Un-common sense

2.8K posts

Un-common sense

Un-common sense

@Random_Gyan

Business Owner ; Ex - BofA Banker ; IIM Calcutta ('07Batch) Passionate about Investing; Student of History

Kolkata, India Katılım Ağustos 2013
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
1/N Li Lu's is only person Munger trusts with his money besides Buffett. He has a simple investment checklist Is that a good business? Is that Cheap? Who is running it? What did I miss? Using this lens, l will look at #Apar Industries
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
@shareswalla My friend you will have insufficient data. Bengal is not UP or Bihar. In rural Bengal this has been happening for over 30 yrs. It's very hard to undo that culture. My sense it will become milder but persist As Munger said "Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome"
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
This is exactly why everyone needs to study statistics incl Drs. It's long my belief that statistics in 11-12 is much more valuable in life vis-a-vis maths. Applications of AM,GM, sampling theory, probability, distributions, bayes theorem is 100x more in life than calculus.
Math Files@Math_files

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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
@pritishposwal These are unofficial groups created by some alumni to share common interest whatsapp groups. There are groups on Health, AI, Sensex, books, movies and what not. Ask around you will be able to get into some of them based on your interests.
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Pritish Poswal
Pritish Poswal@pritishposwal·
@Random_Gyan Thanks, Will the alumni secretary share the links to these groups or is there someone else to contact to?
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
There are lots of IIMC special interest groups including IIMC jobs and entrepreneurship. I suggest you join them. Post your CV and seek help. Some high profile startup founders are present in these groups beside several very well connected senior alumni. All the best
Pritish Poswal@pritishposwal

Just a post to explain how competitive it is at top IIMs for placements. My profile was 9/9/8 with BTech in CS from IIIT Delhi+fresher. 2 SDE Interns - Jio& a start-up, decent projects and avg ECA. Meanwhile I got 0 shortlists for consulting at IIM C in SIP not even from Big 4.

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Pritish Poswal
Pritish Poswal@pritishposwal·
@Random_Gyan I got a job in general management domain in final placements. I wrote it in the comments too.
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ranga ravindranath
ranga ravindranath@rangaravindrana·
@Random_Gyan Waiting for the other names in the series, As always thank you for your analysis 😀
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
Bengal has a long history of politics getting deep rooted in every aspect of life. Left created it. TMC adopted it. I fear that the BJP will also adopt it because it allows it to win elections for a long long time. I hope they don't but history and incentives suggest otherwise.
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
What a wonderful story to start my Sunday! I am a sucker for great teaching/teacher stories. Somewhere deep inside it resonates so much. The love for teaching, especially difficult topics is one of the under appreciated but noble and greatly satisfying things to do.
Ihtesham Ali@ihtesham2005

An MIT professor taught the same math course for 62 years, and the day he retired, students from every country on earth showed up online to watch him give his final lecture. I opened the playlist at 2am and ended up watching three of them back to back. His name is Gilbert Strang. The course is MIT 18.06 Linear Algebra. Every machine learning engineer, every data scientist, every quant, every self-taught programmer who actually understands how AI works learned the math from this one man. Most of them never set foot on MIT's campus. They just opened a free playlist on YouTube and let him teach. Here's the story almost nobody tells you. Strang joined the MIT math faculty in 1962. He retired in 2023. That is 61 years of standing at the same chalkboard teaching the same subject to 18-year-olds. The interesting part is what he did when MIT launched OpenCourseWare in 2002. Most professors were skeptical. They worried that putting their lectures online would make their classrooms irrelevant. Strang did not hesitate. He said his life's mission was to open mathematics to students everywhere. He filmed every lecture and gave it away. The decision quietly changed how the world learns math. For decades linear algebra was taught the wrong way. Professors started with abstract vector spaces and proofs about field axioms. Students drowned in the abstraction. Most never recovered. They walked out believing they were bad at math when they had simply been taught in an order that nobody's brain is built to absorb. Strang inverted the entire curriculum. He started with matrix multiplication. Something you can write down on paper. Something you can compute by hand. Something you can see. Then he showed his students that everything else in linear algebra eigenvectors, singular value decomposition, orthogonality, the four fundamental subspaces was just a different lens for understanding what the matrix was actually doing under the hood. His rule was strict. If a student could not explain a concept using a concrete 3 by 3 example, that student did not actually understand the concept yet. The abstraction was supposed to come last, not first. The intuition was the foundation. The proofs were just confirmation that the intuition was correct. The second thing Strang changed was the classroom itself. He said please and thank you to his students. Every single lecture. He paused mid-derivation to ask "am I OK?" to check if anyone was lost. He never used the word "obviously" or "trivially" because he knew exactly what those words do to a student who is one step behind. He treated 19-year-olds learning math for the first time the way he treated his own colleagues. With patience. With respect. With the assumption that they belonged in the room. For 62 years. The result is something that has never happened in the history of education. A single math professor became the default teacher of his subject for the entire planet. Universities in India, China, Brazil, Nigeria, every country with a computer science department, started telling their own students to just watch Strang's lectures. The University of Illinois revised its linear algebra course to do almost no in-person lecturing. The reason was honest. The professor said they could not compete with the videos. His final lecture was in May 2023. The auditorium was packed with students who had never met him before. He walked to the chalkboard, taught for an hour, and at the end the entire room stood and applauded. He looked confused for a moment, like he genuinely did not understand why they were cheering. Then he smiled and waved them off and walked out. His written comment under the YouTube video of that final lecture was four sentences long. He said teaching had been a wonderful life. He said he was grateful to everyone who saw the importance of linear algebra. He said the movement of teaching it well would continue because it was right. That was it. No book promotion. No farewell speech. No legacy management. The man whose teaching is the foundation of modern AI just thanked the audience and went home. 20 million views. Zero ego. The entire engine of the AI revolution sits on top of math that millions of people learned for free from one quiet professor in Cambridge. The course is still on MIT OpenCourseWare. Every lecture, every problem set, every exam, every solution. Free. The most important math course of the 21st century is sitting one click away from you. Most people will never open it.

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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
Simple intuitive understanding which is obvious is 1.5 x 0.6 = 0.9. so you loose 10% on a geometric basis after 2 turns. But if you do 100 small bets of equal value 50 will go up by 50% and 50 will go down by 40% so you make 105. The entire startup investment is based on this.
Ole Peters@ole_b_peters

In the infamous coin toss, the individual loses while the collective gains. Forget that this is often illustrated with dollars. The point is: the act is self-destructive for the individual, yet beneficial for the collective. It's a nucleation problem: one alone cannot do it, but a few individuals sticking together can access the collective good. #ErgodicityEconomics

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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
World over gold over a very long term has given inflation + 1-2% whereas equity is inflation+ 4-6% (India and US ) on the higher side. That's the base rate of investing. Gold has diversification benefits but this is a time to slowly lighten up on them rather than add a lot IMHO
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
@parshav_gandhi Industry my dear friend. Industry is growing at 15% CAGR. Greenpanel didn't because of two reasons Cheap imports They in their wisdom choose not to participate in the price war that ensued because of cheap imports and suddenly capacity surge. Industry demand continued to grow
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Parshav. Gandhi
Parshav. Gandhi@parshav_gandhi·
@Random_Gyan Why do you think MDF volumes will keep growing at 15% when it literally hasn't even crossed FY23 volumes yet?
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
Potential 2x in 3yrs-Wk3 It is the largest player in an industry where volumes grew at 15% p.a. over last 10yrs and should continue to grow 15% over the next 10yrs Essentially a structural story at a cyclical low. Stock is down ~66% from ATH. Cycle is now changing Thread👇
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
Woodrow Wilson's famous test that if something is accountable to Newton or Darwin. Markets accounts to Darwin. This might work for early adopters even if this works as claimed. And then it will stop working because markets are complex adaptive systems.
Nav Toor@heynavtoor

🚨 Someone built an AI that reads candlestick charts the way GPT reads English. Trained on 12 billion records from 45 exchanges. Outperforms every model by 93%. Live BTC demo. Free. It's called Kronos. The first open source foundation model built for financial markets. Not a general AI repurposed for finance. An AI that speaks the native language of candlestick patterns. Every other model treats financial data like weather data. Kronos treats financial data like financial data. Here's what it does: → Price forecasting. Feed it candlesticks. It predicts where price goes next. → Volatility prediction. Forecasts how volatile an asset will be before it happens. → Zero-shot. No fine-tuning. Works on any asset, any market, any timeframe. → 45 exchanges. Binance, NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE, and 41 more. → 4 model sizes. 4M params runs on a laptop. 499M for max accuracy. → Live demo running right now. BTC/USDT. 24-hour forecast. Updated hourly. Here's the wildest part: → 93% more accurate than the leading time series model → 87% more accurate than the best non-pretrained baseline → All zero-shot. No fine-tuning. Out of the box. Hedge funds spend millions on proprietary models. Bloomberg Terminal costs $24,000/year. This runs on your laptop. Few lines of Python. Free. Built at Tsinghua University. Accepted at AAAI 2026. Models on Hugging Face. 11.6K GitHub stars. 2.4K forks. MIT License. 100% Open Source.

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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
Key risk - Cheap imports Key Monitorable - New Supply General disclaimer - This analysis may be prone to both errors of omission and commission. You should assume that I am invested in it and my views are positively biased
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Un-common sense
Un-common sense@Random_Gyan·
FY26 MDF Vol 5L CBM; Capacity is 8.91L. With negligible imports and ~15% industry growth it should be able to 7L CBM by FY29. Assuming 3-5% p.a. growth in prices and OP leverage FY29 Rev 2k- 2.2k Crs; 15-17% EBITDA margin and 15x EV/EBITDA gets us 4.5-5.5k Mkt cap at 0 debt
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