RandallCornett

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RandallCornett

RandallCornett

@RandallCornett

I like markets. Media buying. Chargers football.

Las Vegas Katılım Nisan 2008
314 Takip Edilen16.9K Takipçiler
RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
Section ‌6.03, ‌Fundamental ‌Changes. Here’s the big “don’t get cute with a merger” clause. The borrower(AMC) and the company aren’t allowed to merge, consolidate, or amalgamate with anyone, and they also can’t have someone else fold into them, unless the deal fits one of the specific carve outs. The line that does the heavy lifting is basically, “will not, merge into or consolidate or amalgamate with any other Person,” and then it throws in a narrow escape hatch....if the Borrower(AMC) merges at all, it has to be the one left standing, meaning the Borrower(AMC) must be the continuing or surviving Person. Section 7.01(p) plus the “Change in Control” definition. Even if someone tried to thread the needle and sidestep the merger rule above, there’s a second tripwire waiting. The agreement treats “a Change in Control shall occur” as an Event of Default. And “Change in Control” is written broadly enough to catch the obvious workarounds, like AMC losing control, the Company stopping being a wholly owned subsidiary of Muvico/AMC/Odeon.... or the borrower(AMC) no longer being wholly owned by the Company.
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Tony Denaro
Tony Denaro@Tony_Denaro·
@wolf_of_ape_st Just curious, what about the existence of exhibit 10.1 in Fridays 8-K filing failed to meet your expectations?
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Nacci_Dirac_Pascal ⭕️
Nacci_Dirac_Pascal ⭕️@wolf_of_ape_st·
For those sitting in the cheap seats $AMC What's Missing: We’re waiting for the filing that includes Exhibit 10.1. This is the document where the legal definition of a "Successor Entity" is locked in (if there is one)
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Саша
Саша@sasasokas·
We’ve added a lot of people into our casino Telegram in 2026 and we’ve put everything in one place for you to access The channel is a free, ungated drop of what’s actually working on Meta right now creatives PWA funnels scaling setups it covers the full picture what changed what works now how top buyers are actually scaling Meta’s algorithm changed everything targeting isn’t the edge anymore creatives are the buyers pulling away right now aren’t just producing more ads they’re running a system research → angle → creative → funnel → scale everything in the channel is built to help you do that retweet this post and comment “CASINO” and we’ll add you to the channel
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Patrick Werner
Patrick Werner@patwerX·
This is wrong. “Just run CPA” is exactly what broke affiliates say. Every experienced affiliate manager knows one thing: If you're asking for CPA only -> your traffic is trash. Good traffic converts long term. Good traffic wants rev share. The moment you tell an operator “just give me CPA” you've told them everything they need to know about the quality of your users. CPA is for affiliates who don't believe in their own traffic. Period.
Theme@TkTheme

@patwerX Yeah just run cpa i do t trust those russian guys

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Wisdom
Wisdom@Wisdom_HQ·
Who walks out?
Wisdom tweet media
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ACTIONMAN
ACTIONMAN@Ac7ionMann·
HUGE STREAM LIVE ALL NIGHT! ANYONE THAT WANTS TO HANG OUT COME FIND US IN MIAMI Kick.com/ac7ionman
ACTIONMAN tweet media
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RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
When I step back and look at the last five years as a whole, something becomes very clear. 2020: debt exchanges. Second lien / first lien intercreditor wrestling. Survival mode. 2021: meme squeeze. Massive ATM equity. Billions raised. Share count explodes. 2022: APE units created because authorized shares were maxed. More equity. More dilution. 2023–2025: drop-down financings, convert exchanges, Muvico structure, intercreditor fights, refinancing disputes, lawsuits with first-lien holders. Warrants extended. Maturities kicked out. Every time things got tight (liquidity, maturity walls, litigation).....the solution followed the same pattern- Get breathing room. Extend time. Raise equity when possible. Kick the can. Fast forward to February 2026. What do we see? Another $150M ATM. A Goldman prepaid variable forward. An 8-K modifying Muvico notes to allow additional refinancing flexibility. Different tools. Same toolbox. We know NTBV is still deeply negative. We know, from AMC’s own dilution table, that new buyers are assuming north of $8 per share in dilution. That isn’t a short thesis. It’s in the prospectus. So the real question isn’t “Is AMC going bankrupt tomorrow?” The real question is: Has the model changed? Is the business now producing consistent free cash flow sufficient to service debt without issuing equity? Because if the answer is no — and the filings suggest that it is — then equity remains the pressure valve. Rallies become funding windows. That’s not collapse (they're fighting tooth and nail to avoid it) That’s equity being used to extend runway. What happened from 2020–2025 wasn’t a one-off anomaly. It was a roadmap. And February 2026 looks like the same roadmap continuing. Not hyperbolic. Not emotional. Just pattern recognition.
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RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
Look, ‌spending ‌isn't ‌some villain here. To expand, you have to pour money in... no way around it. Not whether they're shelling out cash at all, that's not the real issue. What backs up all that outflow, though? Say growth investments come straight from day to day cash earnings, and you've got solid progress on your hands. But if ramping up plus handling debts keeps demanding fresh stock sales, well... the picture shifts. Nothing wrong at heart with dumping funds into expansion. Still, with real equity in the red and the firm leaning on quick hit share offerings or those fancy stock tied arrangements, it signals the whole setup depends on outside money injections. Doesn't scream wild risk taking, no. Just shows operations aren't yet carrying their own weight for both pushing forward and settling dues. There you have the key split. Once those routine inflows steadily handle interest payments, equipment buys, loan paydowns, all sans dipping into stock pools... dilution turns from "must do" to maybe. Mark that as the big threshold.
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RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
I ‌get ‌where ‌you're coming from. And no, I'm not brushing off how wild 2020 through 2022 got... Covid lockdowns slammed everything, that 2021 shelf vote flopped, then came the APE dodge, plus those Hollywood strikes. Real messes, all of them. Still, narratives and capital setups differ in one big way, a homestretch means ditching equity for funding altogether. But look at JUST THIS MONTH... another $150M ATM pops up, paired with a structured forward from Goldman, and an 8-K that loosens refinancing rules. If the intense funding days were really behind us, equity sales wouldn't linger in the strategy. That doesn't rule out a comeback for the company, just shows it hasn't hit that independent funding spot yet. Sentiment isn't the turning point. What matters....steady free cash flow that handles interest, capex, debt payments, all without dipping into stock markets. Once that kicks in... yeah, I'll label it the homestretch myself. For now, those filings keep pointing to the old financing approach dragging on.
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🦍-💩-CRAY-Z (matt wertz) 🇺🇸
@RandallCornett @arizonacardslo1 It’s a necessary to get to where we are going which after 6 years 5 years since ‘21 we are at the homestretch if it wasn’t for the ‘21 shelf vote down or the Ape equity or the music move or the strikes we’d already be past all this!!!
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RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
You actually just made my point for me. Sure, I see eye to eye on some of that. Distressed lenders do shield their lien risks, no doubt... that's what they sign up for. And yeah, without restructuring plus fresh equity, AMC probably files for bankruptcy. Hits right at what I'm saying. The firm hung on because shareholders soaked up the hits, pumping in funds to keep things afloat. Doesn't make the approach flawed, might've dodged a total loss even. Yet it sure doesn't shield stock from more watering down ahead. In distressed debt plays, priority goes to creditor worth. Equity ranks lower... so spotting another ATM raise, or a forward deal in 2026... signals the setup still counts on shares to patch gaps. No jab intended. Just how the pecking order works. True turning point comes when operations cover debt and investments straight from steady cash flows, no equity crutches. Reach that, and dilution fades out. Till then... shares stay the release for pressure.
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RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
Just ‌because ‌creditors ‌back a deal, that doesn't mean the equity holds real value. Creditors always come first in line for payment...they snag collateral, strict rules, steeper rates, top spot in the lineup. Equity holders scrape by on scraps. When a lender nods to refinance or push out deadlines, it signals they figure the company can hang on long enough to safeguard their stake, not that they see the common shares as a bargain. Totally separate bets on risk. Plenty of these setups pile on extra interest bites, fees, more assets locked in, room for the firm to pump out new shares... all that shields the lenders. Shareholders? Not so much... At bottom the core puzzle stays put. Does AMC crank out steady spare cash to handle debts without watering down shares? Sure, then stock owners win out down the road. No? Stock keeps soaking up the hits. Lenders betting on their payout..
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RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
I'm ‌not ‌brushing ‌off those gains. Sure, AMC grabbed more of the market, cut down risks on debts coming due soon, pushed obligations way out to 2029, trimmed yearly payments compared to the worst times, and branched out income sources past just ticket sales.. all that stuff holds up. Still, nothing there shifts the big underlying puzzle... can the company now generate steady free cash flow, enough to handle its whole debt load without dipping into stock sales? That's the real pivot, after all, you might boost how things run day to day yet keep leaning on watering down shares, and yeah both sides coexist just fine. What I wrote doesn't knock the steps forward in operations, no, it highlights how the funding setup, evident once more now in February, keeps folding in at-the-market stock dumps... structured deals tied to equity, plus ongoing tweaks for refinancing wiggle room. Suppose free cash flow took care of debt payments and investments completely; then no need for that stock selling tool at all. Not picking and choosing here. The real query skips "Did AMC get better?" It did. Instead, "Did it get good enough to quit treating stock like an escape hatch?" Once that flips to yes, count me in on calling it out, but so far the documents lay out the old routine rolling on.
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🦍-💩-CRAY-Z (matt wertz) 🇺🇸
@arizonacardslo1 @RandallCornett Selective data points that skip all the benefits made torward and beyond recovery including market share capture balance debt premium reductions 50% lover service payments over that period and cap expenditures that expanded our revenue sources beyond the box office revenues! Why?
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RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
It's gone. I have one more left if you want it, shoot me a dm.
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RandallCornett
RandallCornett@RandallCornett·
Here's a code for Seedance 2.0 via chatcut.io if anyone has been waiting to play with it. Here is the invite code: L44W2Y
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