Québec Politics Explained

My new article is out! As polls narrow, not only does PSPP show no sign of backing down from his promise, but he has no choice but to keep pushing for a referendum. open.substack.com/pub/quebecpoli…

This morning, CAQ leadership candidates Christine Fréchette and Bernard Drainville faced off in Québec City in the first of two leadership debates. Exchanges were heated, and both candidates did not hesitate to question some of the party's past positions.

Did you know? #2 In Québec, a father and his two sons all served as premier, each for a different party. - Daniel Johnson Sr. (Union Nationale, 1966-68) - Pierre-Marc Johnson (PQ, 1985) - Daniel Johnson Jr. (Liberals, 1994)

Tomorrow, Finance Minister Éric Girard will deliver his eighth budget, the last one before this year's elections, describing it as "sober, targeted and responsible." François Legault is promising "good news" on the plan to return to a balanced budget.

Did you know? #1 In 1998, the PQ, led by Lucien Bouchard, won a comfortable majority with 76 seats, despite losing the popular vote to Jean Charest's Liberals (43.6% to 42.9%). The PLQ's better-than-expected result effectively ended Bouchard’s plans for a third referendum.

Pierre Poilievre’s support for the nomination, intended to energize his base, especially in Western Canada, has exposed cracks within the Conservative caucus. Could the decision backfire on the Conservative leader who is trying to make inroads in Québec?

Refused or no comment (3/11 MPs) - Bernard Généreux (refused to comment) - Jacques Gourde - Jason Groleau These MPs have not publicly stated a position on the nomination.

By now, many of you have probably heard about the dissent from several Québec Conservative MPs over their party’s support for awarding Don Cherry the Order of Canada. Here’s where each of them stands:

Candidates in the Terrebonne by-election: 🔴Tatiana Auguste ⚜️Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 🔵Adrienne Charles 🟠Maxime Beaudoin 🟢Benjamin Rankin 🟣Maria Cantore With the PPC re-running Maria Cantore, all six candidates are the same as in the last election, an EXACT REMATCH.

@xdncolonthree These were the preliminary results on election night before the recounts.

@QuebecPolitics i thought the vote difference was 1?

Candidates in the upcoming Terrebonne by-election: 🔴Tatiana Auguste ⚜️Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 🔵Adrienne Charles (announced today) 🟠Maxime Beaudoin 🟢Benjamin Rankin All five parties are re-running the same candidates from the last election.

Nevertheless, Mark Carney remains very popular in Québec, and the Liberal lead over the Bloc in the province appears to be as wide, if not wider, than in the last election. That means Terrebonne remains a true toss-up.

2. The race also becomes much more local. That may favour the former bloquiste MP (2021–2025), who may benefit from a "sympathy vote" after what many perceived as an injustice in the previous result, which she fought in court to overturn for almost a year.

With the latest floor crossing, the Terrebonne by-election is no longer a must-win for Mark Carney’s Liberals to reach a majority. That likely changes the dynamics of the race and may favour the Bloc Québécois, in my view. Here's why:

Fundraising in the CAQ leadership race (DGEQ): 🟡 Christine Fréchette: $64,585 🔵 Bernard Drainville: $39,435 Fréchette holds a clear lead over Drainville, just as she does in the polls. My next article will break down how the race has unfolded so far.

Gonna be a fun time in a month

Projection models on DAY 1 of the Terrebonne by-election campaign: @338Canada ⚜️ BQ +1 @RealAlbanianPat ⚜️ BQ +9 @CDNprojections ⚜️ BQ +12 A highly unpredictable race, especially with the by-election dynamics (potential Liberal majority, a Bloc sympathy vote, etc).

According to @338Canada, CAQ leadership favourite Christine Fréchette is currently projected to lose her seat to the PQ. However, the riding remains a close three-way race, and Fréchette’s chances of holding the seat have risen from 0% to 23% since she announced her bid.