RacetotheWH

Donald Trump’s approval rating is falling again, after a brief respite following the start of the Iran war. Today, it dropped to a second-term low of 39.4%.

After two new polls in the Michigan Senate race, we now have McMorrow leading Hailey Stevens by 24.8% to 22.7% in our polling average, with Abdul El-Sayed right on their heels at 21.5%. Link -> racetothewh.com/senate/michiga…

Pete Buttigieg almost won New Hampshire in 2020 - and voters seem to like him even more now. He has led all five 2028 New Hampshire primary polls.

EXCLUSIVE: An internal @RacetotheWH polling average shows nobody likes Stephen Miller. The toxic White House aide ranks dead last on a 27-name list of U.S. political figures. Reporting by me: migrantinsider.com/p/nobody-likes…

A few weeks ago when I started the forecast, Stratton looked like she was going to finish well behind. She started it trailing Raja by 13% - now it's just 2.9%. This is the type of fast changing race where an incumbent can surge beyond what the polls and forecast can capture.

Final Prediction for the Illinois Senate Race: Stratton is surging in the final days of the election - but Krishnamoorthi is still a slight favorite. Projected Vote: Raja K. 38.4%, Stratton 35.5%, Kelly 18.0% Chance to Win: Raja K. 59.4%, Stratton 40.3%, Kelly 0.3%

Today I built a new primary polling page for the California Governor race at RacetotheWH, which includes a special average showing who is leading with voters by party, race and region. I think you'll enjoy it! racetothewh.com/governor/calif…

This is kind of exciting - my projection for the Democratic primary was pretty close to perfect with 98% of the vote in. Vote Share: Talarico 52.4%, Crocket 46.2% Projection: Talarico 52.3%, Crockett 46.6%

The early data we have for him provides only more signs of a strong Cooper performance. He's leading the polling by 15 (!) percent - a number that's unlikely to be sustained, but boy he has room to lose and still win. He's also crushing the fundraising.

Full steam ahead for Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley in the North Carolina Senate Race. I am very high on Cooper's chances - who I believe is the best performing politician in NC in 25 years. Five times he's run statewide during a presidential election - and he won every time.

My Prediction for the TX GOP Senate Primary, after simulating it 2,000 times: 1. Ken Paxton 39.4% 2. John Cornyn 38.0% 3. Wesley Hunt 18.0% 4. Anna Bender 1.2% 5. Sara Canady 1.0% Other: 2.4%

Here's my final projection for the Texas Democratic Primary. Projection: Talarico 52.3%, Crockett 46.6%, Chance to Win: Talarico 62.4%, Crocket 30.6% Goes to a Runoff: 7.1% Chance

This puts another stretch target on the map for Democrats, especially if they have an outstanding cycle. Western Montana district has been slowly moving in their direction. Dems chance of flipping it bump up from 14% to 26%.

Top Five Biggest Gainers in the 2028 Primary Polling Since Dec 1st 1. Mark Kelly (+4.5%) 2. AOC (+2.9%) 3. Kamala Harris (+2.5%) 4. JB Pritzker (+1.7%) 5. Jon Ossoff (+1.2%)

James Talarico has retaken the lead in the Senate Primary polling average. James Talarico 46.6% Jasmine Crockett 43.9% Ahmad Hassan 0.3%

In Texas, polls show most Democratic voters really like both James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett. It's a very different story on Twitter!

Mark Kelly is rocketing into contention for the 2028 Presidential Primary. He's now in fifth place in the national polling, and a new poll today showed him at 10% in New Hampshire.

I built a Senate Primary forecast, and James Talarico has a narrow edge over Jasmine Crockett - projected to win 50.4% to 49.6%.

Give me a Senate, Governor or House race, and I'll give you a prediction!

I think the Iowa Senate race is going to be competitive, and the Governor race is an outright Toss Up. No state in the nation has been hit harder by tariffs than Iowa.