Garol Rade

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Garol Rade

Garol Rade

@RadeGarol

Enchanted absurdity.

Katılım Şubat 2024
38 Takip Edilen23 Takipçiler
Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
Very true. Knowing user latent user intent is a hard problem. Some thoughts: I think a lot of it may have to do with decomposing a users explicit intent. Similar to a query fan out. For example if the user queries ‘best backpack for Portland in May”, a query fan out to identify latent intents could be several things: portland May weather, waterproof travel backpack, best laptop for walking, carry on backpack for 5 day trip, rainy city travel gear, and so on. Identifying latent intents becomes a research plan with parallel retrieval.
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signüll
signüll@signulll·
building ambient software is one of the most difficult problems on the planet. the dominant paradigm for product dev has always been relatively straight forward, e.g. user expresses intent & system executes. it’s readable, debuggable, & falsifiable. ambient fundamentally inverts this contract because the system has to infer intent from context the user never explicitly surfaced, & be right often enough that the inference itself feels like a feature rather than an intrusion. traditional pm/eng optimizes for “did the user accomplish the thing they asked.” ambient optimizes for “did we model the user’s latent state well enough that they didn’t have to ask.” the former rewards explicitness, instrumentation, & funnels. the latter rewards a kind of editorial restraint that looks like doing less. this is why there have been very few if any companies that have ever been remotely successful here.
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@garrytan Two things: You are a seer. You have a yuge yuge heart.
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@andrewchen That’s framing the future based on today’s definitions. You are actually alluding to a brand new discipline and role.
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andrew chen
andrew chen@andrewchen·
bullish on the PM role quietly becoming the most important role in tech again when anyone can build, the person who decides WHAT to build becomes the bottleneck
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@signulll Thats the duality of nature. Light and dark, cold and hot, black and white, rich and poor. Nature reveals itself through two extremes and a gradient between them. Heroes and villains are no different.
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signüll
signüll@signulll·
ppl so often forget that every great hero needs a villain.
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@garrytan Can you make a coherent case for how taxing the very rich will ruin California’s economy? Otherwise, it sounds less like an argument and more like fearmongering in defense of the wealthiest Americans and their fortunes. That’s not exactly a principled stance.
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Garry Tan
Garry Tan@garrytan·
How to drive the billionaires out and ruin the California tax base in one fell swoop: propose asset seizure measures Make it make sense! Middle class taxpayers will take on all the billions in tax revenue lost
Blake Byers@byersblake

How the 5% California wealth tax is a 67% wealth tax for Sergey Brin: >Owns 3% of GOOG. >Holds 25.3% of voting rights >Wealth tax is assessed as the greater of his ownership or voting rights. So his tax is 5% * his 25.3% voting ownership = 1.27% of the value of GOOG. >1.27% taxes / 3% ownership looks like a 42.2% wealth tax, but that's not quite right. >He has to pay the wealth tax with after-tax cash proceeds. So he needs to sell enough stock to cover 37.1% in taxes first (23.8% federal and 13.3% state). >His gross stock sale has to be 2.01% of GOOG to cover the wealth tax + federal and state taxes. >His wealth tax bill is thus 67% of his net worth (2.01%/3%) >This for 2026. There are proposals being drafted for a 2028 wealth tax. (I understand that some people see this as a feature)

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˗ˏˋ rogie ˎˊ˗
˗ˏˋ rogie ˎˊ˗@rogie·
I think at some rate product designers lost the plot. We were meant to be inventors, thinkers, and a bridge between humans and the message or invention. We aren’t meant to merely declutter, simplify, or make things pretty. Designers are meant to make the very thing humans will be working with, in every imaginable way possible. We are not rectangle builders, we are not pixel pushers, we are inventors and builders pushing to communicate to humans or let humans communicate to our inventions.
joshpuckett@joshpuckett

I think this is worth some nuance. In recent history, many companies have employed 'product designers' whose primary activity and output has been the creation of software interface facsimiles, e.g. mockups in a drawing tool like Figma. Those making mockups have of course been doing more than just that, to varying extents leading or more commonly participating in the process of deciding what to build and why. But there was value in that tangible output itself. I think @gokulr is directionally correct that the role of someone whose primary output is the creating of an interface mockup is quickly disappearing. But the role of someone who figures out what needs to exist, why, how it should work, how it should should be positioned, differentiated and made memorable has never been more in demand. I speak with founders on a near weekly basis (many of them in Gokul's own portfolio) desperate for this kind of person. His conclusions though I agree with almost entirely: there will always be an opportunity to specialize in the creation of visual interfaces, but more broadly most product designers who want to be employees (totally fine) should take on more responsibilities that have historically been done by PMs or Engineers, to varying degrees. From my POV, this is just what a product designer is and what we should have been doing the whole time, but that's another post.

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Nick
Nick@nickcammarata·
the reason bad days feel heavy and the best day of your life felt light as a feather is because nothingness isn’t neutral it’s spectacular, and when you felt better you were closer to nothing, closer to dissolving completely
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@sama The truth is this: you don’t know. No one knows. We are all hoping for the best with a finger to the wind.
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Sam Altman
Sam Altman@sama·
i think a lot of people are going to be busier (and hopefully more fulfilled) than ever, and jobs doomerism is likely long-term wrong. though of course there will be disruption/significant transition as we switch to new jobs, the jobs of the future may look v different, etc.
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Sam Altman
Sam Altman@sama·
we want to build tools to augment and elevate people, not entities to replace them.
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Ben South
Ben South@bnj·
The No Engineer will be replaced by the No Designer/PM
Jonathan Ross@JonathanRoss321

For 50 years, software engineering ran on code rationing. Writing code was expensive, so we rationed it carefully through roadmaps, RFCs, prioritization meetings, and scope reviews. This created a role: the No Engineer. No, that won't scale. No, we don't have bandwidth. No, that's out of scope. No, we need a design doc first. The No Engineer was valuable for 50 years. Every "no" saved real money. Their judgment was the rationing system. LLMs will be the end of code rationing. Code is cheap now. And while the No Engineer is explaining why something can't be done, the Yes Engineer has already shipped three versions of it. If you're a Yes Engineer, the next decade is yours.

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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@satyanadella AI product launches from Microsoft need a slogan. How about: “Bolted on, not reimagined.”
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Satya Nadella
Satya Nadella@satyanadella·
Agent Mode is here in Outlook! Copilot can now help run your inbox and calendar, triaging emails, rescheduling meetings, and helping you stay on top of what matters most.
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@signulll I see a lot of headwinds for Skye. The most likely outcome? It gets usurped by the next wrapper in the stack. The sure is an interesting journey.
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signüll
signüll@signulll·
as a startup it's much much much better to say you're reinventing a piece of real estate (e.g. the home screen) than to say you're building an agent that lives in your texts. the former is spatial. ppl can picture a new house on a familiar plot. the latter forces them to construct a mental model from scratch which is a much higher cognitive load, & much worse pitch. even worse, once you establish a mental model, you cannot *go back*. this is like trying to rebuild the foundation of a sky scraper while ppl are living there. this is one of the keys to @skye. digital real estate is increasingly more valuable than primetime manhattan, & vastly harder to create from scratch (ask anyone trying to ship a new device). you must establish a clear foundational layer, & then slowly but surely build your floors. every floor you build makes the building taller, & more visible (assuming it's coherent). & every "floor" you build must be in service of a singular message & a singular story. every week, i will post about a new "floor" in our building.
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@nummanali Why the f*** Like as if we aren’t already spending enough time on our phones.
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Numman Ali
Numman Ali@nummanali·
How to install Cursor on iOS The cloud agent is remarkable - has its own computer - takes screenshots / videos - use variety of models - full diff view options - voice input and image input - full automations 24/7 SWE in your pocket
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Ian Bach ☯︎
Ian Bach ☯︎@Ian8ach·
funny how everyone thinks everyone else’s discipline is vulnerable but not their own
Gokul Rajaram@gokulr

DESIGN: THE FIRST AI CASUALTY I'm increasingly sure that 2026 signals the end of product design as a full-fledged stand-alone function within companies. If so, it will be the first role / function to be eliminated by AI on a go-forward basis. Instead of hiring FT designers, startups are hiring / will hire design consultants to create a design system that the founder likes (this takes a few weeks max). Once the design system is finalized, PM/Eng feed it into their AI tool of choice to generate prototypes. The design system is refreshed annually by the same consultant. Larger companies will likely not backfill design roles and will do some targeted attrition to reduce the design department to 20% the size it is today. If you're a designer, I think you have two choices: 1. Become an entrepreneur: Start a design agency and become the go-to resource for design systems for startups and even larger companies. This can be a good recurring revenue business. 2. Become a builder: Add PM/Eng responsibilities to become a product builder. Would suggest you embrace this proactively vs waiting for the other shoe to drop. I'm really sorry about this - some of my best friends and the people I admire most and have learnt the most from are designers - but it seems inevitable.

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Palmer Luckey
Palmer Luckey@PalmerLuckey·
Gemini 2025:
Palmer Luckey tweet media
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
@nikunj Hmm. No one is denying any of this. What is changing is that far more people can now design. Way more. If you have the eye, the judgment and a point of view, the ability to create polished deliverables is no longer the constraint. That dramatically redefines who can design.
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
If you have innate taste, you can use these tools to create compelling visuals and layouts. There will still be snobbish designers holding out, protect their sacred turfs. All of us will have to move up the funnel, two or three layers of abstraction higher. And even that will eventually get absorbed into the guts of ai models. It’s going to be interesting watching ivory towers get burned down.
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nil
nil@dhvanil·
my hot take is that "taste is a uniquely human thing" is cope. one simple example: i've noticed that friends of mine who are not designers at all (for example, backend / infra people) were making projects with ai 2 years ago that looked obviously sloppy. now the same people are shipping things that look… pretty polished. probably good enough that a junior designer could pass it off as their own work. and when i ask them what changed -- did you learn some design fundamentals? did your 'visual taste' improve? are you better at noticing bad spacing / typography / color hues? most of the time the answer is just: the tools got better. the models got better. i can only judge this for visual design / frontend because that’s where i feel like i have some taste. but i’m pretty sure the same thing is happening in copywriting, backend architecture, research ideas, product taste, etc. yes, prompting matters. yes, having a good taste yourself still matters. but the median 'taste' of an ai model in 2023 and the median taste of an ai model in 2026 are very different. there is a waterline of taste and it is rising very fast. sloppification of the internet was a temporary phase.
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
Hmm. This isn’t encouraging. This looks like an experience that is trying to insert itself between you and all your information. And the wrapper I’m seeing isn’t compelling. I’d want to just take this wrapper off if it isn’t exactly what I want to see. It’s almost got to read my mind. Very hard to get this right.
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signüll
signüll@signulll·
this is my current @skye home screen as i’m heading to bed. the feed ranking is getting incredible & we are expanding our agents capabilities rapidly. the future is agents simply telling you what you need to know when you need to know it with precision & action directly on a screen you glance at. going back to a screen full of apps feels like traveling back in time.
signüll tweet media
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Garol Rade
Garol Rade@RadeGarol·
It’s a feeding frenzy. The models will keep improving and everyone will get exhausted chasing every shiny new release. Most people in tech and adjacent fields are still grappling with what it means when major advances happen every six months instead of every five years. We haven’t developed the habits, institutions, or emotional bandwidth to live in a world transforming at this pace. There will be burnout and more people will choose to slow down and actually live their lives rather than chase something that never stops morphing. That or dystopia.
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Geoffrey Litt
Geoffrey Litt@geoffreylitt·
Pretty sure the only way to keep up with all the new AI tools is to not have a job
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hari raghavan
hari raghavan@haridigresses·
@RadeGarol @gokulr As in, the way I'm describing is how corporations work in a single-function way? Or the way I write is corporate-speak?
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Gokul Rajaram
Gokul Rajaram@gokulr·
DESIGN: THE FIRST AI CASUALTY I'm increasingly sure that 2026 signals the end of product design as a full-fledged stand-alone function within companies. If so, it will be the first role / function to be eliminated by AI on a go-forward basis. Instead of hiring FT designers, startups are hiring / will hire design consultants to create a design system that the founder likes (this takes a few weeks max). Once the design system is finalized, PM/Eng feed it into their AI tool of choice to generate prototypes. The design system is refreshed annually by the same consultant. Larger companies will likely not backfill design roles and will do some targeted attrition to reduce the design department to 20% the size it is today. If you're a designer, I think you have two choices: 1. Become an entrepreneur: Start a design agency and become the go-to resource for design systems for startups and even larger companies. This can be a good recurring revenue business. 2. Become a builder: Add PM/Eng responsibilities to become a product builder. Would suggest you embrace this proactively vs waiting for the other shoe to drop. I'm really sorry about this - some of my best friends and the people I admire most and have learnt the most from are designers - but it seems inevitable.
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Keşfet

@garrytan @andrewchen @signulll @rogie @danshipper @nickcammarata @sama @bnj