Sam

If I could go back to the beginning of my young trading career.. I’d simple say… “believe in yourself” - I had to move on from $NOK months ago thanks to the Michael Burry / PLTR timeframe.. but it taught me to believe in my research and trust in fundamentals. $4.90🚀

@aleabitoreddit Lovely. It’s nice to see a small account with our combined research grow.. noticed the hilarious sell off of $CLS post earnings… it didn’t make sense not to enter a position at $365…

I've monitored the situation for you. TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM). From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings: Upstream semi supply chains go brrr. $META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised. -> Higher component prices (price hikes) -> Aggressive AI infra spending -> Custom Model Training $MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources. Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year. So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them. Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)

Just a dab of small cap manipulation anyone? Jeez. Russell got the early hammer… they know we like leverage.

Just a friendly reminder.. indicators can help guide you, but the macro always remains in the drivers seat.. collect profits on your journey.. this is a reminder to myself as well..

This is overcooked.. MM’s sweeping today.. not surprised.

Lmao…$POET - so much hate yesterday…

@aleabitoreddit Contrarian today: $MRVL will regret.

$MRVL cancelled $POET purchase orders after the CFO went out and violated NDA when getting angry. Ouch to Poet, down -46%, this is why I don’t like companies with single customer concentration risk. On the bright side for $POET holders they do have $420m cash buffering downside risk and a few other customers (though Marvell was basically the entire Poet bull case story) It does look like Marvell delayed their own timelines as well by doing this. That being said, the packaging side is easier to design out for Marvell and they still need to source lasers.

@MooreRoger_10 That’s where I’m at.. contrarian today. I think $MRVL will regret this move.

$POET the friends i advised sold 20% of their POET stake at 12-13$. I sold 0. This is just the beginning. The marvel connection were the obvious dot, the real connections have yet to be revealed to the mainstream public Wait and see, POET is the millionaire maker. I will retire young from this

Everyone’s mad at $POET… while agree it was a mistake to breach contract.. I still think $MRVL will regret this.

@johhnyWalkerAZ While I agree with you partially, I can understand why a small cap like this(that sees heavy manipulation) would want to re-assure their investors… breaking an NDA was a mistake, but the technology will rally and more contracts will be had.

Example of a company ready to break out and hit it out of the park but they can’t keep their mouths shut. $POET , not sure how they come back from this

@aleabitoreddit Lovely. Aggressively ramping 👍🏼

@Quantrarian52 I’m a fan of $ASX? And converted their reports over accelerating CPO to H2 2026.

It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some: Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start). Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle: -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y) -> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable) -> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now) -> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years. Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything. But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different. For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML. There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things. But you're extremely early to new architecture generations. What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free. Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.

@HedgebergCom Haha.. I sold some @ $11.5… it found support quickly, so I immediately added more contracts.. we ended the day @ $16 BTW

$POET The breakout is confirmed. Obviously the take profit wasn’t the right decision this time. Bought 50% back at $14.52. It’s starting wave 3 now.

@aleabitoreddit You’re awesome. We need more people like you in this world! People who want the betterment of society.. love it 🙌🏼

Appreciate the X revenue sharing program! I actually end up passing it along to local charities I like, but don't normally share. I'm especially a big fan of local pet shelters, since my dog passed away last year and I'm still not completely over it. And addressing homelessness too, since I did make a lot of homeless friends back at UC Berkeley. At a certain point, you don't need more money. But it does help maximize the positive impact you can have, which is why I'm still on X (and not retiring, which I can do). It just feels fulfilling to live an honest life, be true to yourself, and see how much of a positive change you can make in this world before you go? My goal on X has always been how to help the retail investor the most... compared to traditional models of selling every single piece of alpha to institutions first. Actions speak louder than words, hence why subscriptions are $1 and I publish all my ideas/thought process for free to everyone here (even though I could charge $50). So people can do what I do themselves when I leave one day! In terms of next steps, I thought it would be fun if retail had the exact same edge as Citadel and the other hedge funds? So I was planning on releasing custom LLMs for free (I was a research scientist in the past you know) and using the extra subscription revenue to subsidize compute/data costs. Think it will be fun!

I find it pretty damn ironic that they decided to post a sell rating today on $SIVE - they don’t want you to own these shares…

@BlackPantherCap I missed OUST.. I suppose there’s still time…. so touché

I’ll admit it. I was late to this one. Yday I added $SIVE to my short-term portfolio. < 6 months. When I invest I want to make sure I’ve actually covered what needs to be covered. I just don’t gamble. I like to understand WHAT I invest in. I still see at least 3X from here. -BP Please note: this is not financial advice.

@aleabitoreddit Ahhh. I see know.. queue all the fake info mongers… typical.

I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI. You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics. Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme". Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp? Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand? > Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right? At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.

@aleabitoreddit Calls went from $175 to 44k… I know because I canceled my $175 call 😂

I didn't know there was a brand new bottleneck in rental cars? $CAR up 509% in 1M. Apparently, this is a short squeeze done by institutions. > SRS / Pentwater locked up over 100%+ of the supply. > 54% of the stock was sold short. > Then Pentwater executed a massive block of call options, forcing share delivery, which was nonexistent. I have no positions, but it’s fun to watch institutions fight it out. Infinite money glitch?

$HIMS 🙌🏼

This was a gift..