Raather Abbas

Thrilled to announce d release of my new #Book, now available on Amazon & flipkart. I’d be truly grateful fr ur thoughts & reflections on it. amzn.in/d/bSNvGX5 @PravinSawhney @Chellaney @SushantSin @HappymonJacob @kumaraswamyJNU @johnstanly @GhoshSamyak @RuhullahMehdi

Just a few hours after my tweet where I said there would b no such escalation as Trump suggested & that an exit from the war was coming. Just few hours after that a ceasefire was announced. (People were saying about Nuclear weapons & ground invasion)

There will be no such so-called ‘end of civilisation’ in Iran, as threatened by Trump. There will be no use of nuclear weapons. Trump is seeking a deal and a way out, and that exit is likely to come very soon. Just wait for it.

Cold War In The Islamic World: Saudi Arabia, Iran And The Struggle For Supremacy Dilip Hiro, Oxford University Press 2019 PDF 🎯 archive.org/download/cold-… archive.org/details/cold-w…

Modi’s strong support for Israel – and refusal to condemn the Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran, a long-time friend of India’s – have “diminished India’s stature in the eyes of the world.” buff.ly/L5aPAru

For a longer account of how the Nixon Kissinger use of Pakistan for the US's China opening affected all of South Asia, pl do read my chapter, and the one by @tanvi_madan in A New Cold War, edited by @Barugaru1 @Usibc_md share.google/82woT0TB5Mj4T4…

We should stop obsessing over Pakistan’s mediation in Iran. Success or failure, it’s a sideshow. What’s actually alarming? Our energy security is a constant casualty of Washington’s geopolitical playbook. Venezuela, Russia, and now Iran. Again & again. That is the vulnerability we should be talking about. Not our neighbor’s PR.

“Cognitive Surrender” - a new study argues that use of AI leads to suspension of human reasoning, not its augmentation. The implication being that over time people will lose their reasoning ability & use AI as its substitute. Download the paper for free here, excerpts & reference below: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… ——- “As people increasingly integrate AI into their decision-making processes, they interact and engage with a cognitive system that can reshape the functions of both intuition and deliberation. For example, System 3 can replace System 1 by offering confident, ready-made answers that preempt the need for intuitive reasoning.” (page 15 of pdf) “As AI systems increasingly participate in human cognition, a new phenomenon emerges that cannot be explained by traditional concepts such as cognitive offloading or automation bias alone. We define cognitive surrender as the behavioral and motivational tendency to defer judgment, effort, and responsibility to System 3’s output, particularly when that output is delivered fluently, confidently, or with minimal friction. Unlike cognitive offloading, which is typically strategic and task-specific (e.g., using GPS to navigate), cognitive surrender entails a deeper transfer of agency.” (Page 17) “Access to System 3 outputs significantly influenced accuracy, increasing correct answers when AI was correct, and decreasing accuracy when incorrect. Access to System 3 made decision-makers more confident, despite approximately half of System 3 outputs being incorrect. Finally, users who trust AI more and have lower NFC and fluid IQ were more likely to display cognitive surrender. Whether System 3 was accurate or faulty, its presence displaced internal reasoning.” (Page 27) “Cognitive surrender was robust across studies.” (Page 42) “Across our studies, we observe that when System 3 was available, people readily engaged it and frequently adopted its answers. This shift reflects a reallocation of cognitive control rather than mere effort saving. System 3’s fluent, confident outputs are treated as epistemically authoritative, lowering the threshold for scrutiny and attenuating the metacognitive signals that would ordinarily route a response to deliberation. In the case of cognitive surrender, there is a shift in the locus of control, with an external system (System 3) occupying the default position.” (Page 45) “Time constraints clarify why surrender arises so readily, while incentives and feedback show that surrender is malleable. When decision time is scarce, the internal monitor detecting conflict and recruiting deliberation is less likely to trigger. Hence, the low-friction path to defer to external cognition becomes attractive.” (Page 46) “Tri-System Theory is not a warning about AI’s dangers but a recognition of System 3’s psychological presence. We do not merely use AI; we think with it. In doing so, we must ask new questions: What happens when our judgments are shaped by minds not our own? What becomes of intuition and effort when a generative, artificial partner stands ready to answer? How do we preserve agency, reflection, and autonomy in a world where users engage in cognitive surrender?”

Breaking News: Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia pushed President Trump to continue the war against Iran, people briefed on the conversations said. nyti.ms/4lOEsFa

Roughly, one advanced Iranian ballistic missile costs ( In Indian Rupees) around Rs 40 Rs65 crore. Iran has fired more than 1,200 such projectiles so far! 🤩 Rest U understand😇

@PravinSawhney Apko b Eid Muberak

In India, Eid is tomorrow (Saturday). To those friends outside India who are celebrating it today. Eid Mubarak!

To those asking for Eidi…..your Eidi has been officially, respectfully, and permanently rejected. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Donald J. Trump 😂

Professor John Mearsheimer: We’re not winning against Iran. We’re not winning. We’re sending a message that we’re a bunch of fools. That we started a war we can’t win. We didn’t have the required military forces to achieve any of the objectives that we were floating, and we had no plan. What does this tell the Chinese and what does it tell the Russians? It tells them that we are incompetent. Of course the Russians have had enough dealings with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to fully understand just how incompetent we are.

BRICS Meets Reality in the Middle East War - It’s the latest case study in the persistent failure of transnational solidarity. foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/16/ira…

🚨Breaking : US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau says : “ The US will not give India the same kind of economic advantages it gave china , US will not allow India to become its competitor, The Trade deal will keep Americans first ” He gave this statement in India on Indian soil, because he knows the cowards in govt will never say anything in counter. Complete surrender.

“Under Trump, the United States has become a predatory hegemon,” writes Stephen Walt. “This strategy is not a coherent response to the return of multipolarity; in fact, it is exactly the wrong way to act in a world of several great powers.” foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

Op Sindoor was impressive, but it also masked - & deepened - many structural challenges in Indian defense policy. Unless India addresses them, it will face a worsening security rivalry with China. My latest, a review of 2025 in Indian security policy: hoover.org/sites/default/…

The world, Europe, and Spain have faced this critical moment before. In 2003, a few irresponsible leaders dragged us into an illegal war in the Middle East that brought nothing but insecurity and pain. Our response then must be our response now: NO to violations of international law. NO to the illusion that we can solve the world’s problems with bombs. NO to repeating the mistakes of the past. NO TO WAR. lamoncloa.gob.es/presidente/int…

in the Indian Ocean especially one that had participated in a naval exercise hosted by India indirectly challenges India’s naval presence and influence in the region. I am waiting for an Indian official response on this!

An Iranian naval warship IRIS Dena that had come to participate in the MILAN naval exercise hosted by India was on its way back when it was struck & sunk by American torpedoes in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka. This is concerning for India. An attack on an Iranian ship