Punting Form retweetledi

I 🙏 that Spring weather helps the Randwick track to race more evenly. It has been an off-fence paradise over the past six months, seemingly regardless of rail position.
Some stats on genuine market chances up to $10 SP since March 2024:
At the 400m mark
*⃣ Lanes 1-3: 200 runners for a 13.5% SR and -28% POT
*⃣ Lanes 4-8: 274 runners for a 21.5% SR and +11% POT
At the 200m mark
*⃣ Lanes 1-4: 129 runners for a 11.5% SR and -42% POT
*⃣ Lanes 5-11: 292 runners for a 21.9% SR and +17% POT
Of this group, 105 on-pace runners at the 800m mark (lead or within 1L) have won less often at 16.2% SR than those well off pace (3 to 5 lengths back) at 22.1% SR. That's unheard of.
The picture is no different if you include longer-priced horses. Presenting data on genuine market chances eliminates any debate that there might be some coincidence in the results due to where the better chances have raced.
For Punters, we can adjust, choose not to bet, etc. For owners, the opportunities to win are rare and having your chances notably impacted by consistently biased racing surfaces is a tough pill to swallow.
* Lanes data courtesy of @PuntingForm

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