PolicyVanguard

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PolicyVanguard

PolicyVanguard

@PolicyVanguard

Policy Research Journal

Washington,DC Katılım Ağustos 2025
23 Takip Edilen23 Takipçiler
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
There is a misunderstanding that the regime in #Iran may or shall collapse with the fall of the Supreme leader #Khamenei. However, the regime did not collapse with the death of #Khomenei who was the father of the Iranian revolution. It is because, ideological regimes don’t owe their existence to a single individual. It seems unlikely that under the current circumstances, the Iranian regime would fall. #Iran #IranProtests
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
It is being reported that US-Iran talks in #Islamabad have failed. As analyzed earlier, the positions taken by both parties have set a precedent for future talks since, the primary goal is to retain the gains achieved during war and to satisfy the domestic audience. One thing is clear, both #US and #Iran desperately want this war to end despite the reservations of certain countries, therefore, both shall return to the table soon.
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard

The upcoming US-Iran talks in #Islamabad this weekend occur amid a fragile regional context. Any agreement could influence the current ceasefire dynamics and long-term strategic positioning. Success will depend on whether the parties can bridge gaps on core issues without undermining broader alliances. Observers note that such #talks often represent incremental steps rather than definitive resolutions. Irrespective of the outcome of the talks, the positions taken by the parties involved are likely to set a precedent for future conflicts and dialogues in the region. #IslamabadTalks

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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
Talks are set to begin today. Irrespective of the outcome, Pakistan’s strategic importance has surged dramatically. Both sides have reposed trust in Islamabad, which is more than enough to bring #Pakistan back to the global high table. Meanwhile, #India’s External Affairs Minister is in the UAE seeking leverage and relevance. For the #UAE, this is largely optics — they understand that India cannot replace Pakistan due to deep, long-term strategic interests. This remains a temporary hiccup in UAE-Pakistan relations. India, however, has suffered a notable erosion of influence due to recent miscalculations — one that will take time to rectify.
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
The upcoming US-Iran talks in #Islamabad this weekend occur amid a fragile regional context. Any agreement could influence the current ceasefire dynamics and long-term strategic positioning. Success will depend on whether the parties can bridge gaps on core issues without undermining broader alliances. Observers note that such #talks often represent incremental steps rather than definitive resolutions. Irrespective of the outcome of the talks, the positions taken by the parties involved are likely to set a precedent for future conflicts and dialogues in the region. #IslamabadTalks
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
In the Islamabad talks, #Iran is expected to reiterate demands related to the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. The #US is seeking commitments on regional stability. Reports indicate varying positions among #Gulf states, with #SaudiArabia and #Qatar reportedly open to certain arrangements while Israel and the #UAE have expressed reservations. The talks highlight the complex balance of interests in the region.
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
While the full demise of the #AbrahamAccords may still seem unlikely to some observers, it has become a plausible scenario for discussion. The original proponents of the Accords, such as President #Trump and his administration, do not have the immediate political leverage to keep them going, making the framework inherently vulnerable. #WestAsia war has changed the scenario which shall also put #Israël under a lot of stress externally and internally. However, #UAE would have to reassess it’s strategic alliances to secure its national security interests
Stratheia@stratheia

The Abraham Accords are under pressure like never before. Strategic realities are catching up with political agreements. #MiddleEast #USChina #GeoEconomics stratheia.com/chinas-silent-…

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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
Recent US-#Israel strikes on #Iran have led to spillover attacks on #Gulf states, raising questions about regional security dynamics #US reliability as a partner. Gulf states appear to be deepening ties with #China. This shift highlights evolving geopolitical alignments in the #MiddleEast as the US focuses on other priorities. Read the full analysis: stratheia.com/chinas-silent-…
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
As analyzed earlier, #Iran has officially demanded control over the Strait of Hormuz and the right to collect fees from transiting ships. The #US appears ready to concede on this demand, which seems like a long-term win for Iran, #Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Reports suggest that #SaudiArabia has given its nod to this demand, despite resistance from Israel and the UAE. This new status quo does not suit #Israel or the #UAE. It is likely that in the coming months, Israel will break the ceasefire in an attempt to restore strategic balance in the region, where Iran now holds the upper hand despite its heavy military and economic losses.
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard

Amid reports of #Pakistan offering to host #US-Iran talks, #Iran continues to tightly control the Strait of Hormuz. #Tehran has signaled it views the waterway as vital to its security and is unlikely to relinquish influence there. Diplomatic efforts via intermediaries remain underway.

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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
Amid reports of #Pakistan offering to host #US-Iran talks, #Iran continues to tightly control the Strait of Hormuz. #Tehran has signaled it views the waterway as vital to its security and is unlikely to relinquish influence there. Diplomatic efforts via intermediaries remain underway.
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
Gulf monarchies now face simultaneous energy-site targeting and explicit alliance friction from Washington. Irrespective of battlefield claims, the accumulating internal pressures — elite fractures, popular unrest, proxy activation — are compressing the historic stress-test timeline. The coming months will clarify which regimes possess the institutional depth to endure without external guarantees that are visibly fraying. #GulfSecurity #IranConflict #RegionalStability
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
While the #US seems confused about its aims regarding war with #Iran, #Israel seems pretty clear which is neither regime change nor ballistic missile program rather Balkanization of Iran. As analyzed earlier, this process did not start with Iran and won’t stop at Iran unless Iranian regime manages to survive which seems to be the case.
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard

The assassination of #SaifAlIslamGaddafi son of former Libyan leader #MuammarGaddafi has kicked off the process of de facto Balkanization in #MiddleEast and #Africa However, history dictates, those regional countries which are actively supporting this Balkanization shall end up being the victims of this process themselves.

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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
The assassination of Ali #Larijani has unraveled a critical dimension of the ongoing #conflict. Far from signalling an intent to de-escalate, the targeted strike suggests that #Israel is committed to prolonging the confrontation in the immediate term. Larijani had consistently advocated a policy of strategic restraint amid the protracted war, positioning him as a potential conduit for diplomatic off-ramps. His anticipated successor—a hardliner likely to receive the endorsement of #IRGC—is expected to adopt a more uncompromising posture. This leadership transition will almost certainly complicate any #US effort to craft a coherent exit strategy, while the assassination itself functions as an unambiguous signal directed at #Washington.
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
In #multipolar reality, calls for allied participation test not loyalty but credibility. The current #Iran campaign demonstrates that external security umbrellas weaken when the patron’s will is perceived as variable and the client’s exposure is immediate and #asymmetric. Regional actors beyond the Gulf — including #Pakistan — must internalise this lesson: sustainable strategy prioritises internal resilience over reactive entanglement in others’ attrition contests.
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
Gulf interceptor tallies and reported #US equipment withdrawals from Al Dhafra and Jebel Ali suggest the attrition phase is testing #alliance endurance faster than anticipated. Iranian barrages remain contained yet persistent; resupply chains and political will decide the next 24–48 hours.
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PolicyVanguard
PolicyVanguard@PolicyVanguard·
Asia faces asymmetric nuclear doctrines & modernisation. China upholds minimum deterrence & No-First-Use, prioritising survivability over parity. The study compares China & Pakistan’s postures via deterrence theory across minimum deterrence, assured retaliation, & escalation control. China reinforces survival; Pakistan’s tactical nukes risk instability. Lessons: restraint, credibility, sustainable modernisation. Read full article at: policyvanguard.com/index.php/pv/a…
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