early warning systems and electronic warfare support, for an Iranian delegation traveling from Pakistan back to Iran.
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Reuters reports, citing European diplomats, that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has informed the governments of several countries that Donald Trump wants to receive, in the coming days, details of their commitments to ensuring the safety of maritime operations in the Strait of Hormuz. ---------------------------- A senior Iranian official said that Iran had been ready to respond to ceasefire violations overnight, but Pakistan intervened, Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told Tehran Times.
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Russia has increased its oil export revenues to the highest level since June 2022, despite Ukraine’s attacks on its ports, Bloomberg reports. Between March 8 and April 5, Russia exported an average of 3.35 million barrels of oil per day—the highest level since June 2022. Over this period, the country earned about $2.02 billion per week from exports. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz blocked more than 12 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude in the Persian Gulf and helped Russia clear its seaborne oil inventories, as refineries urgently sought alternative supplies. However, oil prices may decline if the ceasefire in the Middle East holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Although Iran has officially stated that exports through the strait will be significantly reduced. In addition, Ukrainian strikes on export infrastructure are expected to affect export volumes and related revenues, according to the report.
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According to Reuters, revenue from Russia’s largest oil tax is expected to double to about $9 billion in April, driven by the oil market crisis caused by U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran. Russia’s mineral extraction tax is projected to rise to around 700 billion rubles ($9 billion) in April, up from 327 billion rubles in March. A year earlier, the figure was about 10% lower. For the full year 2026, Russia is expected to collect 7.9 trillion rubles from this tax. The average price of Russia’s Urals oil, which is used for taxation, rose to $77 per barrel in March—the highest level since October 2023. This is 73% higher than the $44.59 per barrel recorded in February and exceeds the $59 per barrel projected in Russia’s state budget for this year. Since March prices are used to calculate April taxes, this explains the sharp increase in tax revenues. However, as previously reported, Ukrainian attacks on Russian export ports are unlikely to significantly affect current budget revenues, because the mineral extraction tax is applied at the point of production, regardless of how much oil is ultimately exported.

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According to Reuters, revenue from Russia’s largest oil tax is expected to double to about $9 billion in April, driven by the oil market crisis caused by U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran. Russia’s mineral extraction tax is projected to rise to around 700 billion rubles ($9 billion) in April, up from 327 billion rubles in March. A year earlier, the figure was about 10% lower. For the full year 2026, Russia is expected to collect 7.9 trillion rubles from this tax. The average price of Russia’s Urals oil, which is used for taxation, rose to $77 per barrel in March—the highest level since October 2023. This is 73% higher than the $44.59 per barrel recorded in February and exceeds the $59 per barrel projected in Russia’s state budget for this year. Since March prices are used to calculate April taxes, this explains the sharp increase in tax revenues. However, as previously reported, Ukrainian attacks on Russian export ports are unlikely to significantly affect current budget revenues, because the mineral extraction tax is applied at the point of production, regardless of how much oil is ultimately exported.
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A senior Iranian source said that under the peace agreement, Iran has agreed to allow no more than 15 vessels per day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, a source cited by The Wall Street Journal reported a similar figure. Before the conflict began, an average of about 135 ships per day transited the strait. In addition, the source said Iran insists that any end to the war must be approved by the United Nations Security Council, and that all assets must be released from sanctions freezes.
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“This is precisely the accumulation of political capital that Beijing wanted ahead of the postponed summit.” China helped Donald Trump secure Iran’s agreement — Bloomberg. As the deadline set by Trump for the destruction of Iran’s “entire civilization” was approaching, it became clear that only one country had enough influence to persuade Tehran to de-escalate: America’s main rival, China. Hours after the ceasefire announcement mediated by Pakistan, Iranian officials reportedly said their agreement was due to last-minute efforts by China—a claim that Trump quickly confirmed. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked China for its support, and the White House stated that Beijing’s role in securing the ceasefire was at the “highest level” between the U.S. and China. China has neither confirmed nor denied reports of its central role in the mediation, and Xi Jinping has yet to comment publicly on the conflict, which disrupted roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. However, the decision to intervene reflects Beijing’s ability to maintain strong ties with Iran, Gulf states, and Trump, and marks a departure from China’s long-standing practice of staying away from such conflicts. According to Zoey Liu, this shift is driven by economic reasons, as the conflict threatens China’s energy supply and broader economy. “China acted because the war in Iran directly threatened the economic conditions on which its growth and domestic political stability depend… Trump’s public acknowledgment of China’s role is exactly the accumulation of political capital that Beijing wanted ahead of the postponed summit,” Liu said.
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Der Spiegel, citing its sources, reports that in the coming days Donald Trump will demand that Europe commit to deploying warships or other forces to the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, this demand—effectively an ultimatum—was conveyed to European countries by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte following a conversation with Trump. However, at least Germany has indicated it is willing to participate in a joint mission in the strait, but only with approval from the United Nations and under the condition of a lasting ceasefire or a peace agreement (notably, neither condition has been met so far, and Russia and China would almost certainly block a UN decision). According to the German outlet, Trump has threatened to withdraw U.S. troops from countries opposing a war with Iran. The focus could be on Spain and possibly Germany, which Trump recalls due to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stating that this is “not our war.”
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Europe fears it will have to pay the price for the consequences of Donald Trump’s deal with Iran — Politico. From Gaza to Ukraine, Donald Trump has often left Europe to deal with the aftermath. According to five diplomats and officials from the European Union, after the U.S. president announced a ceasefire with Iran, the EU fears a repeat of a similar situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom may have to pay for a costly operation to escort ships and conduct mine-clearing in the strait, and their commercial vessels may face significant fees—previously nonexistent—just to pass through. “This is a pattern. In Gaza, we will have to pay for reconstruction. In Ukraine, we are paying for the war—essentially alone at the moment. Now, we may have to pay to clean up the Strait of Hormuz,” said Nacho Sánchez Amor, a Spanish Socialist lawmaker and member of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee. If a mine-clearing operation is not required, Europe may still feel the impact of the war on energy supplies for some time.
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The hardline actions of Israel in Lebanon go beyond the concept of self-defense and cannot justify such widespread destruction, said Kaja Kallas. Tel Aviv’s strikes on Lebanon yesterday have put the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran at risk, Kallas said. According to the latest figures, the number of injured has reached 1,165, with around 260 people killed. “The ceasefire with Iran must be extended to Lebanon,” she wrote on X. At the same time, according to the EU’s top diplomat, Lebanon has been “drawn into the war” by Hezbollah.
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Donald Trump may extend waivers easing sanctions on oil from Russia and Iran, which are set to expire on April 11 and April 19 respectively, according to Semafor. The U.S. president wrote on Wednesday that the United States is “discussing tariff and sanctions relief with Iran.” “It is hard for me to imagine a world in which the Trump administration would reimpose strict measures on Russian oil again, at least in the run-up to the midterm elections,” said Edward Fishman, who previously worked on sanctions issues at the State Department and the Treasury during the Obama administration. “What Iran is demonstrating is that there are not just two options: either accept U.S. political demands or face sanctions pressure… There is a third option — to inflict enough economic pain on the United States that Washington considers easing sanctions to reduce the pressure on itself.”
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Europeans see a greater threat in the United States than in China. According to a new survey conducted by Politico Pulse across six of the largest European Union countries, the United States under Donald Trump is viewed more as a threat than an ally. Only 12% of respondents in March in Poland, Spain, Belgium, France, Germany, and Italy considered the U.S. a close ally, while 36% viewed it as a threat. By comparison, China was seen as a threat by 29% of respondents across the six countries. The survey also highlights a growing contradiction at the core of European security policy. Voters want Europe to be better equipped and more independent as trust in the U.S. declines, but their enthusiasm wanes if defense requires personal sacrifice, increased spending, or unlimited support for Ukraine. Respondents in Spain expressed the most negative views toward the U.S., with 51% saying Washington is a threat to Europe. In Italy, 46% said the same, followed by Belgium (42%), France (37%), and Germany (30%). Poland — which borders Russia and sees its alliance with the U.S. as a key security guarantee — was the exception, with only 13% viewing the U.S. as a threat. Meanwhile, Russia is seen as the clear adversary, with 70% of all respondents considering it a threat.
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Donald Trump said that The New York Times and CNN had published an inaccurate peace plan between the United States and Iran. “The failing New York Times and CNN reported on a completely fictitious ten-point peace plan in the negotiations with Iran, aimed at discrediting those involved in the peace process. All ten points are fake and fraudulent — disgusting losers!” the U.S. president wrote. Earlier, all ten points had been published by Iran, including: A commitment to non-aggression; Maintaining Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz; Agreement to uranium enrichment; Lifting all primary sanctions; Lifting all secondary sanctions; Terminating all United Nations Security Council resolutions; Ending all International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors resolutions; Compensation for Iran; Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region; Ending wars on all fronts, including the conflict against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with RAI that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner “have spent too much time” with Vladimir Putin and trust him, which is why Donald Trump and his team “cannot truly understand what Russia wants.” According to Zelenskyy, “some Americans believe that [the Donbas] means nothing to us.” However, he argued that Russia will not stop at Donbas but will attempt to seize Dnipro and Kharkiv. Zelenskyy said he tried to convince Trump’s team that Russia is helping Iran carry out attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East, but they did not believe him because “they trust” Putin. “I have spoken about this publicly. Have we received any response from the United States regarding Russia being asked to stop this? The issue is that they trust Putin. And that is unfortunate,” the Ukrainian president said. It is worth noting that Trump previously said Zelenskyy is “the last person” he needs help from regarding Iran.
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The Guardian: Russian Warship Escorts Sanctioned Tankers Through English Channel According to The Guardian, the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich escorted two sanctioned oil tankers through the English Channel yesterday. At the time, the British naval vessel RFA Tideforce was reportedly following behind. The newspaper suggested that the move demonstrates that Vladimir Putin is “mocking” Keir Starmer, who had vowed to seize sanctioned Russian vessels. On Wednesday, The Telegraph also reported spotting two other sanctioned tankers moving in the opposite direction through the channel. Notably, last month, Starmer granted British special units the authority to detain the so-called “rust fleet” — vessels used to transport illicit oil supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine — and pledged to “hit harder” against the shadow fleet if it entered British waters. However, so far, the UK has not detained any Russian vessels.

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Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that average Brent crude oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel by the end of the year if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, according to Bloomberg. According to the report, based on the bank’s forecasts, in such a downside scenario Brent would average above $100 per barrel in the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs’ base case assumes that energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will begin to recover by the end of next week, with exports from the Persian Gulf gradually returning to pre-conflict levels within a month. In this case, analysts estimate that Brent will average $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 in the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the situation remains uncertain, with upside risks to prices still present.
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The personal secretary of Ali Yousef Harashi and the nephew of Naim Qassem have been killed in Beirut, according to a statement by the Israel Defense Forces. The IDF said it struck two key checkpoints used by Hezbollah fighters to move from north to south of the Litani River. Airstrikes also targeted around 10 weapons depots, launch sites, and headquarters belonging to the group in southern Lebanon.
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Iran has released an official map of required shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz. The map shows that vessels must travel closer to Iran’s coastline, and for the first time confirms that traditional routes are now considered dangerous due to the risk of naval mines.
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Pakistan has declared a two-day public holiday in Islamabad ahead of talks between the United States and Iran, according to Associated Press. Schools and government offices in Islamabad have been closed for two days to reduce the number of people on the streets. Authorities have imposed strict restrictions across the city, including blocking major roads connecting Islamabad with the neighboring city of Rawalpindi. In some areas, shipping containers have been placed to limit traffic and restrict public access to key locations.
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🇵🇰🇸🇦🇮🇷 A Pakistani official told Reuters that Pakistan would stand alongside Saudi Arabia under their defense pact if the conflict escalates.

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