Quality Capital

263 posts

Quality Capital

Quality Capital

@QualityCap0

Katılım Ekim 2022
664 Takip Edilen139 Takipçiler
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@massivemoats @MichaelGielkens Not sure it’s arbitrary. It ends up being about 15x fwd ebitda, cheaper than top shelf peers. Now it looks like you’re paying about 11-12x ebitda for Action, US option for free and $III.l buying back stock instead of increasing stake in Action, which is good value
English
0
0
0
6
Massive Moats
Massive Moats@massivemoats·
3i Group's $III.L NAV per share increased by 19% Y/Y to 3,030p, up from 2,542p on March 31, 2025. This 19% Y/Y surge was primarily driven by the additional purchase of a 7.5% stake in Action and the company's expanding EBITDA. Currently, $III.L trades at a 28% discount to NAV.
Massive Moats tweet media
English
2
1
10
886
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@BourbonCap Not really, $AXP always was buffet’s pick and $V and $MA was Todd’s
English
0
0
6
2.3K
Bourbon Capital
Bourbon Capital@BourbonCap·
Berkshire Hathaway selling 100% of $AMZN was totally expected, but selling 100% of $V and $MA was unexpected
English
60
20
670
79.4K
Divergent Capital
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651·
Names that I think are interesting in this space right now: $CNQ $SU $FRU $ATH $VNOM $OBE
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651

Look, I'm no oil expert. I try to go where the opportunity is and I think this whole situation presents some opportunities. I don't think you really need oil to go higher here. If it remains elevated for longer than the market is anticipating, let's say through to year end, you can make money. There are lots of producers and royalty companies that are still being valued on their trialing quarter free cash flow yields, realised prices, production rates, etc, none of which take into account the current elevated spot price. As this isn't my field, please let me know if there's anything obvious that I'm missing. I get that it's a very loose and general directional view.

English
1
0
8
7.3K
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@AndrewM61370616 IMO it’s way too soon for the commercial carriers, growth is slowing because of prices and we haven’t seen the impact on margin yet, still at ATH. Brokers maybe, most likely dead money for a while. $PGR yes, a lot of negativity looks baked in and auto cycle more advance
English
0
0
1
291
Andrew Marshall
Andrew Marshall@AndrewM61370616·
Insurance is just starting to look too cheap - names like $KNSL $PGR $AIG $NMIH $ACGL $AJG just seem to be cheap here to the point that I feel I may be missing something. I guess the mkt is pricing in a lot of these cos seeing more competitive pricing/not being able to raise prices? Does anyone have a reason why this industry has lagged so much?
English
15
4
59
9.9K
Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
Now that Warren and Charlie are no longer running the company... what do you think Berkshire Hathaway and the new management team should do with their $400+ billion of cash? $BRK $BRK.A $BRK.B I joked last year that $BRK should buy $INTC but clearly that ship has sailed. I also thought $BA could make some sense but Warren never liked the airline business so that's probably unlikely. Whatever they do needs to move the needle on a $1 trillion company. I could see them buying the other 73% of $OXY (Occidental) that they don't already own... or the other 91% of $CB (Chubb) they don't already own.. or the other 85% of $MCO (Moody's) they don't already own... or the other 74% of $AXP (American Express) they don't already own (this deal would be massive)... or maybe they go after a utility like $VST or a pharma company like $REGN which trades at 14x NTM EPS not including their $20B cash pile. Any thoughts?
English
71
7
128
226.2K
James East
James East@ACIPartnerhship·
American International Group $AIG Q1* Quick Take: • General Insurance CR 87%, about as good as it gets, • North America Commercial CR 86%, • $519m in share buybacks in Q1, ≈7m shares, • Increased dividend for Q2, +11% to $0.50, • Sold ≈4% of Corebridge $CRBG, down to 5.6% equity, • Core Operating ROE ≈12% for Q1 * Priority remains - reduce volatility via lower program limits and growing new mix. Appears turnaround has turned. All while selling below BV.
English
1
0
3
2.9K
Divergent Capital
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651·
What are your best oil related ideas right now? Not my field but interested in understanding how people who specialise in that area see the situation right now.
English
15
0
9
5.1K
Celeritas Research
Celeritas Research@CeleritasRe·
I'm seriously scratching my head on this $EFX move. This is an obviously correct take.
Celeritas Research tweet media
English
5
0
15
6.2K
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@Divergent7651 Progressive would say having the data is one thing, knowing what to do with it is another. They are way ahead in both IMO. All of this feel like $PGR will continue to gain share for much longer that the market thinks, specially if Geico continue to struggle.
English
0
0
1
188
Divergent Capital
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651·
Starting to change my mind on this. The analogy that comes to mind is the more efficient loom that came in when Buffett was running Berkshire. Broadly applicable efficiency gains from new tech for all competitors in a commodity industry just resulted in lower returns on capital for everyone because the cost of producing the product was reduced but no one could differentiate or insulate their products from pricing competition. One differentiator for $PGR is its telematics data. Thoughts?
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651

You can buy one of the best insurers in the world $PGR at ~10x GAAP net income right now. My best pick for under appreciated AI beneficiary. AI enhances data analysis Data analysis benefits underwriting accuracy Accurate pricing means lower policy prices for good insureds Good insureds moving to PGR means adverse selection for competitors Lower claims handling costs from automation means better margins Less fraud from AI enhanced fraud detection means lower operating costs Tell me what I’m missing or why I’m wrong

English
6
0
26
10.7K
Cedar Street Research
Cedar Street Research@CedarStResearch·
I’m told Netflix is creating a movie on $AIG - likely the good, the bad and the ugly. Sounds cool.
English
2
0
10
1.2K
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@Divergent7651 Not sure that there is a better insurer than $PGR accross any lines and any regions
English
0
0
1
53
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@BrownMarubozu Very hard not to think that convex is going to be close to a 95 combined in a few years and trading closer to a bermuda multiple like 7-8x. Make onex quite hard for me, eventhough the discount to nav is quite large
English
0
0
1
90
Brown
Brown@BrownMarubozu·
$GFR was my top choice from the day but there were lots of interesting ideas from very intelligent participants. It’s hard for me to like $ONEX.TO when $FFH.TO is available given the overlap in PE and P&C insurance.
James East@ACIPartnerhship

[ 2026 YYX Toronto Value Symposium Pitches ] In alphabetical order and winner below: • Gentex Corp $GNTX • Gigacloud Technology Inc $GCT • Greenfire Resources $GFR • Meritz Financial Group $138040 - Korea • Onex Corporation $ONEX.TO • Orvana Minerals $ORV.TO • Primoris Services Corp $PRI • Rand Worldwide Inc $RWWI • Richards Group Inc $RIC.TO • Stonetrust Commercial Insurance Company - Private • Theon International $THEON.NA - Netherlands The winning pitch as voted on by attendees was $ONEX.TO by Punch & Associates from Minneapolis and was invited to present again at the Fairfax shareholder's dinner. Side note: Including the other pitches during breaks and lunch too, the event is going to generate extra work for a lot of managers! Hope to see and reconnect with many of you next year.

English
3
1
29
7.3K
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@Divergent7651 Agree on the thesis, I see it at 13x though, and that would be on a normalized margin for private auto
English
0
0
0
536
Divergent Capital
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651·
You can buy one of the best insurers in the world $PGR at ~10x GAAP net income right now. My best pick for under appreciated AI beneficiary. AI enhances data analysis Data analysis benefits underwriting accuracy Accurate pricing means lower policy prices for good insureds Good insureds moving to PGR means adverse selection for competitors Lower claims handling costs from automation means better margins Less fraud from AI enhanced fraud detection means lower operating costs Tell me what I’m missing or why I’m wrong
English
28
11
174
48.9K
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@long_equity Valuation looks fine, but Chubb is earning at least 5 pts of margin versus what they earn in a normal environment.. and the cycle is turning. IMO you're paying a much higher valuation than what it looks like
English
0
0
1
227
Long Equity
Long Equity@long_equity·
I'm hesitant to invest in an insurance company, but the more I look into its valuation, the more compelling Chubb Limited $CB looks.
Long Equity tweet media
English
5
0
41
7.3K
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
$CRBG $EQT merger. Anyone?
English
0
0
1
122
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@TheGarpInvestor Actually you could argue that using stocks to buy Accession was a great use of capital by management. Now they are buying it back more aggressively
English
1
0
2
122
Ethan Tucker
Ethan Tucker@TheGarpInvestor·
what are thoughts on $BRO here? Like a lot of what I see. Dislike the share count dilution over time and the large recent acquisition using stock. Just starting my research here, so no real opinion yet.
English
5
0
5
2.2K
Divergent Capital
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651·
What are your best ideas right now?
English
29
1
33
14.8K
Quality Capital
Quality Capital@QualityCap0·
@ohcapideas Chubb buying AIG and BRK buying either one make sense IMO. Zaffino will get major payout if AIG is sold, like 150M… and Evan buying back his father’s company…sometime its that simple.
English
0
0
1
134
Ohio Capital Ideas
Ohio Capital Ideas@ohcapideas·
There's periodic speculation that $BRK could buy $CB, partly because they own 8% already. If Chubb's valuation ever got a lot cheaper, I think they'd love to buy it. But, I never hear much speculation about buying $AIG, despite their business now being pretty complimentary and Zaffino seeming to really improve the underwriting. They've moved some into private assets, which Berkshire is probably allergic to - but Chubb has done the same. I wonder if the bad blood from many years ago from Berkshire poaching $AIG execs is still pretty strong and is a big hindrance. No doubt several people will explain to me why I'm stupid, but the size, business, and valuation right now all fit Berkshire pretty well.
English
7
1
10
4.4K

Keşfet

@massivemoats @MichaelGielkens @BourbonCap @Divergent7651 @AndrewM61370616 @JonahLupton @ACIPartnerhship @BarrySchwartzBW