Pulse24

NVIDIA EARNINGS PREVIEW: THE MOST IMPORTANT AI QUARTER YET? Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, and this may become one of the biggest market-defining events of the year for the entire AI trade. Consensus expectations are extremely high once again: • Revenue expectations are approaching ~$79B • Markets continue expecting extraordinary Blackwell demand • Gross margins are expected near ~75% • Investors still assume hyperscaler AI spending remains aggressive into 2027 But this quarter feels different. For almost two years, Nvidia has consistently delivered: - explosive growth - massive guidance upgrades - AI infrastructure dominance - near-perfect execution Now the market is beginning to ask a harder question: How long can this pace realistically continue without saturation discussions appearing? Key areas markets will focus on: 1. CHINA DEMAND Trump’s China summit failed to deliver the kind of breakthrough markets quietly hoped for around AI trade cooperation. Nvidia’s H200 opportunity in China remains one of the biggest forward-looking variables. Management previously excluded China data center revenue from guidance, meaning any positive surprise here could materially affect future projections. 2. BLACKWELL EXECUTION The AI rally still heavily depends on Blackwell scaling smoothly across hyperscalers, enterprises and sovereign AI infrastructure. Investors will closely watch supply constraints, deployment pace and margin sustainability. Nvidia previously stated it sees sequential growth continuing through 2026 with visibility extending into 2027. 3. AI CAPEX DURABILITY This is quietly becoming the most important issue. The market no longer just expects Nvidia to grow. It expects hyperscalers to continue spending at extraordinary levels quarter after quarter without meaningful slowdown. Any signs of: - AI infrastructure normalization - softer enterprise demand - delayed deployments - margin pressure - slowing incremental growth could quickly shift sentiment around the entire AI narrative. 4. MACRO CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING Unlike previous quarters, Nvidia now reports earnings against: - rising global bond yields - oil above $100 - sticky inflation concerns - stronger dollar pressure - geopolitical uncertainty - stretched equity positioning That backdrop makes this earnings call far more important psychologically for markets. The real risk for Nvidia probably isn’t whether this quarter beats expectations. It’s whether management can still convincingly argue that the current pace of AI spending and monetization can continue for another 4–6 quarters without meaningful slowdown. Because at a ~$5T+ valuation, Nvidia no longer trades like a semiconductor company. It trades like the central pillar holding together the modern AI-driven market narrative itself.

NVIDIA EARNINGS PREVIEW: THE MOST IMPORTANT AI QUARTER YET? Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, and this may become one of the biggest market-defining events of the year for the entire AI trade. Consensus expectations are extremely high once again: • Revenue expectations are approaching ~$79B • Markets continue expecting extraordinary Blackwell demand • Gross margins are expected near ~75% • Investors still assume hyperscaler AI spending remains aggressive into 2027 But this quarter feels different. For almost two years, Nvidia has consistently delivered: - explosive growth - massive guidance upgrades - AI infrastructure dominance - near-perfect execution Now the market is beginning to ask a harder question: How long can this pace realistically continue without saturation discussions appearing? Key areas markets will focus on: 1. CHINA DEMAND Trump’s China summit failed to deliver the kind of breakthrough markets quietly hoped for around AI trade cooperation. Nvidia’s H200 opportunity in China remains one of the biggest forward-looking variables. Management previously excluded China data center revenue from guidance, meaning any positive surprise here could materially affect future projections. 2. BLACKWELL EXECUTION The AI rally still heavily depends on Blackwell scaling smoothly across hyperscalers, enterprises and sovereign AI infrastructure. Investors will closely watch supply constraints, deployment pace and margin sustainability. Nvidia previously stated it sees sequential growth continuing through 2026 with visibility extending into 2027. 3. AI CAPEX DURABILITY This is quietly becoming the most important issue. The market no longer just expects Nvidia to grow. It expects hyperscalers to continue spending at extraordinary levels quarter after quarter without meaningful slowdown. Any signs of: - AI infrastructure normalization - softer enterprise demand - delayed deployments - margin pressure - slowing incremental growth could quickly shift sentiment around the entire AI narrative. 4. MACRO CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING Unlike previous quarters, Nvidia now reports earnings against: - rising global bond yields - oil above $100 - sticky inflation concerns - stronger dollar pressure - geopolitical uncertainty - stretched equity positioning That backdrop makes this earnings call far more important psychologically for markets. The real risk for Nvidia probably isn’t whether this quarter beats expectations. It’s whether management can still convincingly argue that the current pace of AI spending and monetization can continue for another 4–6 quarters without meaningful slowdown. Because at a ~$5T+ valuation, Nvidia no longer trades like a semiconductor company. It trades like the central pillar holding together the modern AI-driven market narrative itself.

NVIDIA EARNINGS PREVIEW: THE MOST IMPORTANT AI QUARTER YET? Nvidia reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, and this may become one of the biggest market-defining events of the year for the entire AI trade. Consensus expectations are extremely high once again: • Revenue expectations are approaching ~$79B • Markets continue expecting extraordinary Blackwell demand • Gross margins are expected near ~75% • Investors still assume hyperscaler AI spending remains aggressive into 2027 But this quarter feels different. For almost two years, Nvidia has consistently delivered: - explosive growth - massive guidance upgrades - AI infrastructure dominance - near-perfect execution Now the market is beginning to ask a harder question: How long can this pace realistically continue without saturation discussions appearing? Key areas markets will focus on: 1. CHINA DEMAND Trump’s China summit failed to deliver the kind of breakthrough markets quietly hoped for around AI trade cooperation. Nvidia’s H200 opportunity in China remains one of the biggest forward-looking variables. Management previously excluded China data center revenue from guidance, meaning any positive surprise here could materially affect future projections. 2. BLACKWELL EXECUTION The AI rally still heavily depends on Blackwell scaling smoothly across hyperscalers, enterprises and sovereign AI infrastructure. Investors will closely watch supply constraints, deployment pace and margin sustainability. Nvidia previously stated it sees sequential growth continuing through 2026 with visibility extending into 2027. 3. AI CAPEX DURABILITY This is quietly becoming the most important issue. The market no longer just expects Nvidia to grow. It expects hyperscalers to continue spending at extraordinary levels quarter after quarter without meaningful slowdown. Any signs of: - AI infrastructure normalization - softer enterprise demand - delayed deployments - margin pressure - slowing incremental growth could quickly shift sentiment around the entire AI narrative. 4. MACRO CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING Unlike previous quarters, Nvidia now reports earnings against: - rising global bond yields - oil above $100 - sticky inflation concerns - stronger dollar pressure - geopolitical uncertainty - stretched equity positioning That backdrop makes this earnings call far more important psychologically for markets. The real risk for Nvidia probably isn’t whether this quarter beats expectations. It’s whether management can still convincingly argue that the current pace of AI spending and monetization can continue for another 4–6 quarters without meaningful slowdown. Because at a ~$5T+ valuation, Nvidia no longer trades like a semiconductor company. It trades like the central pillar holding together the modern AI-driven market narrative itself.