RTÉ Dublin Bay South

Eoin Hayes celebrates a major upset by overtaking Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews to win the final seat in Dublin Bay South #Election24#GE24

You read it here first… When it was only a possible path to election. Eoin Hayes takes the first ever seat for The Social Democrats in Dublin Bay South Chris Andrews eliminated

@TheFitzconner The word ‘Arguably’ suggests we’re in a hypothetical and contestable arena. Sorry if the context was confusing for you. The accuracy of our prediction is being borne out as we speak. Hayes’ election is imminent.

Taking a long view, over the 6 elections since 2000, the “average” result in Dublin Bay South is 1 FG 1 FF 1 Green 1 Labour Arguably, in 2020, SF won that Labour seat, then Eoin Murphy’s resignation let Labour back in. Today Labour held on, SF lost & Soc Dems took Green’s seat

That should be spelled *Eoin* Hayes… It’s been a long couple of days

Social Democrat Eoghan Hayes is now some 500 votes ahead of Sinn Féin’s TD Chris Andrews. The only remaining votes are the 580 surplus which Ivana Bacik got from Emma Blain in Count 9. These will favour Hayes, electing him on 12th & final count. No sign of Andrews at Count

Count 11 As we’ve been predicting for several hours now… Jim O’Callaghan’s surplus breaks heavily (8:1) for social Democrat Eoin Hayes over Sinn Féin’s Chris Andrews (a former Fianna Fáil poll topper here, back in 2007). But over half non transferable. Final count to come

Of course, in reality, every seat & every vote belongs to the people. The point is that while Social Democrat have taken a Sinn Fein seat, for context, SF has only ever won once here in their modern history… when Chris Andrews won this seat in 2020.

This just in. Around 70% of Jim O’Callaghan’s surplus is non transferable. That brings Ivana Bacik’s surplus of 580 votes into play. Eoin Hayes still hot favourite to take seat #4, but “surplus pinball” continues… If only more people voted all the way down the ballot paper

21 hours ago, we flagged the possibility that Hazel Chu’s transfers could put Social Democrat Eoin Hayes in the mix for the final seat… That’s precisely what’s happened. He’s now on course to overtake SF’s Chris Andrews & win the Soc Dems first ever seat in Dublin Bay South

After the dramatic arrival & departure of Gerry Hutch, we’re in “Surplus Purgatory” here in Dublin Bay South. FG candidate James Geoghegan’s surplus elected FF’s Jim O’Callaghan, with a surplus of his own. That favours the Soc Dems, making them strong favourites over Sinn Fein

Jim O’Callaghan (FF) elected in the 10th count. He credits party leader Micheál Martin with for Fianna Fáils success #Election24#GE24

Count 10 FF’s Jim O’Callaghan elected, with over 2,300 votes from James Geoghegan’s surplus. That gives O’Callaghan a surplus of 1,794. About half of that is non transferable. Very little goes to SF’s Chris Andrews. Soc Dem Eoin Hayes is only 200 behind and likely to get 700+

Looking in depth at the Geoghegan to O’Callaghan transfers, almost none transfer to SF. However around half don’t transfer at all. That could lead to a photo finish here as Soc Dem Eoin Hayes wants every vote he can get, to overtake Andrews’ 450 vote lead.

James Geoghegan’s surplus is being counted now. Because he was elected on Count 9, (following Emma Blain’s elimination) those are the 2,700 votes in play. Less than 50 (so far) to SF The majority to FF’s Jim O’Callaghan The rest to Soc Dems, Eoin Hayes.

Geoghegan and Bacik surplus on the left… (2,693 & 585) On the right, the gap that Jim O’Callaghan Chris Andrews @ Eoin Hayes need to hit the quota. In practice, it’s about who’s ahead at the final elimination. If Andrews or Hayes is eliminated, the other wins automatically

We’re expecting Bacik and Geoghegan to be elected shortly. Their surplus votes, from Emma Blain, will then be redistributed, likely favouring Fianna Fáil and the Soc Dems over Sinn Féin.

All four seats in Dublin Bay South expected to be filled shortly, by Ivana Bacik (Labour) James Geoghegan (Fine Gael) Jim O’Callaghan (Fianna Fail) & - almost definitely - Eoin Hayes (Social Democrat) With Sinn Fein TD Chris Andrews losing his seat.