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4/ Until clearer tariff or US-Iran headlines emerge, crypto likely stays in a grinding range. Front-end vol spiked on the move lower but is already being faded, and call overwriters may soon return to pin spot near current levels.

QCP Market Colour, 18 May 2026 From Long Gamma to Macro Drama BTC breaks range as long-gamma support fades and macro pressures build 1/ BTC broke below $78k after spending most of the month pinned around $80k. Dealer long gamma, especially in IBIT options, had helped suppress volatility, but Friday’s expiry saw over $4B of IBIT options roll off, weakening that support.

4/ Without a fresh catalyst, spot likely stays range-bound below $84K, with vols compressed. Read more: qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-m…

3/ Supercore remains sticky, keeping the hurdle for Fed cuts higher. BTC now looks to PPI, Trump-Xi talks and CLARITY for direction.

1/ QCP Market Colour, 13 May 2026 BTC Holds the Line as Macro Catalysts Stack Up BTC remains heavy but orderly, consolidating around $82K and holding above $80K despite ETF outflows and a slightly hotter CPI print. Downside momentum appears to be fading, but $84K remains the key topside level to clear.

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4/ With crypto vol near YTD lows and the VIX around 18, we continue to expect range-bound trading near term, with 84k acting as key resistance. Read more: qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-m…

3/ Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee’s review of the CLARITY Act keeps regulatory momentum in focus.

1/ QCP Market Colour, 11 May 2026 Markets enter a pivotal week as Trump and Xi prepare to meet in Beijing, while CPI, PPI and retail sales data test whether inflation is stabilising or reaccelerating.

4/ For $BTC, a clean break above $82k-$83k remains the key level to watch. Until then, rallies may still be faded if oil, USDJPY or global yields move sharply higher. Read more: qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-m…

3/ The macro backdrop remains fragile. Rates markets are pricing stickier inflation, sovereign yields sit near multi-year highs and Japan's yen weakness and rising JGB yields are adding further pressure on global liquidity.

2/ Options markets tell a more cautious story. 1M ATM IV sits around 41%, front-month vols have softened and 30D RR remains put-rich at -5.5 vol. Investors are participating in upside, but still paying for protection.

QCP Market Colour - 6 May 26 1/ Trump's pause on "Project Freedom" is read as a de-escalation signal, sending oil lower, equities higher and the dollar softer. $BTC has reclaimed $80k alongside the S&P 500's best month since 2020, trading once again as a high-beta expression of dollar weakness and risk appetite.

5/ A busy week lies ahead with JOLTS, ADP, NFP, and earnings from Strategy, Coinbase, and Block. Choppiness looks likely until a more decisive upside break emerges. Read more: qcpgroup.com/insights/qcp-m…

4/ Implied vols near year lows and the VIX around 17 suggest markets are pricing in de-escalation on US-Iran tensions. That calculus could change quickly as "Project Freedom" kicks off today and Iran's response bears watching.

Market Colour | 04 May 26 1/ $BTC opens May on firm footing, breaking above $80k for the first time since January 31 and tracking equities higher. The rally holds even as Strategy pauses purchases, suggesting broader market support beyond a single buyer narrative.