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comparing some pivotal moments:
1. Jan 2022 - Powell signalling raising rate, the market was complacent and underestimating the how long it would go
2. April 2025 - Tarriff bottom, market did not price in TACO/pivot
3. Mar 2026 - war may go on longer than expected and inflation may run higher for longer
it is pretty hard to short indices as many names are down 10-20% from the high and spx is only 3% off, but it is very evident to me that the risk appetite is shrinking
think about the order of recent corrections:
crypto ->gold/silver->ewy->?
trash(higher risk beta) tends to correct first and it is fitting that spx corrects last when the nothing-ever-happens crowd get louder
another perspective: druck bottom-up philosophy but reaper approach
on a local level, we have seen most of the good earnings trigger a sell the news event, so we have
good news -> sell the news
bad news -> sell the news on steroid
its prudent to be careful out there.
its a scalper paradise, nothing more
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom
Markets remain overly optimistic how long this conflict may last and what collateral damage may occur. Risk continues to be mispriced imo.
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