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Every knee will bow & tongue confess that Jesus Christ is Lord!
Amen?
x.com/faithwillsaveu…
English
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除了美国人之外,大概华人观众现在是全世界对“七大摇摆州”最熟悉的了,墙外中文平台基本上从星期二晚上计票开始,都进行了直播。川普的非凡胜利体现在七大摇摆州,6号早上川普拿到了五个。摇摆州里最先出结果的是北卡罗莱纳、然后是佐治亚,然后最重要的摇摆州宾州(19张选举人票)也归了川普。目前摇摆州里还没有宣布谁胜选的就剩下佐治亚州和内华达州,内华达州在6号早上10点已经开出了84%的票,川普以4.7%的优势领先,这个差距也足以确保这6张选举人票落入川普囊中。亚力桑那州大约是继加州之后开票第二慢的,6号上午只开点算了6成多一点的选票,但川普也保持领先近5%的优势,这个差距也是不容易追上的。
因此七大摇摆州最终尽归川普的机会很大。这意味着什么呢?美国选举史上只有几位总统赢得过全部摇摆州。分别是:1936年的富兰克林·罗斯福;1972年的理查德·尼克森;和1984年的罗纳德·里根。当然哪些州算摇摆州随着时代也有不同,不管怎么说,那些能够一扫全部摇摆州的总统候选人,都面对着时代巨变的天象。1936年是大萧条后复兴的关键岁月,美国人把希望寄托在了小罗斯福身上;1972年美国人对越战普遍感到厌倦,忍无可忍,希望下一任总统赶紧麻溜地结束这场灾难。
1984年是美国从1970年代的颓废里复兴、和冷战的关键时刻,美国人把信任交付给了罗纳德·里根。而2024,一旦川普拿下所有摇摆州,意味着美国人希望有一个时代性的转折!
从总的选民得票率和选举人票数来讲。前面的几次例子,胜选者都取得取压倒性胜利。1984年的大选,里根赢了50个州的49个州,总得票率是58.8%、超过对手18%个百分点;也创造了得到选举人票最多的一次纪录,得到了525张选举人票,属于山崩海啸式的胜利。1936年那次大选也很夸张,小罗斯福得到了60.8%的选民票,超过了对手24%个百分点;赢得了523张选举人票。这一次川普在选民票、和选举人票方面都不会拉开哈里斯那么大差距,但这次大选仍然有两项非凡成就,一是川普很可能一扫全部摇摆州(或者绝大多数);二是选民总的投票率会很高。1972年尼克森虽然有一次山崩式的大胜,但总投票率只有55.2%;1984年里根山崩式的大胜,总投票率低到只有53.3%。
2020年大选投票率达到了66.7%,⅔有投票资格的选民都出来投票了。是20世纪以来投票率最高的一次总统大选,2024的总投票率眼下还不知道,但估计也会保持在历史高水平上,在这样一次选举中,川普拿下全部摇摆州(或绝大多数),意味着时代巨变、历史巨变的天象正在眼前!

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Many people born in the US don’t understand what America means to some people. I became an American citizen a month ago, and I want to share my story. I dreamed about America since I was 13 years old; I thought it was the best country in the whole world, and it was my biggest dream to live here. I moved to the US when I was 17. It took me 11 years to become a US citizen. I had to get six visas one after another, and every time, I had to explain and prove that I deserved it. I was so scared that I might not be worthy of a green card, and I cried when I was finally approved.
In those 11 years, I never missed a rent payment or got a ticket because I really wanted to show that I was worthy of living here. Every single day, I aimed to be the best version of myself to live in what I saw as the best country. I spent over a million dollars on rent, my car, and daily living expenses. I always paid my taxes, and I worked incredibly hard to get to this point. Becoming a US citizen is one of my biggest achievements in life. I would look at the American passports of my friends and think, “What a beautiful passport,” admiring every page, every detail. I would hold it in my hand, wishing and dreaming that one day I would open that little book and see my own photo inside. I still can’t believe it when I open my passport now and see my face. It feels too good to be true.
My whole point is that I never received any benefits or government support; I never wanted to take advantage of this country. I worked hard and was always grateful to live here. I support every legal immigrant who has gone through the same journey and made the hard choice to leave everything behind to start a new chapter for a better future.
It breaks my heart to see how some people now can just walk in and get a passport. Does this mean that all my hard work was for nothing?

English
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