Chamberlain's Ghost

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Chamberlain's Ghost

Chamberlain's Ghost

@RSA_Observer

History, geopolitics, social issues. Peels apples with scalpels. Quiet civil conversations. Mostly somewhere in the moderate middle. Mute button enthusiast.

Katılım Ağustos 2011
950 Takip Edilen4.4K Takipçiler
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
Some of you may wonder about the name of this profile - Chamberlain's Ghost. Just briefly, when this war started in early 2022, I strongly expressed the view that Ukraine should seek a settlement with Russia as soon as possible. This was long before we all learned about the abortive Istanbul negotiations. For this I was pilloried by friend, family, acquaintance and stranger alike. I was labelled 'Putin's shill', 'Munich appeaser', 'Neville Chamberlain' and and many other things besides. But I was right then and I am still right now. The only solution to this war for Ukraine was and still is a negotiated peace. The only difference now from then is that now the terms will be worse, many people have died and a great deal of destruction has been done. This was, in the greater sense of matters, an avoidable war. People did not need to die and a country did not need to be wrecked. But in substance ideology preceded pragmatism.
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
Yes, but the key difference is that the US and Russia are single polities. Europe is anything but.
Open Source Intel@Osint613

NATO's Rutte: Europe, with the UK and Türkiye and with Norway, is over 500 million people. We are facing an adversary in Russia of about 120 to 140 million people. And we are now overly dependent on one ally with about 350 million people making sure that we can defend ourselves against Russia. That's not sustainable long term.

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Pandem(on)ical Order of Good Cheer
Pandem(on)ical Order of Good Cheer@EmpireinWinter·
Should it not also strike us as strange that Iran does not more or less automatically insist that Israel's nuclear-weapons program be formally acknowledged as a necessary condition of any discussion of Iran's nuclear enrichment program--every. time. it's. discussed?
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer

Does it ever strike you as strange that the one thing the US has never demanded of Iran - and which is really at the heart of issues - is that it should formally recognise Israel's sovereignty? At a certain level, the question of nukes and long range missiles is secondary in that they only act in support of Iran's denial of Israel's sovereignty.

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Chamberlain's Ghost retweetledi
Iuliia Mendel
Iuliia Mendel@IuliiaMendel·
The situation on the Slaviansk front remains highly chaotic as Russia continues heavy pressure across the entire line, exploiting gaps in defense caused by personnel shortages, @Deepstate_UA analysis says. Russian forces are infiltrating deeper, attempting to consolidate positions and create serious threats to Ukrainian rear areas, particularly by pushing from Riznykivka and Kalenyky toward Rai-Oleksandrivka. Active fighting continues in Zakitne, where Russian troops are reported in large numbers, with recent detections and strikes on them in Ozernе. Russian aviation is operating intensively, striking Ukrainian positions and logistics, while Ukrainian pilots from reinforcements are being urgently prepared to counter them. Pressure is also ongoing along the Nikiforivka-Fedorivka Druha-Pryvillia-Minkivka-Novomarkove-Markove axis.
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
⬇️ A point we all know already. Even if Ukraine wins, it still loses. There is no realistic Marshall Plan for Ukraine and there will be no baby boomer generation. This war is nothing but a catastrophe for Ukraine.
Iuliia Mendel@IuliiaMendel

Since gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine has lost nearly half its population. Back then, the country had 52 million people. Today, even the most optimistic estimates put the figure at around 25 million — and the decline is accelerating. Almost half the population are pensioners, the birth rate is catastrophically low, and the war continues to claim lives while driving away those who simply want to live. In 2025 alone, Ukraine recorded just around 170 thousand births but 485 thousand deaths — nearly three times more people died than were born. Add to that roughly 300,000 official emigrants (with the real number likely significantly higher), and Ukraine is losing over 600,000 people per year on conservative estimates. At this rate, in just ten years the population could fall below 20 million. Every third Ukrainian student no longer sees a future in their own country. These are catastrophic figures. War has made Ukraine a place where life and a hopeful future feel increasingly impossible. Yet somehow, the war lobby continues to enjoy excellent funding.

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shaul Arieli שאול אריאלי
shaul Arieli שאול אריאלי@shaulari·
On May 6, 2025, Smotrich said, according to The Times of Israel: “Within a few months, we will be able to declare that we have won. Gaza will be completely destroyed.” He added that Gaza’s population, about 2.3 million Palestinians, would be concentrated in a narrow strip between the Egyptian border and the Morag Corridor, while the rest of the Strip “will be empty.” He further said that the Palestinians “will be completely desperate” and will seek “relocation” to other places. Although the spatial implementation is somewhat different from Smotrich’s forecast, the idea is gradually being realized through the shift from the agreed yellow line to a creeping orange line.
shaul Arieli שאול אריאלי tweet media
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
Further reflections on this issue in my post below. The last time the US lost this number of aircraft in a single campaign was probably Vietnam. Trump must be aware that the recent rescue of the F15-E Weapons Systems Officer from within Iran nearly turned into a total catastrophe - both militarily and politically - and is unlikely of being easily repeated again. They inserted a large contingent of highly trained personnel for the recovery and a lot of small arms fire was taken by the second wave extraction teams. By all accounts, amongst other things, one of the A10s was heavily hit. It would probably only have taken the presence of a few manpads for it to have turned out much worse than Eagle Claw. And there will be no greater political disaster for Trump than a Tehran parade of American POWs off the back of an already unpopular war and a Congress where at least four Senate Republicans already want to curtail matters. When you look at it this way - and given the standoff munitions depletion issue that I mention below - a renewed bombing campaign is not at all an easy or risk free decision for Trump.
Chamberlain's Ghost tweet media
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer

NYTimes. Maybe also the Iranian air defences are simply better than they previously were. Either way it's a "complication" given US stockpile depletion of standoff munitions that don't require delivery by aircraft.

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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
Although competition is not necessarily unhealthy per se. But you have a point in this context. Yes, allies almost always come at a cost too. But the Europeans and Japanese et al would also have a basis for making the same statement, depending up the angle at which one looks at the point.
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Tannhäuser
Tannhäuser@Tannhaeuse23919·
@RSA_Observer Why do they constantly think in terms of competition and winning? This is a more fundamental problem. Also allies come at a cost--Trump has half a point on this.
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
He's right.
Clash Report@clashreport

Former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken: If we're competing with China one-on-one, that's a game that we may lose. Their market's much bigger, their manufacturing is three times our manufacturing. Purchasing power parity is greater than ours, more papers, more patents, a bigger navy — you can go down the list. But when we're aligned with Europe, with Japan, with Korea, with India, with Australia, with Canada, we go from about 25% of world GDP to 50 or 60%. A lot harder for China to ignore.

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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
Gift link here: x.com/i/status/20568…
Ronen Bergman@ronenbergman

A NYTimes Exclusive: Days after Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader, President Trump mused publicly that it would be best if “someone from within” Iran took over the country. It turns out that the United States and Israel went into the conflict with a particular and very surprising someone in mind: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president known for his hard-line, anti-Israel and anti-American views. To say that Mr. Ahmadinejad was an unusual choice would be a vast understatement. But U.S. officials spoke during the early days of the war about plans developed with Israel to identify a pragmatist who could take over the country. Officials insisted that there was intelligence that some within the Iranian regime would be willing to work with the United States, even if those people couldn’t be described as “moderates.” But the audacious plan, developed by the Israelis and which Ahmadinejad had been consulted about, quickly went awry, according to the U.S. officials who were briefed on it. There are many unanswered questions about how Israel and the United States planned to put Mr. Ahmadinejad in power, and the circumstances surrounding the airstrike that injured him. American officials said that the strike — carried out by the Israeli Air Force — was meant to kill the guards watching over Mr. Ahmadinejad as part of a plan to release him from house arrest. W\ @MarkMazzettiNYT @julianbarnes and @farnazfassihi via @nytimes nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/…

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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
Surprising but in some ways sane. While Ahmadinejad is anti-Israeli and accelerated Iran's nuclear program, he's also a deep pragmatist.
Yashar Ali 🐘@yashar

BREAKING In a story bylined by several of The New York Times’ top national security reporters, including Israel-based reporter Ronen Bergman, the Times reveals a quixotic and shocking Israeli-engineered plan to free Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from house arrest and install him as Iran’s leader. An Israeli strike on Ahmadinejad’s home in Tehran was not primarily meant to kill him. It was allegedly designed to kill the IRGC guards holding him under house arrest and free him. The plan apparently went sideways almost immediately. Ahmadinejad survived, but after the “near miss,” he became disillusioned with the regime-change plan. He has not been seen publicly since, and the Times says his current condition and whereabouts are unknown. Ahmadinejad had recently traveled to Guatemala and Hungary — both countries with close ties to Israel. The article also notes that Ahmadinejad had returned from Budapest just days before Israel began attacking Iran the previous June, and that once the war broke out, he kept a strangely low profile for someone who had spent years presenting Israel as Iran’s central enemy. Full Story: nyti.ms/4eXVXS8

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BuySellStop
BuySellStop@BuySellStopcom·
@RSA_Observer Why ask the nutjobs that kind of question. I am surprised Trump even decided to negotiate. If the US Military just took out a few more refineries, Iran would be out of gasoline already.
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
Does it ever strike you as strange that the one thing the US has never demanded of Iran - and which is really at the heart of issues - is that it should formally recognise Israel's sovereignty? At a certain level, the question of nukes and long range missiles is secondary in that they only act in support of Iran's denial of Israel's sovereignty.
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Tannhäuser
Tannhäuser@Tannhaeuse23919·
@RSA_Observer this is how the military-industrial complex milks the gov. There is little profit in cheap drones.
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
"the Pentagon is a “finicky customer that buys in small batches and never achieves economies of scale” " "the problem [is] a culture in which the Pentagon invests in very expensive weapons systems that are difficult to keep in the field"
Chamberlain's Ghost tweet media
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
NYTimes. Maybe also the Iranian air defences are simply better than they previously were. Either way it's a "complication" given US stockpile depletion of standoff munitions that don't require delivery by aircraft.
Chamberlain's Ghost tweet media
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Hananya Naftali
Hananya Naftali@HananyaNaftali·
This was Iran before the Islamic Revolution.
Hananya Naftali tweet media
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Chamberlain's Ghost
Chamberlain's Ghost@RSA_Observer·
Used to have one in electric form. They work well but you have to keep the underside very clean or they start to "stick" to the grass and become hard to push around. They're otherwise quite convenient and easy to manoeuvre. But have no grass box. Wheeled mowers are in general terms more practical IMO.
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Frank Brown
Frank Brown@FrankBr05713205·
How many of you have seen or perhaps used one of these hover lawnmowers by Flymo? This is a 1980s model and was very popular for a while until they were banned for use in the United States due to safety reasons from what I understand. They had no wheels and rode on a cushion of air so they’re very easy to push. They’re still available in other countries and even in electric models.
Frank Brown tweet mediaFrank Brown tweet media
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Keşfet

@EmpireinWinter @Deepstate_UA @BuySellStopcom @Tannhaeuse23919 @jdanielcook @BraudelMarx @elonmusk @BarackObama