scarmat

@weary_centurion I mean we'll see what happens we don't know what price is paid for venmo or if it's sold at all. All I know is it's still cheap and negative growth is priced in so anything else that's not that should be good

$PYPL This is ultimately why I sold PayPal It wasn’t the valuation it’s because I lost faith in the BOD after they axed Alex Chriss Diego Scotti and Michelle Gill were probably the highest achieving execs during Alex’s leadership Diego did amazing things with Venmo and Michelle managed to inflect SMBs back to growth I do not think it’s coincidental that they have departed As time goes on it seems more and more likely PayPal is going to be broken up and sold for parts It will probably work out ok for shareholders but it’s a painful reminder of what PayPal could have been if it was managed correctly and not neglected to the point of deterioration under Schulman I don’t think it would have mattered who the CEO was who took over in 2023, it was destined to fail. Nobody knew the full extent of the damage under the hood I also suspect there is an entrenched corporate culture there which is obstructive towards innovation and meaningful change A real shame

@SergeyCYW someone bought the dip on software for sure

Portfolio Update Apr : +1.6% YTD: -22.2% Cumulative: +73.6% Holdings: 1. $NET 14.2% 2. $CRWD 12.1% 3. $DDOG 11.8% 4. $MELI 11.3% 5. $SHOP 10.4% 6. $SNOW 7.7% 7. $AXON 6.3% 8. $APP 6.1% 9. $MDB 5.0% 10. $NOW 4.7% 11. $IOT 4.3% 12. $ZS 3.4% 13. $RBRK 2.8% Historical performance (TWR): 2020: +110.2 %(since 15.04.2020) 2021: +23.7% 2022: -59.6% 2023: +57.3% 2024: +24.9% 2025: +8.2% 👉 Subscribe to my newsletter for a monthly portfolio review. Past recaps: x.com/SergeyCYW/stat…

@KrisPatel99 I thought the same to be honest but as theyve gotten better they've become stickier yes you can technically transfer data but I don't think most people would

Ultimately I think Alex Karp will be proven right about his comments on the commoditization of AI Models. Not sure what the ultimate value of OpenAI or Anthropic will be if they are forever locked in a battle to fight each other and other research labs to the death. The cost of switching the brain is likely easier than switching the platform. Gonna borrow this diagram from @arny_trezzi

@ariaradnia amd tho

$NVDA not moving after big tech saw BLOWOUT earnings across the board is a bit puzzling 🤔

@ariaradnia gotta say this every earnings reverse cramer effect

NEW ALL TIME HIGHS AFTER HOURS $AMZN

@cantonmeow allegedly Kevin warsh doesn't think the fed should step in

Banks are too big to fail since 2008. They are backed by the US government. The only way for a true economic collapse, or "The Great Reset", to happen is that the US government fails. There will be bigger problems than the stock market when that happens.

@ariaradnia is it just cause it's run up last couple weeks?

I unfortunately think $AMZN gonna dump 10% after hours

@Dr_Crossroads yea idk could just be doing it to prove to the market how much venmo is worth because I honestly think venmo is worth the entirety of PayPals ev at the moment and I doubt they will receive that amount

$PYPL One of the things that former CEO Alex Chriss did was integrate the siloed aspects of PayPal's business into a whole unit. This was necessary. PayPal had failed to digest and accelerate past acquisitions, to the extent that Pay With Venmo competed directly with branded paypal (at a lower take rate). The only way this move makes sense is selling Venmo, which is easier to do as an independent business unit, which is what I am expecting this indicates.

@ariaradnia should've just done 100 to 1

25-1 might be the ugliest stock split you could do $BKNG

@HanSoloTheForce @Sam_Badawi for him it is. for a normal person no he rather buy at a cheaper valuation at a higher price a normal person should essentially always want the lowest price sometimes that comes with a higher valuation example of this is 2022.

@QualityGrowthFV @Sam_Badawi Is that a better time to buy?

PAUL TUDOR JONES ON BUYING THE S&P 500 RIGHT NOW: "If you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward returns are negative when you buy with the S&P P/E of 22. That's what history shows." Jones called the 1987 crash before it happened. He's not predicting a crash. He says the setup is more leveraged than anything he's seen including 2008. "The stock market's really high, and it's going to be really hard to make money from here."

@unusual_whales but consumes 30% more calories

@ChrisCamillo @GerberKawasaki he does this with every popular company he's addicted to being contrarian even if it means he's wrong

@GerberKawasaki Bold statement for an account of your size and I doubt you want to mislead investors? Got data showing Robinhood only profits when users lose? Because like every broker, they make money on account growth and activity. $HOOD

They only make money when you gamble and lose on.... stock options, crypto and betting. This is a gambling app, nothing more. They make money when you lose. $hood

@ariaradnia prime easily insanely cheap for the value. I mean same day shipping no delivery fee Amazon prime video. No one uses it but Amazon photos as well

Which subscription would you NEVER cancel?

@heresyfinancial I mean it's not only go up but it's a trend higher with increased volatility for sure

Most hated bull market in history. In the last ten years the market has seen four 20%+ bear markets and eight other 10%+ corrections This is historically above average and puts us already on par with the 70’s and 30’s for highest frequency of bear markets The idea that the market has done nothing but go up in the last decade is just demonstrably false

@ariaradnia nvidia did 30 billion in revenue 2-3 years ago. I'm not saying it's the same but I'm saying this argument is not intelligent and you know it. I'm assuming this is engagement farming

It does $30B of revenue btw

@KrisPatel99 Openai should be monetized but Elon just received a small portion cause he got snaked and he co founded that's it. Not complex

@KrisPatel99 neither team they're both virtue signaling the truth is Elon wanted to monetize openai just like sam. Sam said no and then monetized with Microsoft behind his back. Essentially Elon wanted control tried to take it. Sam wanted control and well he took it

Whose side are y’all on? Team Elon? Or Team Altman?

@investingbyGenZ I think people really wanted it to go up instantly after they bought but that's not how turnarounds work I expected it to take 2 years from when I bought last year in August with this CEO change it might take an extra year or two we'll see how effective he is

@QualityGrowthFV I agree, buybacks at this valuation are nice!

$PYPL: did the thesis quietly change, or did the multiple just catch up? When I bought $PYPL, my thesis was pretty simple: - Revenue would grow >5% per year with some optionality to re‑accelerate. - FCF would grow faster than revenue as efficiency gains kicked in. - The market would eventually reward that steady execution (plus new products like Ads, Tap‑to‑Pay, etc.) with a higher multiple. That’s not what happened. Revenue has drifted closer to 0–5%, FCF has been choppier than I expected, and the anticipated efficiency gains never really showed up in a clean, compounding way. The result is a stock now sitting around 8x P/FCF on roughly $5.5–6B of FCF and ~$33B of revenue, which, if I’m honest, doesn’t look obviously unfair for a business growing low‑single‑digits with limited operating leverage. So I’m starting to think this might just be the new reality for $PYPL unless something changes: a stable but uninspiring franchise that the market values like an ex‑growth financial rather than a compounding fintech. If management can’t convincingly signal either (a) a path back to mid‑high single‑digit revenue growth or (b) a credible plan to structurally lift FCF through efficiency and mix (e.g. Ads ID, Braintree mix, cost work), I’m not sure it deserves much more than ~8–10x FCF. That’s where I’m at – curious how you see it: is $PYPL now reasonably priced for what it is, or do you still think there’s a credible route to re‑rating from here?