Джон Голт 0,5% 😼
14.1K posts

Джон Голт 0,5% 😼
@RealJohnGolt
Аккаунт юмористический. Твиты и ретвиты не являются рекомендациями к действию. Лучший трейдер мира по версии моей кошки. Commodities trader
Katılım Mayıs 2020
580 Takip Edilen2.1K Takipçiler
Джон Голт 0,5% 😼 retweetledi

@mnskymoment Рпять там у вас что-то запретили в борьбе с впнами?
Русский
Джон Голт 0,5% 😼 retweetledi
Джон Голт 0,5% 😼 retweetledi

The market is badly misreading the Iran war.
Yields rising. Dollar up. Gold selling off. The market is pricing tighter Fed policy and it’s absolutely wrong.
This is not 2022. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the world was drowning in post-COVID stimulus and broken supply chains. That war poured gasoline on an inflation fire that was already burning. Demand-driven inflation was already embedded; the Fed had no choice but to respond.
That setup doesn’t exist today.
Powell himself has articulated the standard framework: monetary policy should “look through” supply shocks to the extent they are temporary. This is textbook Bernanke-era thinking. anchored inflation expectations give the Fed the leeway to not respond to transitory price spikes. The SF Fed’s own research (Shapiro, 2024) formalizes this, showing that monetary policy operates through the demand channel. Tightening into a pure supply shock accomplishes nothing except slowing growth.
The Fed will be far more concerned about the growth impact of an energy crisis than the inflation impulse.
The right analog is 1973 and 1979. Both energy crises produced the same result: supply shocks that overwhelmed growth, drove real yields deeply negative, and sent gold sharply higher. The inflation was real, but the growth destruction was worse. That’s the playbook.
I’ve repeatedly warned that the closure of the Strait will have enormous consequences, not just through higher energy prices but fertilizer, aluminum, sulphur, and a myriad of other commodities. The market is finally starting to recognize that.
Selling gold here is a mistake. This is a stagflationary supply shock where real yields are going to fall and hard assets are going to matter enormously. Gold bulls should be buying the confusion, not questioning the thesis.
English
Джон Голт 0,5% 😼 retweetledi

@nice_kingdom Ну в любом случае было бы очень интересно и бой дали бы всем
Русский

@RealJohnGolt Я думаю вероятность что мы бы забрали эти овуляционные игры не маленькая и это жесть что мы не играли… И, у Канады состав такой что пиздец и они ели доковыляли до финала.
Русский

@nice_kingdom Да они бы даже в состав не попали. Они не тянут уровень канады/США даже близко
Русский

@RealJohnGolt Фил Майков всеразрбрал грамотно. Берем кокоинщика 92 и щипачева и уже не хуй собачий , правда ?)
Русский

@nice_kingdom На одном Кучерове и Капризове тяжело бы было. Центров нет у нас. Только Малкин, но уже старый
Русский

@RealJohnGolt Да прикольный, жалко Кросби (джон Голт) выбыл… Я как человек из магнитогорска никогда не прощу всем этим пидарасам недопуск туда где мы основа и без нас это цирк
Русский

@mnskymoment Так он с телевизора не вылезает. Это Американская версия Кости Бочкарева
Русский

bro had 2k subscribers in twitter 4 years ago. What a success story
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart
The @Citrini7 selloff
English
Джон Голт 0,5% 😼 retweetledi
Джон Голт 0,5% 😼 retweetledi

S&P dealer gamma just cratered to $200M after OpEx 📉
The 2-year average is $5.2 BILLION.
That means the market’s shock absorbers just got ripped out.
Dealers aren’t hedging, they aren’t pinning strikes, they aren’t dampening moves.
Next week price can move FAST/see follow through in either direction ⚡️
Every time gamma has dropped near zero on this chart the market either ripped or dumped violently.
The direction depends on what catalyst shows up — but the SIZE of the move will be bigger than normal until dealers reposition.
Buckle up 🤝🎢
zerohedge@zerohedge
Gamma plunges after opex
English

@GHGMath 2030 Final:
Russia vs Canada 5-0 and 5 goals by Demidov 🙈
English
Джон Голт 0,5% 😼 retweetledi












