Dr. Sarah Anderson

@Hotshot_Movie And that’s why we need people like you to translate. Thank you!

UPDATE: Massive shift in operations. SBC PIOs are the *best* in their field, but acreage & personnel numbers are meaningless to you if your home is near the fire, so I'm going to try and give you guys a more tactile understanding of what is actually *happening* on the ground and what the firefighters hope to do with this thing. The big shift in operations is that multiple divisions started aggressively fighting fire with fire, and firefighters are becoming responsible for more fire growth than the wildfire, itself. It can take a few days to prep your lines for a "backfiring" operation (which they've been doing)....you establish an advantageous line where you decide the fire should stop, then when the weather is most favorable, you walk a small bit of fire down the edge of that line, ostensibly sending it into a head-on collision with the main fire, pulling the fuels out from under its mouth before it has a chance to come at you with a head of steam on it. Firefighters in the SxSE section of the fire (Divs SS/UU) conducted massive firing operations yesterday, which I showed extensively from the fire cams. If you didn't know they were doing it, you might've panicked, because that fire activity was pretty impressive, and even for the operators it was a bit squirrely...yesterday LPF stood for Little Pucker Factor...but by the end of the operational shift, it was looking quite good, and most of that fire's edge is now checked up to their line, right where they want it. They will be looking to hold that firing line today, and there's a grip of engines out there committed to that task, so fingers crossed it holds. Farther west, in WhiskeyWhiskey, they'll be looking to connect that southeastern firing operation to the already-contained section above Neverland Ranch, as they prepare to fire off around Woodstock. Hopefully weather conditions are favorable so they can complete that task. The upper WxSW portion of the fire (Div AA/ZZ) is looking really good, and a significant chunk of black line (containment) was put in yesterday. The handline that they already have there, wrapping up and around to the Sisquoc River is looking good, as there's very little heat left in it. Continuing NE, expect Div C to be active today as they prep to fire it. A lot of the NW fire's edge there is getting cold, much of it well above the Sisquoc River and backing down slowly. They'll either want to fire off that unburned fuel and seal it up for good, or go direct where it makes more sense to do so. Immediately to the east, in Div D, there's a lot more heat a fair distance above the river, so they do have some concerns that roll-out (when burning fuels become dislodged, roll down hill, and ignite the hillside below) could cause a run and potentially spot across the river and create a headache, particularly with the typical westerly winds. Both Div C&D have been stacked with Hotshot crews in hopes that they can coordinate a somewhat complex firing operation and eliminate that headache for good. On the Northern fire line, where it's impacted the 2007 Zaca Fire footprint, growth is predictably minimal...nothing protects you better than a robust burn history...which is why there's a bit more of a problem farther SouthEast...where the fire has *not* yet reached the Zaca Fire, and is burning in an area with no recent burn history. Much more decadent fuels that will burn hot. They are planning a massive run of hand line through the San Rafael wilderness, deep into the LPF, potentially opening up the old lines from the Zaca firefight. Old containment lines are much easier to open up than just cutting fresh line through decadent brush. IF this planned line is just a contingency, it'll just be a lot of tedious work for a lot of hand crews. If this line becomes the northern edge of their "box" for the fire, that would potentially double the size of the fire, so get comfortable with seeing smoke for a while. In a perfect world, it would be great to let this thing go that far, as the fire benefits on this landscape would really benefit the LPF. But, we don't live in a perfect world, so we'll just have to wait and see. Wildfire operators are always thinking many many steps ahead. They have primary lines, secondary lines, contingency lines...these dudes play chess, and they're phenomenal at it. I hope all the impacted residents feel good knowing they're in good hands. Again, I don't know why agencies think that acreage and personnel numbers matter to anyone. You drive by the Santa Maria fairgrounds, you can see a bunch of bearded dudes camped out...you already know there's a bunch of personnel on the fire. Doesn't matter. 90% containment means nothing to you if your home is in front of that 10% of open fireline. The fire could be a billion acres for all you care, because there's only a half acre your home is sitting on that is really worrying you. It doesn't take much effort to get an operational update and yield a bit of understanding of that the fire is ACTUALLY doing , how firefighters are handling it, where it's moving, and what to expect. I live in TN now. Yeah, I grew up in SB, so I know the area well, and I spent many years on many fires...but I can just watch some fire cams 2000 miles away and read the IAP that everyone has access to, and produce more tactile Information that the public is usually aching for during what is understandably a stressful event. I know that agency reps fear liability more than anything, and that leads them to never want to commit any information on the record that could get invalidated...this is why containment numbers always lag behind for days. Nobody wants to say "Division Alpha is looking good!" only for it flare up and blow out the next day. So instead, they play it safe with numbers that mean nothing. How can you get sued for saying there are 3,034 personnel on the fire? Sure it's meaningless info for an evacuated resident, but there's nothing about it that could be invalidated by a sudden wind swap. All that said, take everything I say with a grain of salt. Anything can (and often does) happen on a wildfire. Everything that can burn, will burn. It's just a matter of time. But this fire is looking quite good for where's it at currently. IC has had the huevos to do some needed firing ops, and I commend them for that with alacrity. I love seeing a bias for action in our panicky litigious culture, and proactivity is cash money in the wildfire world. Now it's time for YOU to be proactive. CLEAR YOUR BRUSH. We say it all the time, and you never do it. But when fire comes to your neighborhood, you'll really regret not doing it, because you will lose everything. Don't rely on these dudes to risk their lives to save you if you can't save yourself. More prayer for the studs working the #LakeFire today in exceptionally difficult conditions. The more they wrap this fire, the deeper they get into hazardous territory. Lots of heat injuries yesterday. Just savages doing this work and they deserve all the praise we can muster. 34K acres, but you know that doesn't matter.

The 2035 Initiative at UCSB is seeking a Deputy Director to work closely with 2035 faculty and staff and contribute to a wide range of policy, research, and management activities (~$70,000-$86,133). UCSB is an AA/EOE, including disability/vets. recruit.ap.ucsb.edu/JPF02759. Join us!

@yuenyuenang Works for people who are writing papers, thought mine is 3/3/3. And a lot fewer when writing a book!

Don't get me wrong; this is good "strategic" advice for beating the tenure clock But it is also what made me sad to choose this profession My attitude was: I won't get tenure. I just want to write a good book.

The College of Creative Studies and @BrenUCSB at @ucsantabarbara jointly invite applications for a tenure-track faculty position as an Assistant Teaching Professor in Marine Data Science. recruit.ap.ucsb.edu/JPF02610 UCSB is an AA/EOE, including disability/vets

@AstroBio_Ben On Thursday, block any big chunks left on my calendar the following week and label them Work!

In academia, there is always work to do. So, I've developed some rules that help me maintain my peace in this busy career. 1/4 1. No meetings on Mondays. -Mondays for me are for catching up on work and e-mails. This helps me feel productive at the beginning of every week.

@djw172 @PolicyProcessor Agree... maybe it's the people who bought houses during COVID in MT and ID and just know they're west of the east coast but not the west coast? Or it's Billings but I don't have an Idaho equivalent explanation. I just know I am NOT from the Midwest.

Those Montana numbers are shocking. (Idaho and Wyoming too I guess) @PolicyProcessor what gives? Some kind of Billings affliction?

#UCSB Environmental Studies is hiring a Mellichamp Chair in Racially Just, Resilient and Sustainable City Futures to join a campus cluster. recruit.ap.ucsb.edu/JPF02558 UCSB is an EOE, including disability/vets.

Marian Walker, an environmental studies major at #UCSB, reflects on the hands-on research in which she’s become involved as an undergraduate, kickstarting her career. (5/5)

The @BrenUCSB is hiring an Assistant Teaching Professor (Tenure Track) in Environmental Communication. recruit.ap.ucsb.edu/JPF02609 UCSB is an EOE, including disability/vets. Come join us here!

@EAKoebele We wrote on this in other domains in a Nature Climate Change article - the dangers of disaster driven management - and in more detail on wildfire in Economic Inquiry if that helps. Look at lit on salience or availability bias.

Going to @APSAtweets in LA? Interested in the political economy of environment and climate? Consider applying to this "incubator" pre-conference to be hosted at UCLA (deadline 4/14): forms.gle/Z9AkWcawfApUG6… We aim to spark new research and collaborations!

@PolicyProcessor @ejfagan I agree... very normal Montana thing to do. I often fly with MT meat from my family! TSA gets a bit puzzled sometimes.

@ejfagan *proud

How would you like your beef? Homestyle!

Inequality in Agency Response: Evidence from Salient Wildfire Events | The Journal of Politics Hoping this paper with @mwibbenmeyer & Andrew Plantinga spurs us to think more about how agency processes contribute to inequity. journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/72…

@melissabaker712 @alessandro_nai The pot leaves in the background!

@melissabaker712 I like this one for my classes. youtube.com/watch?v=xIJORB…

Winds have been quite impressive over the area in the last 24 hrs, esp near the waters. The area NW of Avalon gusted to 86 mph, and Santa Barbara Island gusted to 83 mph.

Driving Legislators' Policy Preferences: Constituent Commutes and Gas Taxes Just officially out in @LSQjournal with Dan Butler, Laurel Harbridge-Yong, and Agustin Markarian. @STEP_APSA onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ls…

The @BrenUCSB School is hiring an Assistant Teaching Professor (TT) in Environmental Data Science (EDS). Come join an interdisciplinary faculty & teach Masters students in Santa Barbara! @EpgJobs @STEP_APSA UCSB is an EOE, including disability/vets. recruit.ap.ucsb.edu/JPF02359

@hahriehan @lizcmckenna @mich_oyakawa @UChicagoPress Congrats. Was looking at it today!

Feeling very honored and humbled to have our book win this award for “scholarship contributing to the struggle for a better world” #APSA2022 ⁦@lizcmckenna⁩ ⁦@mich_oyakawa⁩ ⁦@UChicagoPress⁩

I'm enjoying learning about Alaska politics while doing research on top-4 open primaries and ranked choice voting. If only I had written an AK trip into that grant!