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My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @ForeignAffairs
foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-mi…
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ProfTalmadge
1.1K posts
ProfTalmadge
@ProfTalmadge
MIT professor & Brookings senior fellow ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army
Washington, DC Katılım Eylül 2018
2.2K Takip Edilen24.2K Takipçiler
ProfTalmadge retweetledi
A conversation with @ProfTalmadge and @MWSBrookingsFP about the Strait of Hormuz. We don’t see the Strait opening until the conflict ends. But both sides are still escalating instead. Not good at all.
brookings.edu/articles/why-i…
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ProfTalmadge retweetledi
Brookings experts @samanthaenergy and @ProfTalmadge sat down with @MWSBrookingsFP to discuss what happens when military operations intrude on commercial operations in the Strait of Hormuz.
Read their Q&A: brook.gs/4blfQQP
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@clary_co Try to relax, Hegseth just told me everything is on plan, on track, there is no war-widening happening.
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To summarize the last 24 hours: Israel hit the South Pars gas field in Iran, leading to a qualitative escalation of Iranian hits against neighboring countries including Saudi, which in turn sharply increased the likelihood of Pakistani involvement in the war. Is DC in control?
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Caine reports in briefing this morning that US continuing to strike Iran mine warfare assets, and A-10s are hunting fast attack craft along the coast. Good that this is happening, bad that it is still necessary in week 3 of the war.
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Hegseth and Caine both state that the campaign is "on plan." Information not provided in the briefing:
- What Marines headed to the Gulf will do
- Percentage Iranian launchers or mine laying capabilities destroyed
- How war will prevent a nuclear Iran
- Whether Kharg Island attack has had any political or strategic effects on Iranian behavior
- How long war is expected to last
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ProfTalmadge retweetledi
President Trump is pressing aides and allies to find ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as gas prices rise. His best bet might be the U.S. Marine Corps. My latest wsj.com/world/iran-war…
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@McFaul I take your broader point but would push back on the starting premise that this campaign is actually disarming Iran with great effectiveness. It's week 3, and Iran is still shooting, Strait still largely closed, nuclear program largely untouched.
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The mighty militaries of the United States and Israel are disarming Iran with great effectiveness. After the war is over, how much peace will this disarmament campaign provide? 1,2,3, 5 years? Genuine question. Post links to the best experts.
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@tshugart3 This. Unless an adversary's ability to resist is destroyed through brute force, ending a war is a cooperative act that requires agreement by both sides.
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The problem with "declaring victory & ending the war" is that the loser decides when the war is over.
U.S. victory declaration or not, if Iran continues to decide who goes through the SoH unmolested, or continues to attack U.S. bases & partner countries—then the war is not over.
Kelley B. Vlahos@KelleyBVlahos
Wise words from @esaagar : “The Republican base is clearly willing to trust President Trump up to a point but remain weary of any potential escalation. As evidenced by this polling the wisest move would be to declare victory and end this immediately.”
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ProfTalmadge retweetledi
So we could’ve had a nuclear deal w/verified limits on Iran’s nuclear activities but @POTUS thought he could get a better deal. And never did.
Instead we’re in a messy regime change war w/dire economic & security impacts & an Iran with 440k of HEU. 🙄nytimes.com/2026/03/18/opi…
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But also what is the workable near term plan for reopening the strait that does involve US boots on the ground
ian bremmer@ianbremmer
i’ve yet to hear a workable near term (next 4-6 weeks) plan for how to open the strait that doesn’t involve us boots on the ground.
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ProfTalmadge retweetledi
"Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz tops the list of global energy security nightmares," wrote Caitlin Talmadge in 2008 in @IntSecHarvard. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly.
Free to read for 90 days:
direct.mit.edu/isec/article/3…
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ProfTalmadge retweetledi
Important piece from @ProfTalmadge on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz in @IntSecHarvard @BelferCenter @MIT_SSP still highly relevant today. Free to read.
The MIT Press @mitpress.bsky.social@mitpress
"Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz tops the list of global energy security nightmares," wrote Caitlin Talmadge in 2008 in @IntSecHarvard. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly. Free to read for 90 days: direct.mit.edu/isec/article/3…
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ProfTalmadge retweetledi
Potentially important development though one wonders why it didn't happen sooner.
U.S. Central Command@CENTCOM
Hours ago, U.S. forces successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles in these sites posed a risk to international shipping in the strait.
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Quite a disconnect between how much the President emphasized Iran's nuclear program as a motive for war yesterday, and the continued CENTCOM targeting updates that do not even mention the nuclear program.
Maybe the theory is that these strikes are all preparatory to some action against Iran's nuclear assets later. But there is a large disjuncture between the stated casus belli and what we're actually observing with the military campaign thus far.
U.S. Central Command@CENTCOM
Operation Epic Fury: March 16th Update
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Putting aside all the legitimate political reasons allies have for declining Trump's request that they send ships, there are legitimate military reasons to not want to conduct naval escorts close to Iran's shores in the middle of a shooting war. The mission would expose escorts to casualties and ship damage, and divert them from other naval tasks. These are major reasons the US isn't already doing escorts despite industry pleas.
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