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ربدان بن بدران
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ربدان بن بدران
@Rabdanbinbadran
دكتوراه في حب الوطن وماجستير في عشق الوطن وبكالوريوس في الدفاع عن الوطن ودبلوم في الوفاء للوطن 🇦🇪🇦🇪🇦🇪
دبي, الامارات العربية المتحدة Katılım Temmuz 2020
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وزير الخارجية الإيراني الأسبق جواد ظريف@JZarif يكتب مقالًا هامًا في "فورين أفيرز" @ForeignAffairs يقدم فيه رؤيته للوصول إلى صفقة سلام تنهي الحرب، وفيما يلي ما جاء فيه:
- صحيح أننا نستطيع تحمل الضربات الأمريكية والإسرائيلية لكن إطالة أمد الحرب يهدد البنية التحتية الاقتصادية والمدنية في إيران.
- يجب أن تقدم إيران مبادرة تقوم على فتح مضيق هرمز ووضع قيود على البرنامج النووي مقابل رفع جميع العقوبات.
- يمكن للصفقة أن تشمل معاهدة عدم اعتداء بين إيران وأمريكا، وفرص اقتصادية لواشنطن في إيران.
- هذه المعاهدة ستجعل المسؤولين الإيرانيين أكثر تركيزًا على تنمية بلادهم من مواجهة أعدائهم.
- يمكن كذلك لإيران أن تتعهد بعدم تطوير أسلحة نووية وأن توافق على تحويل اليورانيوم المخصب لديها إلى نسب أقل (3.67%).. والانضمام إلى تكتل إقليمي لتخصيب اليورانيوم، على أن تحول كل المواد النووية إليه.
- أمريكا والصين وروسيا بإمكانهم دعم إنشاء هذا التكتل على أن يضم إيران ودول الخليج.
-يمكن أيضًا في إطار الصفقة الشاملة إنشاء تكتل أمني يضم إيران وجميع دول الخليج والعراق واليمن وباكستان وتركيا ومصر .. يقوم على احترام السيادة وعدم الاعتداء وحرية الملاحة.

العربية
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مقال الدكتور بهجت قرني بعنوان حسابات الخسارة والمكسب لهذه الحرب:
gate.ahram.org.eg/daily/News/205…قضايا-واراء/هذه-الحرب-فى-أسبوعها-الخامس-حسابات-الخسارة-والمكسب.aspx
العربية
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Amos Hochstein praised the UAE’s defence and said its strategic investments have helped stabilise global energy markets during the conflict
@imimediagroup @_HadleyGamble
English
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This article reads less like analysis and more like a dramatized memoir dressed up in policy language. The author spent two years in Qatar, was unsettled by a security incident, and has now produced a geopolitical thesis based, in part, on the mood of WhatsApp groups.
Gulf states were never built on an illusion of absolute immunity. To suggest that a single escalation event suddenly “ended the exception” is analytically lazy. By that logic, London ceased to be a financial center after IRA attacks, and New York lost its relevance after 9/11. Neither happened, and for good reason. The author confuses personal anxiety with structural collapse.
The argument that US security partnerships have transformed from deterrents into “magnets” for attack is equally superficial, and it collapses the moment you apply basic analysis to it. The author’s “neutrality paradox” does not survive contact with the actual law of neutrality. Hosting a foreign military installation under a bilateral defense agreement does not make a state a co-belligerent under international law. That determination requires active participation in hostilities, a threshold none of the GCC states has crossed. Beyond the legal error, the logic also fails. Military infrastructure under collective defense arrangements raises the cost of aggression, it does not invite it. The limited and contained nature of recent incidents demonstrates precisely the opposite of what the author claims: air defenses engaged, escalation was controlled, and state continuity was preserved. That is not system failure. That is system performance.
On the economic side, the piece collapses entirely under scrutiny. It throws around figures with theatrical confidence: $20 billion in LNG losses, 80,000 hotel cancellations, structural implosion of Qatar’s energy output, all without a single sourced reference or verified dataset. This is not how serious economic analysis is conducted. Gulf economies are among the most capitalized, liquid, and shock-resistant systems globally, backed by sovereign wealth funds measured in trillions. Short-term volatility in tourism or logistics during a geopolitical flare-up is expected and historically reversible. The claim that the “reliability premium” has been permanently lost is supported by no market behavior, no capital flight data, and no investment trend analysis. It is speculation dressed as fact.
The most inflated claim is the so-called “collapse of the expatriate social contract.” This is frankly detached from reality. The Gulf expatriate model is not a fragile psychological bargain that evaporates the moment professionals feel nervous. It is an economic ecosystem driven by opportunity, regulatory stability, and income differentials that do not disappear because of a transient security event. Professionals discuss exit strategies in WhatsApp groups during any crisis, anywhere in the world. That is human nature, not an indicator of economic collapse. The same cities the author now describes as “glass liabilities” are among the most advanced in infrastructure resilience and crisis response in the entire region.
The Gulf is not a mirage. It is one of the most institutionally managed regions on earth, run by governments that have navigated oil shocks, a GCC blockade, a global pandemic, and repeated regional conflicts without structural breakdown. What we are watching is not a model in collapse. It is a model doing exactly what it was built to do. The only thing that has genuinely expired here is the author’s sense of personal comfort, and that, with respect, is not a geopolitical event worth a thousand words. The mirage, it turns out, was the analysis.
Dr. Dalia Ghanem د.دالية غانم 🍉@DaliaZinaGhanem
The era of the "Gulf Exception" is over. You cannot be a global lifestyle hub and a primary military target simultaneously. The neutrality paradox has reached its breaking point. The gilded mirage in the #GCC is over. #IranWar. My latest for @gmfus gmfus.org/news/end-gulfs…
English
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The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 52.9 in March from 55.0 in February, the lowest level since July 2025, although still in growth territory.
reuters.com/world/middle-e…
English
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