Casey A. Marx

I’m finishing a book (Inheritance, June 2026) about how finance actually works; and why so many families get hurt by it. I’m also launching BullBaron (2027): a small, aligned investment collective. Here’s the story behind both ↓

Cash is not “uninvested.” It’s one of the only assets that gives you control. The industry frames cash as idle. That’s incorrect. Cash is optionality. Damodaran data: • T-bills yielded ~5%+ in recent years Now look at drawdowns: 2022: • 60/40 ≈ -17.96% • With cash ≈ -13.95% That difference compounds over time. Why? Cash: • Has near-zero duration • Maintains liquidity • Prevents forced selling This ties directly to Bengen’s sequence risk research: Early losses matter more than long-term averages. Cash reduces those losses. Conclusion: Cash is not a leftover. It is: → Risk control → Liquidity → Strategic positioning Question: Why is the one asset that gives you flexibility treated as a liability?

A new episode of the Inheritance Series is now out! This one pulls back the curtain. Not on what the brochures say. Not on what the polished websites promise. But on what actually gets said when clients are not in the room. The difference between an adviser and a converter is not always obvious from the outside. That is why families need to know the questions to ask before they trust someone with their financial future. This episode is not about attacking good advisers. It is about exposing the culture that rewards production over stewardship and helping families recognize the difference. Because authority without education is control.

@alt_w_v_g This would all be great if one is capable of achieving a 10% return like clockwork in the S&P 500 over the coming years…not likely sir.

My wife mentioned a nice private school over dinner this week She said the campus was beautiful I asked what's the tuition She said we should look at it as an investment in him not a cost I made a note She said don't make a note I said I always make notes She said this isn't a deal I said everything is a deal She closed her eyes She said we'd discuss it Saturday I agreed Saturday 7:02am She came downstairs in her Saturday robe Coffee in hand I had my cargo shorts on The dining room had been cleared The projector was on The analyst was at the head of the table Quarter zip on, three iced coffees, a legal pad, and two laptops He had been there since 6:44am I texted him at 11:14pm Friday The text said dining room 6:45am bring the model He sent a thumbs up My wife stopped in the doorway She said what is this I said you said you wanted to discuss it She said this is not a discussion I did not respond She sat down anyway The analyst stood He said good morning ma'am She did not respond He sat back down A printed deck in front of each seat A fourth copy in case Slide 1 Tuition Schedule $38,500 per year Thirteen years $500,500 nominal Before escalators The school has raised tuition 4.2% per year for a decade With escalators $648,000 My wife said okay I said I'm not done Slide 2 Opportunity Cost Even before escalators $38,500 invested annually 10% nominal return S&P long-run average since 1928 By his eighteenth birthday $944,000 My wife said we can afford it I said I know that's not the slide Slide 3 Terminal Value at Age 65 $83 million She was quiet The analyst slid the sensitivity tables across the table 8% return $31 million 10% return $83 million 12% return $222 million She did not look She said this isn't about money I said it's always about money She said no it isn't I said then what is it about She did not answer She said you can't put a dollar value on his teachers his classmates his environment I said I can the analyst already did slide 6 He flipped to slide 6 She did not look She said the school is the best in the city I said best is a feeling She said it produces the best students I said the students were already the best before they got there She said our son deserves it I said our son deserves $83 million My son walked in He is five Dinosaur pajamas He looked at the projector He looked at the open deck on the table He looked at slide 3 He said are we modeling pre-tax or after-tax The analyst opened a new tab My wife looked at the ceiling He said what's the discount rate The analyst set down his pen She closed her eyes He said is this the same return assumption from the 529 conversation The analyst stopped typing He looked at me I did not say anything She stood up Sat back down He said dad can I help I said yes He pulled up a chair The analyst handed him a printout He started reading My wife watched him read She watched him for a long time She said his name He looked up She said do you like school He said the work is too easy and the kids don't ask questions She did not respond She looked at the ceiling She walked out of the room The analyst started packing up He said should I follow up Monday sir I said no follow up needed He'll be fine Sent from my iPhone

If you’re watching the Fed funds rate, you’re watching the wrong variable. Markets don’t price off nominal rates. They price off: Real yields. Defined by the Federal Reserve (FRED): Real yield = nominal yield – expected inflation (DFII10 – T10YIE) This is the actual discount rate. Why it matters: When real yields rise: • Bonds fall (duration compression) • Stocks fall (valuation compression) 2022 showed this clearly. IMF + BIS research: → Inflation shocks increase real yield volatility → Cross-asset correlation rises Same pattern again. Implication: Tracking Fed policy ≠ tracking markets. Real yields drive pricing across asset classes. Question: If your model doesn’t explicitly track real yields… what is it actually measuring?

What is QE, and why does it matter? Most people hear “quantitative easing” and tune out. But QE affects real families. It can impact your savings, retirement plan, home value, purchasing power, and the cost of everyday life. In this week’s episode, I break down why QE is not just some complicated financial policy. It is a system that can inflate asset prices, weaken the dollar, and leave families paying for decisions they never got to make. The key takeaway: You may not control the Fed. But you can build a plan that is not completely dependent on it. Structure matters more than predictions. Preparation beats panic.

“Money printing caused inflation” is incomplete and the data doesn’t support it as a standalone explanation. Start with fiscal policy: • CARES Act ≈ $2.2T (~10% GDP) • American Rescue Plan ≈ $1.9T (~6% GDP) (Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO) That’s direct demand injection. NY Fed research: → Fiscal transfers significantly boosted goods demand Then look at consumption: BEA data: • Durable goods demand rose ~20–30% above trend (2020–2021) At the same time: Supply was constrained. • Manufacturing bottlenecks • Shipping disruptions • Labor shortages So what do you get? Demand spike + supply constraint = price increases. BIS research confirms: → Inflation becomes synchronized and persistent under these conditions Conclusion: Inflation was: → Fiscal demand shock → Supply constraint → Monetary accommodation Not just “money printing.” Question: Why is the most simplified explanation the one everyone repeats?

Most financial disasters don’t begin with greed. They begin with trust. This week’s episode of the Inheritance Series, “The Cost of Blind Trust,” tells the story of a woman who survived unimaginable hardship only to be trapped by the very person who was supposed to protect her financially. This is not just about annuities or bad advice. It’s about understanding incentives, asking better questions, and learning how to protect yourself and the people you love in a system that often rewards confusion. The goal of this series is not fear. It’s clarity. Because once you understand how the system works, you can build differently. Episode is out now.

Passive investing didn’t just win. It changed the market itself. The assumption: Passive = neutral. It’s not. It’s a structural force. ICI data: • Passive = ~51% of long-term fund assets • Up from ~19% in 2010 That shift created a feedback loop: → Money flows into index funds → Allocation follows market cap → Largest companies get the most capital → Prices rise → Weights increase Repeat. Federal Reserve + BIS research shows: • Higher passive share → higher correlation • Lower price dispersion • Reduced price discovery Meaning: Prices reflect flows more than fundamentals. Second-order risk: Passive assumes liquidity. But underlying assets don’t guarantee it under stress. Conclusion: Passive investing amplifies: → Concentration → Correlation → Fragility It doesn’t just track markets. It reshapes them. Question: At what point does “passive” stop being passive?

I just became a father 3 weeks ago and I can say, unequivocally, that it is the best thing I have ever done. Bar none.

The S&P 500 is not diversified. It’s concentrated, and most investors don’t realize how extreme it is. “500 companies” is a marketing statement. Weighting is reality. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices: • Top 10 = ~40% of the index • Magnificent 7 = ~34.9% • ~42% of total returns That means: A handful of companies are driving outcomes. Vanguard research shows this level of concentration hasn’t beeseen since the late 1960s. So what do you actually own? Not 500 independent businesses. You own a concentrated exposure to: • AI infrastructure • Cloud monopolies • Mega-cap growth • Long-duration assets sensitive to real yields And here’s the key: These companies move together. High correlation = low true diversification. Translation: The S&P 500 is a factor bet disguised as a broad market index. Question: If 40% of your portfolio is effectively the same trade… do you actually know your risk?

Love him or hate him, this is classic.

The reckoning modern finance has earned drops this fall. ‘Inheritance: Modern Finance in Reckoning’ Get it wherever books are sold.

If your “diversified” portfolio lost money in stocks and bonds… it didn’t fail. It worked exactly as designed. That’s the uncomfortable truth. For 20 years, you were told stocks and bonds offset each other. They did. But only in one regime: Falling inflation. Damodaran data: • 2000–2019 stock–bond correlation ≈ -0.66 That’s not diversification. That’s a disinflation trade. Then the regime flipped. 2020–2025: • Correlation ≈ +0.68 2022: • S&P 500 ≈ -18% • 10Y Treasuries ≈ -18% Same drawdown. Same time. BIS and IMF research is clear: → Inflation regimes drive correlation convergence → Real rate shocks hit both equities and bonds Mechanically: • Bonds fall when real yields rise • Stocks fall when discount rates rise Same variable. So let’s be precise: 60/40 is not diversification. It is a duration-weighted macro bet on falling real yields. That’s it. Question: If your entire portfolio depends on one macro variable… is that diversification or leverage?

My father built his life on integrity. He turned down opportunities that would have made him wealthy if they required compromising his values. He believed character mattered more than comfort. Watching the system dismantle what he left behind felt like betrayal. For a while, I thought it was random. It wasn’t. It was predictable. And that realization gave me purpose. I promised my father I would take care of my mother. What I didn’t realize at the time was that promise would extend to thousands of families who walked into my office carrying similar stories, different names, same pattern. This isn’t about anger anymore. It’s about architecture. If you understand how the system works, you can design around it. You can build structures that protect instead of expose. You can choose advisors aligned by obligation, not commission. You can rebuild. It can’t all be for nothing. And it doesn’t have to be your story next.

A new episode of the Inheritance Series is out: Who Does the Fed Really Protect? Most people were taught the Federal Reserve exists to protect the economy… and by extension, protect you. That’s not how it actually works. This episode breaks down what the Fed was really built to do, who benefits when it steps in, and why so many families feel like they’re falling behind even when they’re doing everything right. This isn’t about blame. It’s about understanding the system so you can make better decisions inside of it. Because once you see how it works, things start to make a lot more sense.

@NarutoNolimits @grok what interview is this from?

Eric Weinstein: Tsunami of disruption is coming for the average person

@Steezehuman Realizing that these ‘things’ are not the answer. And subsequently becoming incredibly depressed if you have any soul whatsoever. Only when you have everything do you truly understand how little it all means.

After achieving all these, what next in life ?

One of the most expensive misunderstandings families make is assuming that “advisor” means the same thing as “fiduciary.” It doesn’t. An advisor can recommend a product that pays them well. A fiduciary is legally required to put your interests ahead of their own. That distinction would have changed my mother’s life. You must ask how someone is paid and by whom. You must fill out your own risk form. You must understand that confidence is not competence and that marketing language is not protection. The financial industry is fluent in sounding responsible while extracting value quietly over time. Your job is not to master every detail. Your job is to understand the incentive structure. When you understand who profits, clarity replaces confusion.

@Mr_Derivatives Euphoria a long time ago.

A) Optimism B) Belief C) Thrill D) Euphoria Which one?