Eric Simpson

Generational dip buying opportunity on $TSLA here

He runs a ~$7B fund, yet @leopoldasch is still in the trenches. What's your excuse?

Getting paid to think is peak everything. If you’re getting paid well to think, don’t take it for granted. That’s 1% of civilization type stuff. Your ancestors are proud and jealous that you’ve gotten this far.

Pretty evident that the first victim of AI usage in finance will be the outsourced companies that only exist to spread numbers from company filings into excel Every junior analyst I speak with says that Claude and OpenAI can do the same exact thing at a 10x faster pace now

Where power becomes intelligence. NVIDIA GB300s arriving at Childress for our Microsoft Horizon deployment. Big effort from the team. $IREN

One of Peter Thiel's most important ideas: Don't start a new business unless it's at least 10x better on some important dimension than what already exists. AI will allow many businesses to be 10x+ cheaper, and a bit higher quality, than *a lot* of existing businesses. This is a core filter I'm using as I'm reviewing every holding of mine one by one.

The Investing Group – April 20, 2026 Meeting Summary theinvestinggroup.substack.com/p/the-investin… $BE $ORCL $CRWV $AAPL $AXON $ISRG

Every time when killer trying to assassinate Trump

Worrying that your startup will be eaten by the model companies is like worrying that your life will be constrained after you become a movie star. You're far more likely simply to fail.

You know how investors diversify? Do that but with your whole existence. Most people have one big bet: their job, their relationship, their city, their identity. When that bet wobbles, they wobble. High-agency people have a portfolio of micro-bets running simultaneously: little experiments, side projects, weak ties, learning loops, optionality generators. Start three micro-bets this month. each one should: • take <5 hours to initiate • cost <€100 • have asymmetric upside (small risk, potentially large reward) • teach you something even if it “fails” Examples: cold email someone interesting, publish something online, try a new skill on youtube, join a weird community, make something and give it away, run a tiny experiment in your day job. The goal isn’t success, it’s increasing your surface area for luck.

@RUGBY_STR_COACH Shoes allowing for more volume, recent research and adoption of double threshold training, and bicarb are big factors too

As a rationalist I continue to be disgusted at how psychological human performance is. Nobody in history ran a sub 2hr marathon, then two guys did it at once, because the other guy pushed them so hard.

HOT TAKE: The only “free alpha” left in public markets is IPO allocations Why? Misaligned incentives everywhere -Allocations go to the biggest clients -Deals are engineered for day 1 pops (30–40%) off sandbagged numbers -Long onlys & HFs get instant benchmark outperformance -Employees are locked up while others exit -Retail has ZERO access early and shows up late as liquidity … feature not bug -VCs don’t trade …and it shows post-IPO Secondaries + lockups stay opaque by design… SLOPPY action IPOs have turned from a capital raise process to a risk/distribution process And at scale (SpaceX, Ant, OpenAI?) this breaks…bookmark this: post-mega IPO cycle, restructuring the IPO process becomes the market debate of 2027 *maybe a good topic on the process in my education series

@Newman123Sam @FearedBuck It's not unheard of for people to make the jump to the NFL with no football background if they have at least borderline Olympic caliber athleticism. QB is very skill dependent but most positions are more speed or strength based.

@FearedBuck This just proves that the NFL isn't a real sport He has never played before but he has become a professional overnight🤣🤣🤣🤣 There's no other sport in the world where this would happen🤣🤣🤣 Absolute joke.

The Philadelphia Eagles drafted a 21 year old Nigerian who has never played football but stands 6’5”, 306 lbs with 6% body fat, a 39” vertical, a 10’10” broad jump that is 14 inches longer than any other defensive tackle at the HBCU combine, and a 4.63 40 yard dash

Seeing two types of founders emerge in this moment: The tourists and the terminators. The terminators are salivating at the opportunity ahead. Hungrier than ever. More ambitious than ever. They want it more than ever. The tourists. They want to sell. They are scared. They do not want to commit 10 years to such uncertainty. Pack is separating.

The single most reliable trade in software investing is buying the busted, profitable, mid-cycle company that everyone has decided is about to be killed by AI, two years before the market figures out that AI did not, in fact, kill it, and that the company's free cash flow has gone up the entire time the stock was going down. There is, right now, a list of roughly 80 software companies that the market has, in the last 18 months, sold to the floor on the thesis that ChatGPT or Copilot or some unnamed startup with $40 million of seed funding is going to make the entire product category obsolete by 2027. The thesis is wrong. The thesis has always been wrong. The thesis was wrong in 1999 about brick and mortar, wrong in 2007 about newspapers, wrong in 2015 about cable, and it is wrong in 2026 about every category of vertical SaaS, niche enterprise software, and embedded workflow tooling that the AI panic has decided is about to die. These businesses are not dying. These businesses are growing free cash flow. The customers are not switching. The contracts are not being canceled. The renewal rates are 94%. The CEOs are buying back stock at 6x earnings while their former growth-investor shareholders are selling at any price to anyone who will take the position off their hands, because the narrative has flipped, and once the narrative flips, the holders of the stock change, and the new holders are people like you, paying single-digit multiples for businesses that, in any other decade, would have traded at 25x earnings without anyone blinking. You are not buying software. You are buying a narrative arbitrage. The narrative will correct in 24 to 36 months. The cash flow will correct it for you while you wait. This trade has run, in some form, every 7 years since the early 1980s, and it has paid every single time, and it is paying right now, and almost nobody you know is taking it, because taking it requires owning something that everyone at the dinner party has decided is dead, which is the oldest, hardest, and most profitable thing an investor in public equities can ever bring himself to do.

Feels like we’re still early in the compute cycle. Supply isn’t easy, real-world constraints are everywhere. And every step forward in AI just seems to create more demand for compute.

Hot take: The best age to found your own startup is 30 and over. VCs have a bias for gravitating towards young founders. I think there’s something very alluring about finding strokes of genius much earlier. But having prior careers gives you domain expertise, understanding of good products, hiring judgment, and leadership experience that you didn’t have coming out of college. Here are just a few examples: Jeff Bezos (Amazon, 30) Jensen Huang (Nvidia, 30) Sam Altman (OpenAI, 30) Travis Kalanick (Uber, 33) Jack Ma (Alibaba, 35) Marc Benioff (Salesforce, 35) Dario Amodei (Anthropic, 37) Obviously there are exceptions, especially if you are building a consumer product. It’s cool to be a college dropout and start a generational company. But Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg were successful in spite of dropping out, not because of it.

@RealHerbHoover Gotta figure out how to make these people worth something but in my experience with a few in my life, their biggest problem is they truly won't listen to anyone.

@orrdavid @RealHerbHoover Yeah in some other environments/scenarios people like this could do some really amazing and productive things especially with how AI is now. But they tend to fall through the cracks because they can't out of the way of themselves. How life goes for many "twice exceptional" types.

Caltech then unemployed for 8 years is the most obvious schizo/bpd/mkultra ted kazcynski style bio out there

@ZoomerTechlead It’s the Walter White arc pre-Heisenberg

Could see this being a legit crashout tbh. Bro was underemployed while his peers were landing cushy six figure tech jobs left and right for solving leetcode mediums. So he pivots to CS via grad school only to graduate into the worst job market the field has seen in decades

This is from Militia's 2022 Q1 letter. This is why you shouldn't allocate too much of your net worth to any one investment, including highly levered (300%+ gross) long/short funds.