Rangoon87

@TwinTurboCe1ica Spec end is terrible. Its either horribly overpriced tech or undervalued resources with horrible sentiment. I suspect, as with prior cycles, there will be no rebound in spec sector until after the major indices have a sell-off/correction. Sit and wait for now...

Is it just me or has the ASX now gone full retard… #NeverGoFullRetard

@boy1_HC interesting story here. $1.4b invested to date in a white elephant! Crickets for years. Looks like they got lucky due to current data center driven energy boom in the US. Realised price is 4x what they paid! Clean deal, very low counterpart risk. Tax and Govt intervention risk?

Reputable buyer to give $500m Aussie to $EWC. $EWC trading about $200m below sale price! Bargain.

@Contrarian_WA Never Never was a new discovery albeit on a brownfield site. Potentially BNZ's zone 126 also. But yeah, not a lot despite the amount of $$ raised for exploration.

Trying to think of the last major discovery on the ASX. Azure comes to mind in 2023 and Luni before that in 2022 I can't recall any others and AI seems to agree It's been a long time between drinks. We need a major find to light up the whole market

@sparkes_dwayne If you wait long enough....#cyclicalindustries 😆

A couple of days have passed now and I’ve slowly recovered from reading the GS supply table. Some more ramblings on the current lithium market whilst I sip my morning coffee (managed to get this one down). Following on from my previous post regarding lepidolite production within China. The Chinese have shown that they are willing to mine spodumene at a near loss. It seems they aren’t too bothered about losses at the mining stage if it means greater control over the market. Alita with the whole Bald Hill mine debacle, were allegedly selling Spod concentrate from Bald Hill well below the current market price (70% under) to their Chinese offtake partner… See screenshotted article below. So why is China suppressing the price with low grade internal sources? I believe Its to bide time to build stakes in overseas, high quality lithium plays, predominantly Africa given the Australians and Canadians aren’t willing to play ball. Chris and Gina are well aware of this, and its most likely they are aware that the lepidolite reserves are a short term band-aid solution. As per my last post, you need roughly 84 tonnes of lepidolite ore to make 1 tonne of LCE. The contained lithium content of these low grade lepidolite mines is miniscule. The numbers below speak for themselves. ‘414 Mine’ has 130Mt @ 0.38% li2O. Contained lithium = 0.0038 x 130Mt = 0.494 Mt li2O. That’s roughly 1.22Mt of LCE. Compare that to Kathleen Valley. 156 Mt @ 1.4%. Contained lithium = 0.014 * 156Mt = 2.184 Mt li20. That’s roughly 5.4Mt of LCE So the ‘414 Mine’ is around 20% of Kathleen Valley in terms of contained lithium…😅 Also its not just about size, its how quickly can you get it out of the ground. $LTR for example is going to be a 4mtpa operation for 700,000kta SC6. You’ll need a 14.7mtpa operation to get the equivalent output from lepidolite grading 0.38% (414 Mine grade). And that's just the initial beneficiation stage...🤯 What we are seeing now is very similar to what happened with Iron ore. The Chinese attempted to use low quality, internal iron ore in order to manipulate the price. This turned out to be unsustainable and the price of Iron ore increased overtime. I believe we are seeing this again with in the form of Lepidolite. Its almost déjà vu in fact, the iron ore price plummeted 70-75% to a low of $37 a tonne in Dec 2015. Goldman Sachs' predicted the iron ore price to touch $35 a tonne in 2017 & 2018. The opposite happened and the price went ballistic. See chart below. Happy Friday everyone and cheers for reading.

@RawMinerals Doesn't that news you reposted (Atlantic Alumina) just illustrate what a folly it is for these junior germanium plays? Germanium is a byproduct and its only a marginal cost for many aluminium/base metal producers to recover it from existing mines.

#BM8 boiling 13.5c now #Germanium #Gallium play in ASX #MAGA #RareEarths #Atlantic

@Geologo_Trader Great to see you made it to see your bro! He should have been in since Perth or at the very least should have been selected over Inglis!

You can’t beat test cricket, especially the Ashes 🏏 Sydney 🇦🇺

@agroasx @OzCaps_Research @asicmedia Didn't he come to their attention a while back and went quiet for a while? Perhaps during these crazy days on the market there are too many pumpers for the small ASIC team to handle (or they are busy policing all the crypto scams)

@OzCaps_Research Am surprised @asicmedia aren’t better scrutinising this

@asxpeasant Always good to have some bears in your feed to keep you thinking about downside risk! Love the Great Martis!

@asxpeasant One day when you're that rich, your broker, who has been instructed by you to build a sizeable position in said stock, will engage in the same tactics you see here.

@TwinTurboCe1ica I actually don’t mind management selling when stocks get insanely overvalued. Hard to run a company with such insane expectations and valuation.

I guess the dude in the photo didn’t believe in what he was “building”. DroneShield $DRO $DRO.AX

@TRAVmoneyofmine @respeculator But who else would be interested? Not a BHP sized project really.

Look at this deal from the other lens. $HAV is $140m mcap at close (40cps). $105m cash and $SFR shares coming in the door in 2 months (~30cps). + SFR to sole fund PFS and 20,000m Kalkaroo drilling + SFR to sole fund $30m drilling on regional exploration Base case: another A$105m paid to HAV within the next 24 months. HAV retains 20% free-carried to FID, but they don't have to fund their share of capex! It's repaid from future cashflows. This is an asset deal with weak deal protection for SFR. A dataroom has been open here for years. This can get competitive quickly if another party has a similar technical view to SFR. A floor price has now been set! And the see-through value of that is clearly well north of 40cps. Haven't even included value for Mutooroo or Johnson's Dam. 🔔🔔🔔 Yes I am long. And yes I bought more stock today 🔔🔔🔔

$SFR.AX finally using their well priced (some may say inflated) scrip to buy into a new #copper project.. with a deal cut to earn into the ~30,000tpa Cu Kalkaroo project in (very) remote South Australia... My thoughts on this thing haven't changed much and I haven't been told they're wrong yet... it's low grade, remote and complex met. Per below the chalcopyrite (CP) is really the only economic mineralisation.. the rest need additions to the flow sheet and/or have very poor recoveries. Issue is the CP sits deep and only comes into the (existing) mine plan at year 5... maybe that changes.. but daresay this is north of A$1.5bn capex now to put in a 8-10mtpa plant and associated infra in a very remote location... thought $SFR.AX as a US$5bn copper miner would be more ambitious.. maybe they do or maybe this is the state of the market... West Musgrave or Winu seemed a bit better options?.. Hell they could have bought Nifty and had a bigger production profile at 20% of the capex and > half of the time to production.. (but get mgmt don't want to take on that risk)

@stockswami Bit of a broken record mate. Love your work but why do you ignore the 100’s of scam juniors pumping critical mineral plays in tiny markets where investors stand to lose 100%? These are markets where supply will be filled by 1 mine or existing mines tacking on a new circuit.

The fact is $KAU had $4.7m cash flow after producing near 9k oz and $45m revenue. It's costs equate to 4500 an oz That does not include depreciation, or share based payments which will be calculated in the AR. This was $8m last fy. That means a drop of A$500 in price of gold will mean no profit for $KAU

So much for $KAU printing money. Let's see how the spruikers spin the $KAU.ax quarterly sold Gold @ 5300 Made $4m in 3 months at record gold prices. Will lose money very quickly should POG fall much. Whem cap raise? @TwinTurboCe1ica @ShitValueFund @jameswhelan42

What a fantastic orebody! World class orebody and financials. I may have missed a lot of pumped up REE and scam commodity plays lately but my biggest winners over the years have all been REAL discoveries where I was lucky to get in early $SPR $AZS $PMT $SIR $SFR (next $BNZ)

@gabbaking88 Ahh was meant to put the ticker: $MEK

@Rangoon871 Thanks mate, what's the ticker? Keen to see who's the management behind this. Looking to find gem backed by great management.

This is how you do a ramp-up. Underpromise and overdeliver ($BGL could learn something). Exceeding the FS start-up plan on all levels. AISC should fall once it ramps up. Should close the gap to its NPV (~$900m)

@TwinTurboCe1ica 68kt processed last quarter for 8.1k oz produced. If thats increased to 100kt for 12k oz, AISC should plummet as it is largely a fixed cost mine (as Brad has stated several times). Now to convert resources to reserves.

$KAU $KAU pushing another 33% production into record gold prices... #Gold #GoldProducer

@Eagleresa Nice move putting Brad (ex-NST) in charge - will make institutional investors more comfortable. I feel that Jon Downes' cowboy approach with A1 (a mine and hope its there approach) discredited $KAU in professional eyes.

$KAU also up today curr 1c at 28c (touched 29c) on prodn 8.12koz in SQ25 (ie ~32.5kozpa being above expected 24 to 30kozpa) and started drilling under the Union Pit at Maldon - maybe hoping for that historic high grade central shoot of 51kt @ 43gpt (yes forty-three gpt ie ~70koz)

@YellowStripeASX How well do you know the business? They don't provide a lot of info on their addressable market, current penetration etc for their sensor business. I can't find any investor presentations for the last year or so either. 90% conversion is impressive.

$DVL NEWS💥 Someone needs to get a calculator out🤓 ⏩ $DVL ViMove+ product is showing early signs of scale in the US Physical Therapy (PT) market, WITH GROWTH RATES ALREADY TRACKING 15x HIGHER THAN HISTORICAL MONTHLY ACQUISITION TRENDS⏪ ⏩Clinics are delivering CONSISTENT ANNUAL RECURRING REVENUE (ARR) OF ~$3,000 AUD PER CLINIC⏪ I'm loving the progress, this is in addition to all the #RRAM #Robotics work happening as well.

$KAU becoming a cash cow. 8.1k oz produced for quarter (32k oz p.a.). Looking at >$100m op cash flow from Henty (~$140m EV).

@Christophe_Qld What do you think of their geological model, targeting granites outside of the greenstone belts? There's gold there - as their sampling shows, but my question is whether there can be scale? The JORC notes to their sampling states they are very narrow veins (<1m)

$AUG $AUG.ax worth a squizz imo. $7m MC with $3m cash. #Gold and #PGE projects in WA, plus the huge potential to acquire a 2.1m ounce gold project in PNG with Brian Roden leading the charge. That would be incredible if he could pull that off. Just raised at 4.6c well above the current SP. Looks extremely undervalued imo.