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@Quantumup1

Katılım Kasım 2018
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Pharmdca
Pharmdca@Pharmdca·
Have a great weekend everyone.
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Racemate
Racemate@ChiralHorses·
$EYPT sues $OCUL
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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Morgan Stanley reiterated $XPEV Overweight; $34 $TSLA $BYDDY LI NIO Morgan Stanley said:::XPeng targets ~20% group GPM in 1Q26 and mid- to high teens group GPM for full-year 2026: Higher share of overseas sales, Ultra take rate, and scale benefits will support full-year margins, though sequential GPM contraction in 2H26 is expected in view of higher share of vehicle revenue as deliveries of new models take off. XPeng targets Rmb12bn R&D spending in 2026 (+26% YoY) — including Rmb7bn for Al initiatives (vs. Rmb4.5bn in 2025); SG&A ratio is expected to fall YoY. VLA 2.0 upgrades planned quarterly: 2Q's upgrade will significantly expand coverage in small roads and carparks. Overseas rollout planned for year-end, with testing showing impressive early results despite limited training data. XPeng looks for commercial robotaxi operations to begin 2H26 (with safety driver), targeting removal of safety driver by 2027. XPeng will also consider strategic partnerships for overseas robotaxi launch in 2027. Humanoid production targets 1k+ units/month by year-end: XPeng will initially focus on commercial scenarios, then industrial applications, before consumer expansion. Management expects hardware BoM cost to decline with mass production, though software R&D investments will remain substantial.
quantumup@Quantumup1

BofA⬆️ $XPEV PT to $29 from $27 and said, "1Q25: core biz in line; expect new models to lift GPM and ASP, new PO USD29, Buy - XPeng expect to launch Humanoid robot sales in 2026" [BofA ests +VE EPS (RMB) of 2.53 in 2026.] $TSLA $BYDDY $LI $NIO $ACHR BofA also said, "Management expects to deliver 102-108k units of vehicles in 2Q25 (+238%-258% YOY) and book RMB17.5-18.7bn in revenue (+116%-131% YoY). Factoring in 1Q25 results, we increase our 2025/26E volume sales estimates for Xpeng by 2%/7%. We now expect the 2025E non-GAAP net loss to narrow to RMB830mn (from a RMB877mn loss). We raise our 2026E non-GAAP net profit estimate by 39%. Our new PO is SD29/HKD113/share (vs. prior USD27/HKD105.3) on higher sales (see details inside). We reiterate our Buy rating as we expect a strong model pipeline in 2025-26." On Humanoid Robots, BofA said: "Xpeng expects to launch sales of its humanoid robots in 2026 for industrial and commercial clients. The company expects that it can leverage about 70% of its EV technology for the development of humanoid robot. Currently, the company's R&D team of EEA (Electrical Electronic Architecture) for EV is in charge of humanoid robot EEA development, R&D team of EV powertrain in charge of robot joint development, and EV autonomous driving team and robotic team in charge of development of the "brain" of the robot."

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quantumup
quantumup@Quantumup1·
Raymond James reiterated $RLAY Strong Buy; $19 $NVS LLY $CELC AZN Here's what Raymond James had to say in its note to investor:
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quantumup@Quantumup1

Citizens reiterated $RLAY Market Outperform/$15 $CELC $NVS AZN Citizens said — Relay Therapeutics is set to present, for the first time, Ph2 data for the 400mg BID fed zovegalisib cohort at ESMO Targeted Anticancer Therapies Congress 2026 on Monday, March 16. The ongoing ReDiscover-2 Phase 3 trial is evaluating 400 mg BID administered with food. Relay will look to demonstrate efficacy comparable to prior data (@600mg) to support the RP3D selection and further validate the ongoing registrational program. We maintain our Market Outperform rating and $15 DCF-derived price target.

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Pharmdca
Pharmdca@Pharmdca·
$VKTX Pipeline in a nutshell. Grossly undervalued. Active partnering dialogue is ongoing across pipeline assets (including MASH) Oral VK2735 Ph3 • Oral advanced directly into Ph3 • Target dose range narrowed to ~20–60 mg and Co highlighted encouraging efficacy even in 15 mg cohort. • Oral PK appears broadly comparable to subq (oral t½ ~8–9 days vs. subQ ~8–10 days). • Phase 3 oral design: • Smaller sample size (~75% reduction) and shorter duration than VANQUISH. Cost much lower vs SubQ PH3 trial. Faster enrollment and earlier to market. • Reduced pill burden (max two tablets vs. up to four in Ph2). This should bode well from safety standpoint. Less GI issues. • Lower starting dose and shorter titration to reduce GI burden. Maintenance study • This is a major near-term catalyst • Weekly to monthly injectable transitions • Injectable to oral maintenance Subq Ph3 VANQUISH-1 is fully enrolled VANQUISH-2 will finish enrollment this quarter. PR any day Co may potentially include a maintenance arm in the Ph3 1yr OLE, pending positive data from the maintenance study. PH3 data in 2027 Amylin Ph1 SAD data is expected by year-end. This is another big catalyst this year besides the Maintenance Study data. Financial & Strategic Positioning Co currently has greater than $700M cash, to fund through 3 major milestones - sub Ph3 + commercial readiness, maintenance Ph1, and oral Ph3 - as well as earlier pipeline including amylin through Ph2. Co believes Ph3 oral trials are materially cheaper due to smaller size, shorter duration
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quantumup@Quantumup1·
BofA⬆️ $RYTM's PT to $149 from $139 and reiterated at a Buy rating. $LLY $NVO VKTX GPCR AMGN BofA said—Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (ticker: RYTM) announced the FDA approval of setmelanotide for acquired hypothalamic obesity (aHO), noting that the broad label had no material surprises and the approval comes with no post-marketing commitments. We are encouraged by the approval that was in-line with our expectations given the supportive phase 3 data and continued positive feedback from KOLs. Management highlighted aHO is roughly double the size of BBS but with a more well identified population (~10K US prevalent patients). On launch strategy, RYTM looks to leverage prior payor work done for their existing rare obesity indications and noted they had already increased their sales force last year to support the expanded opportunity. We view aHO as a potential multi-blockbuster opportunity for the company given Imcivree's differentiated clinical profile and no near-term competition. While the ultimate launch trajectory will depend on disease / therapy awareness and payor coverage, we think RYTM is well positioned to capitalize on the untapped aHO market (no other approved therapies). We currently model FY26 aHO sales of $59.6mn (cons: $44mn) and peak aHO franchise sales of $3.2bn. Management guides to updating the Street on typical launch metrics throughout the launch (scripts, coverage, physicians, etc.). We reiterate our Buy with new $149 PO as we view RYTM as a leader in the rare obesity space with more opportunities for upside from next-gen assets and follow-on indications.
quantumup@Quantumup1

Stifel reiterated $RYTM Buy; $131. $LLY $NVO Stifel said in its note::We remain Buy rated on RYTM, and while the failure of EMANATE is a disappointment, this indication expansion opportunity was not core to our thesis on the stock, which centers around the blockbuster Imcivree opportunity in HO and the longevity of RYTM's franchise with bivamelagon/RM-718 as life-cycle extenders. Candidly we had thought that at least one sub-population in the EMANATE basket study could've resulted in a fileable dataset. That said, in our model we only had~$100MM risk-adjusted sales from EMANATE indications in 2031 (~$300MM in 2034), which is obviously modest compared to HO which we believe can be >$2B globally at peak. Moreover, there was an efficacy signal here and there still is the opportunity for RYTM to try to leverage learning from EMANATE and address multiple of these sub-populations with one of their next-gen MC4Rs, which appears to be the plan.

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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Canaccord Genuity⬆️ $STOK's PT to $60 from $36 and reiterated at a Buy rating. $BIIB $PRAX DRUG UCBJY JAZZ HLUBF HLBBF Canaccord Genuity said—STOK filed its 2025 10-K recently, and reiterated its timeline that it expects to complete enrollment on its ongoing Phase 3 EMPEROR trial for zorevunersen for Dravet syndrome in 2Q26, with data in mid-27. The company also continues to expect to initiate a rolling new drug application (NDA) filing in 1H27. On the FDA front, the last update from the company was that the agency was comfortable with a reduction in seizure frequency as a potential path toward sooner approval, but the company was taking the longer view around its ability to include syndrome management variables in an eventual label for zorevunersen. At the time, we recommended BUYING the shares on any weakness related to this "slower" path as it made solid strategic sense to us for STOK to take this view. Needless to say, we will continue to keep a close watch on any additional back-and-forth with the FDA. Separately, we have noted for some time now that we like the product's potential to tackle Dravet syndrome, and not just its symptoms. The more we think through this dynamic, the more apparent it becomes to us that the value proposition of a potentially disease-modifying product would warrant a significantly higher price than what we modeled earlier. As such, we are raising our net price assumption from $300k to $600k/year, which we view as more representative of what the product might bring to the table for a high-unmet need indication such as Dravet syndrome. This is the key reason behind our price target going up substantially from $36 to $60. We are also reiterating our BUY as we continue to view well capitalized STOK with a cash runway into mid-2028E as significantly undervalued.
quantumup@Quantumup1

Guggenheim🏁 $STOK Buy/$60 $BIIB $PRAX DRUG UCBJY UCBJF JAZZ Guggenheim said in its initiation report: Our investment thesis on STOK centers around our positive view of its lead asset, zorevunersen, a first-in-class antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) designed to restore SCN1A haploinsufficiency, the root cause of Dravet syndrome (DS), by upregulating NaV1.1 expression. Key pillars of our thesis: (1) zorevunersen is the first drug showing disease-modifying potential in DS with benefit not only on seizure frequency but also on cognition, behavior and adaptive function, also supported by EEG biomarkers; (2) the ongoing Phase III trial is well-powered and largely de-risked by solid Phase I/lla and OLE results, and by propensity-score-weighted analyses vs. natural history, which further support the disease-modifying hypothesis. The company expects to complete enrollment in 2Q26, with top-line results in mid-2027, potentially enabling the initiation of a rolling NDA submission in 1H27. We expect zorevunersen to be approved with a broad label (addressing the full DS clinical spectrum beyond seizure control) around YE27/early 2028; (3) as the first DS therapy with disease-modifying potential, we think zorevunersen can command premium pricing. The collaboration with BIIB brings global commercial expertise ex-North America. If approved, we estimate ~$2.5B global peak sales for zorevunersen in Dravet. Not included in our model, STK-002 (OPA1 ASO), currently in a Phase I trial, may provide further upside (initial Phase I results are expected by STOK~YE26).

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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Raymond James on $TSHA (Strong Buy; $13) said, Remain Strong Buy rated on TSHA shares and come away from the company's 4Q25 earnings call feeling incrementally more confident in management's articulated plan to file on 6-month REVEAL Part B data. $NGNE $ACAD AVXL Raymond James added—Given the written FDA feedback around equivalency between Part A and Part B product, and given that that Part A patients (n=12) will have a 12-month follow-up, and be included in the BLA, we feel confident that the overall package, once submitted, will be sufficient for filing. With 6-month Part B data anticipated YE26, we assume a 1H27 BLA filing and 4Q27 approval and launch. When combined with a clear risk/reward advantage vis-a-vis competitor NGN-401 and a large, unmet need among the Rett syndrome patient population, we anticipate strong uptake with revenue of $92.2M, $284.0M, $545.6M, and $846.1M for FY27-FY30, respectively. Price target remains $13.
quantumup@Quantumup1

Citizens $TSHA Market Outperform/$8 $NGNE $NVS ACAD AVXL ALPMY Citizens said—Taysha (TSHA, MO, $8 PT) and Neurogene (NGNE, NC) are moving into registrational studies and both show significant promise. Both registrational studies are well-designed, according to Dr. Davies, to capture improvements in clinical benefit and leverage primary outcomes that are objective measurements of performance outcomes and not patient/caregiver reported or effort based, which are less meaningful.

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Pharmdca
Pharmdca@Pharmdca·
$LRMR This is what I stated earlier about risk reward setup into Q2 William Blair reiterated $LRMR at an Outperform rating. Larimar continues to work toward a potential accelerated approval filing for nomlabofusp in Freidreich's ataxia (FA) in June 2026. This would be the first potentially approved disease modifying frataxin (FXN) replacement therapy for FA patients. Shares are up about 5% in trading but are still majorly undervalued, in our view, given Biogen's (BIIB $182.66; Outperform) $7.3 billion acquisition of Reata for Skyclarys, which halts the disease for one year before patients resume the normal disease trajectory. The setup here is not without risk (predominantly regulatory and anaphylactic safety in nature), but there is clearly favorable risk/reward in the stock.
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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Cantor reiterated $SRRK Top Pick; Overweight $RHHBY BIIB LLY NVO IONS $PTCT Cantor said—Earlier today, Genentech/Roche (Not Covered) sent a letter to the SMA community that included an update on the development of emugrobart, an anti-myostatin antibody (previously known as GYM329). Let us know if you want the letter. According to the letter, Genentech/Roche has made the difficult decision not to advance emugrobart. This decision follows a review of initial data from company's Phase 2/3 trial evaluating emugrobart in combination with risdiplan. That trial failed to show emugrobart capable of improving motor function compared to treatment with risdiplam alone. This news is unfortunate for an SMA community that remains in need of new therapies. On the other hand, emugrobart was trailing SRRK's apitegromab in development by several years, and seemingly offered little in the way of differentiation now that SRRK appears able to formulate apitegromab for SubQ delivery. We now expect apitegromab to have near complete market share as the lone muscle-building therapy for SMA patients. We continue to view apitegromab's FDA approval as a likely 2026 event and definitively a "when not if" occurrence. SRRK remains a top pick based upon the drug's multibillion dollar potential. Emugrobart has also been in Phase 2 development for FSHD. It is unclear whether development in that indication will continue. Recall that SRRK has recently begun its own Phase 2 trial on apitegromab in that indication.
quantumup@Quantumup1

JPMorgan⬆️ $SRRK's PT to $50 from $47and reiterated at an Overweight rating. $RHHBY $BIIB LLY NVO JPMorgan said in its note—We continue to recommend SRRK into the balance of 2026 and believe apiteg romab should be approved with a broad label (2yo+) and see a strong launch in SMA given the clinical data and high unmet need. We see the drug growing to be a >$2B product in worldwide sales over time. Notably, we recently attended the Muscular Dystrophy Association (MDA) conference (Mar. 8-11, 2026; Orlando, FL) in-person and had the opportunity to attend several sessions focused on spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) where KOLs emphasized the urgency to diagnose and treat early (i.e., time is muscle); we heard in our conversations with KOLs that the focus for apitegromab's use, if approved, will be on patients who are showing functional decline despite treatment with currently available SMN-targeted therapies.

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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Guggenheim reiterated $LRMR Buy; $26 $BIIB $SLDB LXEO PTCT Guggenheim said in its note—Following FY25 release, we touched base with mgmt and key takeaways include: (1) FDA continues to align on BLA pathway, reaffirming willingness to consider FXN as a novel surrogate endpoint, and agreed to the use of matched subjects from the FACOMS natural history database as a reference population for clinical endpoint comparisons; (2) a Breakthrough Therapy Designation was granted by the FDA to nomlabofusp for the treatment of Friedreich's ataxia (FA), based on available clinical data from the ongoing OL study, underscoring the significant unmet need and therapeutic potential of the drug (see HERE); (3) BLA submission is on track for June 2026, with top-line OL data expected by LRMR in 2Q26 featuring an expanded patient cohort beyond the prior 38 patients, including >10 with at least 1-year follow-up and some up to 2 years. The data release will include a natural history comparison analysis using matched subjects from the FACOMS database as an external reference population; (4) Phase 3 screening initiation in 2Q26, with first patient dosing mid-2026, and U.S. launch targeted for 1H27, upon potential approval; (5) LRMR recently launched an expanded disease awareness website (thenextchapterinfa.com) as part of its pre-launch preparation. Notably, the website cites that 94% of physicians agree patient needs aren't being met in FA treatment, underscoring the significant market opportunity for nomlabofusp; (6) following a $115MM public offering closed in February, the company has pro forma cash of $244.5MM, extending runway into 2Q27. With multiple near-term catalysts on the horizon, we see substantial upside potential as the company further de-risks its path toward a potential 1H27 launch. Reiterate BUY, $26 PT.
quantumup@Quantumup1

Wedbush⬆️ $LRMR's PT to $12 and reiterated at an Outperform rating. $BIIB $SLDB LXEO PTCT Wedbush said—Last week, LRMR completed an upsized $100M offering following receipt of Breakthrough Therapy designation for nomlabofusp in Friedreich's ataxia. After incorporating the raise, we are also increasing our 4Q25 spending to tie with YE25 cash ~$137M. LRMR remains on track for a ~June 2026 nomlabofusp BLA submission and presuming Priority Review is granted, this could translate to an approval decision as soon as ~February 2027. We continue to assume commercial launch in 2Q27. While we acknowledge recent FDA decisions have been a source of concern for investors, we are encouraged LRMR continues to hold an active dialog with the agency. Most important remains continued alignment on key elements of the nomlabofusp BLA review package. The net of our updates yields a new $12 target (prior $11) and we remain Outperform rated on LRMR.

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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Barclays reiterated $XERS Overweight; $9, and said: Current Mkt Cap <$1B Feels Punitive Given $4B Peak Sales. $CORT Torrent Pharmaceuticals Limited/Somerset Therapeutics, LLC $AMPH ZLDPY NVO TEVA Barclays added:::LOE Concerns Feel Overblown With a breakout year in 2025 (shares +130%), XERS stock has been volatile in 2026 due primarily to 1) Recorlev LOE concerns and 2) macro volatility. While we have less visibility into the macro, we think the LOE concerns are overblown and came away from our Miami conf with increased conviction.
quantumup@Quantumup1

H.C. Wainwright keeps $XERS at Buy; $10, and said in its 2026 [JPM] Conference Takeaways Packet: [ $CORT $TEVA ] Upcoming Catalyst • March 2, 2026: Formal 2026 guidance and outlook following strong 2025 preliminaries. • 2026: Initiation of XP-8121 Phase 3 trial in hypothyroidism. • 2026: Continued commercial execution across Recorlev, Gvoke and Keveyis. Analyst View • Rating maintained Buy • 2025 revenues (~$292M total revenue; 4Q25 annualizing ~$344M) make 2026 consensus appear achievable or beatable, with Recorlev outperforming and ~700 patients already on therapy. • Recorlev’s growth trajectory suggests revenue could track closer to management’s long-term targets, while consensus remains conservative. • XP-8121 represents a differentiated weekly hypothyroidism therapy with $1B+ peak sales optionality, adding pipeline leverage to the commercial story. • The market still underappreciates XERS’ longer-term revenue goals (2030 target: ~$750M+) and pipeline optionality, despite a growth profile that compares favorably to peers. Actionable Takeaways • Bull Thesis: Recorlev’s growth trajectory suggests revenue could track closer to management’s long-term targets of $750MM+ by 2030, while consensus remains conservative. XP-8121 represents a differentiated weekly hypothyroidism therapy with $1B+ peak sales optionality. • Bear Thesis: Timeline for the XP-8121 Phase 3 trial remains an uncertainty. Payer access for Recorlev and the ability to maintain current patient-titration trends are the primary commercial risks that could stall the EBITDA inflection. If growth was to stall, valuation may look closer to the group than undervalued. • What is Currently Priced into XERS Stock: The market still under-appreciates XERS’ longerterm revenue goals and pipeline optionality. Consensus remains conservative on Recorlev growth, ignoring the potential for the stock to re-rate as a high-growth, diversified specialty biopharma player.

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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Cantor reiterated $ANNX Overweight ISEE - $ALPMY BofA reit'd Buy; $8 after ANNX's Geographic Atrophy Investor Day where BofA said: Vonaprument's novel MoA could drive visual acuity benefit Cantor said—We updated our market model to include patients with min to moderate visual impairment and Izervay pricing of~$25.2K. Additional updates included updating 2026 population estimates, and adjusting equity raise assumptions, which slightly reduced 2026 EPS estimates. As a result, our NPV increased from $1.6B to $3.5B. BofA also said—We attended ANNX's GA Investor Event in NYC. The company highlighted vonaprument's novel mechanism of action targeting C1q as a key point of differentiation over currently approved complement inhibitors targeting C3/5. They noted that C1q inhibition results in photoreceptor protection and has an effect on early stages of disease, while C3/5 inhibition acts later in the disease process resulting in protection of RPE cells. ANNX underscored that the totality of data from the phase 2 ARCHER trial showing evidence of photoreceptor protection gives them confidence in the initial findings of visual acuity benefit despite not seeing clear benefit on GA lesion growth. We came away encouraged by the totality of data supporting the potential to show visual acuity benefit, which we think could be a key point of differentiation and drive adoption in GA, but think this still needs to be validated in the clinic. We currently model $296mn in risk-adjusted peak sales in GA with a 30% LoS. We maintain our Buy rating and $8 PO.
quantumup@Quantumup1

TD Cowen reit'd $ANNX Buy~after full data from the P3 trial of ANX005 in GBS were presented@ PNS. TD says, "the additional analyses support approval and adoption, in our opinion;" thinks 005's efficacy, rapid onset, clean safety/convenient dosing will lead2 rapid/broad adoption:

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quantumup@Quantumup1·
RBC Capital⬆️ $FDMT's PT to $35 from $32 and reiterated at Outperform after FDMT reported Q4 results. $OCUL $EYPT SRZN REGN RHHBY KOD OTSKY RBC Capital said:::On wAMD, the NA pivotal study completed enrollment in Feb. 2026 with >500 patients expected to be randomized and is on track to read out 1H27. The second global, pivotal study is on track to reach full enrollment 2H26 and read out 2H27. Additional 2-year follow-up data from Phase Ilb broad population in PRISM are expected mid-2026. A single DME global pivotal remains on track to initiate 3Q26. On CF, Phase II is ongoing and program update is expected 2H26. Overall, we think FDMT has an ideal benefit/risk profile for wAMD/ DME, Phase I/II data shows consistent GTx safety/durability, plus we like the recent funding (Otsuka deal/equity raise adding ~$185m) to support DME and add some cushion to the runway (2025 ended with $514m and runway into 2H28, well past the wAMD readouts). We continue to see an attractive entry point at the current valuation vs other players in the eye space ($ -~ 80m EV vs $1.1b EV for OCUL). We increase our PT to $35 from $32 to reflect the quarter. Reiterate OP, Spec. Risk.
quantumup@Quantumup1

RBC Capital reiterated $FDMT Outperform-$26, and said Boston NDR Strengthens Its Conviction That GTx Will Have a Role in the $15b Retina Market $OCUL $EYPT REGN KOD RGNX - ABBV ADVM SNY RBC Capital additionally said: We hosted the CEO, CCO, and Head of IR for a Boston NDR. Our key takeaways include: 1) FDMT reminds us that durability in wAMD is in demand by docs and longer-lasting therapies are rewarded with higher revenues, 2) Mgmt thinks retina clinics will find a GTx business model to be financially sound, 3) FDMT sounded confident GTx will have role amongst a wide breadth of patients which may be differentiating vs the TKIs, 4) FDMT is open to ex-US partnerships for 4D-150, and 5) path to approval in CF could feature a small single-arm study with a natural history control. Overall, we think FDMT has an ideal benefit/risk profile for wAMD/ DME, data updates show consistent GTx safety/durability, plus we like that strategic focus has been further sharpened around ophthalmology/CF with the recent workforce reduction. While shares are +102% YTD following a positive update in DME, wAMD pivotal progress, CF funding and changes in the macro environment, we continue to see shares as undervalued with a ~$100m EV. Reiterate Outperform, Speculative Risk rating.

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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Truist🏁 $IVA Buy; $13 $LLY $MDGL NVO ALGS VKTX ALT Truist said:::In our view, Inventiva has a differentiated approach in MASH with near-term Ph3 data (2H26) that we think could result in up to +100% upside from current levels. IVA's lead asset lanifibranor has a unique MOA/profile among MASH therapies in development that could make it an ideal choice for a niche group of MASH patients with diabetes. We believe its path to approval is de-risked given strong Ph2 data and FDA approval of drugs w/ similar MOAs. Our model shows that base case 3L use in MASH F2/F3 supports $2.3B WW peak adj. rev w/ add'l upside if lani is used preferentially MASH+diabetes.
quantumup@Quantumup1

Stifel reiterated $IVA Buy/$17 $MDGL $NVO VKTX ALGS Stifel said in its note: With an over-enrolled NATiV3 trial and new leadership, IVA outlined lanifibranor/Lani's unique best-in-class profile-highlighting its unique panPPAR mechanism-of-action that offers a multi-targeted approach to addressing both underlying metabolic drivers of MASH and liver-specific fibrotic damage. The Ph.2b NATIVE trial validated this three-pronged effect (apoptosis, anti-inflammatory/antifibrotic, insulin sensitization), demonstrating both MASH resolution AND fibrosis improvement at 6 months, with pivotal NATiV3 poised for enhanced activity at 72 weeks (data 2H26). As the latest-stage program in development, the expert KOL panel saw Lani's clear positioning within the current commercial offering (Rezdiffra/ Wegovy), which leaves many patients with insufficient response or unable to remain on therapy to see clinical benefit. In a developing/growing MASH market where future treatment will shift toward holistic approaches, we think Lani will be best positioned as an oral, once-daily, well-tolerated treatment that addresses underlying metabolic disease (particularly F2/F3 patients with T2D).

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dough
dough@semodough·
$PTGX $JNJ Icotyde Label claims came better than expected, particularly around dosing/ safety/ testing: a) Nonmandatory TB testing could be an upside case given physicians consider as an adoption hinderance given key oral convenience vs. inj, and believes easy regimen/ lack of testing was one key driver for Otezla blockbuster sales despite moderate efficacy vs. other options. b) 30min avoidance of solid food post morning dose will likely be easy to comply. c) Safety looks pbo like, even better than inj on claims language.
dough@semodough

$PTGX Jefferies ⬆️PT$121 Icotyde (first-/ only-in-class oral IL23R peptide) first approval in mtos psoriais, earlier than expected. Importantly, label safety claims are super clean with limited AE &minimal testing considerations (one of key factors that physicians believe could impact adoption as a convenient oral). With to-date strong profile/ label, PTGX is confident that they can achieve all milestone/ royalty across I&I indications.

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quantumup@Quantumup1·
Truist reiterated $PTGX Buy; $110, $JNJ $ABVX ALMS ABBV TAK Truist said:::This morning, Protagonist (PTGX, Buy) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, NR) reported FDA approval of Icotyde (icotrokinra) in 12+ year old moderate to severe plaque psoriasis (PsO), marking Protagonist's official transition to a commercial company. We see strong differentiation as the first oral therapy with biologic-like efficacy in a TAM with ~8M patients, as per JNJ. We model $730M peak revenue to PTGX in royalties vs $560M consensus and note partner JNJ (JNJ, NR) estimates ico to present a~$5-10B market opportunity. With priority review for rusfertide (launch expected 2H26), we think this sets PTGX up to continue to deliver pipeline progress with strong cash position. Reiterate Buy.
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JPMorgan reiterated $PTGX Overweight; $93 and said, With shares pulling back from all-time highs in mid-Dec (-14% since Dec 12th), we wanted to re-evaluate the key levers in the story and discuss the set-up for the remainder of the year. $JNJ ABVX LLY ABBV PFE $TAK JPMorgan added: Here is our latest thinking: PTGX's valuation rides on solid momentum towards Icotyde's launch. The royalty stream from Icotyde is a solidified contributor to PTGX shares. The debate about peak sales at our desk has subsided relative to a year ago, with goalposts pointing at $10bn+, and even $15bn+. With approval and launch set for 2H in PsO, the royalty stream flowing into PTGX is becoming increasingly top of mind for investors. Investor inbound has historically focused less on the ramp, and more so on the peak sales opportunity. We expect attention to shift towards the ramp as we approach the back half of the year. Simple maths: 10% royalty on $10bn equates to $1bn. If we apply a 4-5x multiple, this roughly translates to a $5bn EV alone on the high end. As such, with most of PTGX's valuation tied to Icotyde, we believe the floor of the valuation remains solid throughout the year. With Icotyde launching in 2H, we believe investors to remain engaged. Rusfertide royalty stream remains one of the most under-appreciated components, given it is de-risked heading into potential approval in the back half. An opt-out in 2Q is inevitable and will unlock the next $400mn payout from its partner (JPM breakfast note). Simple maths: a 21% royalty on $1.5bn peak sales translates to $1.5bn EV based on a 5x multiple, which is another meaningful addition to Icotyde's contribution. As such, rusfertide remains the key disconnect in PTGX's valuation. Layering on top of the incoming royalty streams, PTGX could easily gain credit for the oral IL-17, as investors see a read-through from the prior work on Icotyde. Oral IL-17 will be the next major internal catalyst this year. With cash-on-hand becoming less of an overhang in the short term, there is less pressure to flip the next data card based on competitive reasons. What will be interesting is that the next lever could lean on the start of a Ph 2 in PsO (which signals PD is favorable in HV), or the release of Ph 1 data in a publication or at a medical meeting. With that said, the bar to get credit for oral IL-17 for PTGX, in our view, could be lower, as we expect investors to see partial read-though from Icotyde's success. Keeping the cards close to the chest after a HV trial might therefore make more sense. PTGX's move to unveil additional obesity programs at JPM two weeks ago was subtle, but interesting. The move to unveil amylin and dual G programs without much preclinical detail (Slide 51), with the next key move being a partnership, raise the question of whether this expansion is built to attract partners over the long run, or part of a bigger strategic goal in the near term.

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Jefferies⬆️ $CTMX's PT to $16 from $8 and reiterated at Buy rating. $ABBV $RHHBY Jefferies said in its note:::Stock has retraced by ~20% from +~45% at D1 following expanded Ph1a data which we view as a sig de-risking readout given a novel masked EpCAM ADC (NOTE). We think mgmt clarity and further data disclosure could address investors' debate/ curiosity, mostly driven by smaller N/ short follow-up, particularly at dose optimization. We note our view below and bull/ bear views (Chart 1). We see a buying oppty here with a rare ADC asset capable of generating an ~$1B+ opportunity in 3L+ mCRC alone, with potential ~$5B+ as into 1/2L, and possible expansion into a wide range of solid tumors with high EpCAM expression (e.g., gastric, ovarian, lung, breast).
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Oppenheimer⬆️ $CTMX to $12 from $10, reiterated at an Outperform rating, and says that data continues to support its view that CX-2051 could be a game-changer after CytomX reported updated expansion data. $ABBV $RHHBY Oppenheimer said—CytomX reported updated expansion data from CX-2051 (varsetatug masetecan) that, in our view, handily exceeded even the upside case outline in our recent scenario analysis. Confirmed ORR reached 32% at the 10 mg/kg dose with median PFS of 7.1 months, while the 8.6 mg/kg cohort showed a 20% ORR and 6.8 month PFS. Safety also improved with optimized prophylaxis. Grade 3 diarrhea fell to 10% in dose-optimization cohorts treated with prophylactic loperamide and budesonide, supporting the hypothesis raised in our KOL work that Gl tox would be manageable. These data continue to support our view that CX-2051 could be a game-changer for patients with colon cancer, and may have room to move up the treatment paradigm. Increasing PT to $12 (from $10). Reiterate Outperform.

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Cantor reiterated $TRVI Overweight; $25 after TRVI reported 4Q earnings. VRNA - $MRK $GSK Cantor said:::Initiation of multiple late-stage studies of Haduvio for IPF chronic cough, RCC, and non-IPF ILD chronic cough are expected this year. TRVI has become a preferred name for a number of specialist investors. The consistently strong efficacy and safety profile across multiple P2 studies provides confidence in P3 trial outcomes. Feedback from KOLs regarding Haduvio's profile and role in treating cough in various settings has been very strong. The unmet need across indications is high and can support peak sales in the multi-billion dollar/yr range. Questions about IP and perception of a mixed opioid agonist/antagonist have generally been addressed.
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Stifel⬆️ $TRVI's PT to $18 from $15 and reiterated at a Buy. $GSK VRNA - $MRK Here's what Stifel had to say in its note to investors: TRVI is poised to advance Haduvio into late-stage development after Ph.2 trials exceeded expectations in both IPF-CC and RCC, owing to its unique central and peripheral mechanism. Haduvio's efficacy was validated by way of highly successful readouts from both Ph.2b CORAL in IPF-CC and Ph.2a RIVER in RCC, likely attributable to its mixed kappa agonist/mu antagonist opioid MoA that targets cough both centrally in the brain and peripherally in the lungs—essentially granting the ability to target all forms of cough irrespective of disease etiology. Haduvio is the only agent to have shown benefit in reducing cough in IPF, a major detractor from quality-of-life/QoL in the terminal condition, as well as the only agent to be effective in RCC regardless of cough severity (unlike GSK/Bellus' P2X3 camlipixant which only was effective in "severe" coughers). TRVI plans to advance Haduvio into the pivotal development stage in 2026 with a thoughtful strategy to maintain future specialty pricing, focusing on IPF/ILDs first as the rarer conditions and targeting only treatment-resistant RCC patients as a follow-on label addition.

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Oppenheimer⬇️the PT on $SLNO to $80 and reiterated at Outperform. $RYTM $HRMY XBI Oppenheimer said:::We have revised our SLNO model to project a slower US launch ramp vs. our prior estimates as well as reflect a go-it-alone scenario for European commercialization following recent mgmt commentary. Nonetheless, we remain above consensus on 2026 top-line, and see upcoming events (early May's 1Q update, EU regulatory opinion ~mid-year) as offering support to the shares which have underperformed the XBI by ~30% YTD and are down ~60% since their July 2025 highs. We see greater value creation through preservation of EU economics, and recognize that the de-risking of an EMA approval—particularly if the stock is slow to recover—could catalyze an acquisitive move by a global rare disease player. We reiterate our Outperform, but lower our PT to $80 (from $110).
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H.C. Wainwright⬇️ $SLNO's PT to $100 and reiterated at a Buy rating. $RYTM $RLMD H.C. Wainwright said—Soleno Therapeutics recently reported its 4Q25 and full-year 2025 financial and operating results: (1) total 2025 VYKAT XR net sales totaled $190.4M, roughly in-line with our forecast of $189.1M; (2) from the date of FDA approval on March 26, 2025 through the end of 2025, Soleno reported 1,250 patient start forms received, including 207 in 4Q25 alone, along with 630 unique prescribers, including 136 new prescribers in 4Q25 alone, and 859 active patients on drug as of end-2025; (3) VYKAT XR currently benefits from a high degree of market access, with over 185M lives covered representing ~60% of total lives; and (4) the VYKAT XR discontinuation rate related to adverse events was approximately 12% as of end-2025, in line with our expectations, and the rate appears to be steadying. In addition, we note that the company has responded to Day 120 questions received from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and remains on track to potentially achieve European approval of VYKAT XR later this year. Soleno has achieved profitability and positive cash flow; the company reported an end-2025 total of~$506.1M in cash, cash equivalents and short- and long-term investments, after accounting for the impact of the $100M accelerated share repurchase program that was announced on November 11, 2025. We modulate our peak market share expectations for VYKAT XR in the U.S. to roughly 20% of the total Prader-Willi Syndrome (PWS) market, while noting that the failure of carbetocin and the recent pause of the pivotal trial of denatonium acetate appear to indicate a somewhat less populated competitive landscape within this indication. We reiterate our Buy rating, while modulating our 12-month price target to $100 from the prior $120 per share.

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