Axel T

@kpak82 Thank you for the reply and the analogy! Appreciate it!

In a major top reversal, you are watching a car with a high mileage that is overheating and pushed dangerously above the accepted speed limit. It's approaching potential roadblock, rough terrain with extreme weather. Going little further/higher (from the zone) will not fix all these conditions but rather make it worse. Chances of the car breaking down and turning around to the repair shop is the probabilities of the reversal.

@kpak82 I noticed you said that there would be a high possibility of a reversal this past week. The market continued to rise but into several more resistances. What would change your perspective to more bullish? if those resistances are broken?

The difference between a bottom reversal after a major selloff vs top reversal after parabolic rally? They both have trolls and people mocking the reversal trade believing the trend will continue extend further and possibly forever. However the top reversals are louder as most people are used to buying the dip and they get very excited and cocky when their slot machines are working again. $SPY hit the mother of all resistance zones on Friday so if you never traded downtrends, it would be wise to study prior market tops so you can capitalize on the way down.

@kpak82 Risky but I’m trying a 5/15 $600 QQQ put at these levels

So if you understood this chart, it means momentum is dried out on this upside rally as we have not moved all of last week. And you are buying high at ATHs. Anytime u buy at fomo highs, upside is limited. That's basic elementary trading concept. If you add bearish resistance element (channels, trend lines) to a historically extended rally, then you have a reversal trade. No we havent started the reversal. Market is making it extremely hard for average "traders" to time it.

@kpak82 I’ve been reading some of your posts more carefully the past few days. Please continue to share and teach. I’m sure there’s many more like me trying to learn.

I dont randomly post conviction market predictions on a Friday night from a club while partying with friends. Im at home 8 hours into my weekend chart work and seeing how everything is lined up. Ego? No. Zero ego. Im evidence based (likely due to my medical background) trader. when 20-30 charts align and point in the same direction, we have a potential diagnosis. Market may look healthy and pushing strong but the blood work is starting to show signs of elevated enzymes and inflammatory markers that could indicate early signs of a heart attack in combination with liver and kidney failure.

@ohiain Just to confirm, did you buy a small position of weeklies along with the monthlies today?

Below, I’ve attached every single trade I took this week. Just another week where preserving capital and being selective has paid more than forcing trades just to "feel" active. Former leaders have been rolling over for weeks, and $SPY + $QQQ continue to chop in this larger range. The focus this week was to stay alive & stay patient. Every trade I took this week: $WULF 17c 20 Feb @ .63 → 1.30 +106% $LOW 300c 20 Mar @ 3.30 → 5.50 +67% $ZM 100c 20 Mar @ 3.05 → 4.90 +60% $WULF 18c 20 Mar @ 1.47 → 2.12 +43% $AA 65c 20 Mar @ 3.75 → 4.80 +29% $INTC 55c 20 Mar @ 2.00 → 1.68 -16% $SMCI 35c 20 Mar @ 2.02 → 1.75 -13% Attached is the $WULF trade I took today to finish the week strong!

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@GnT_Trades What makes you size so much larger on one play vs another? Conviction? Time?

Good question. I think the biggest thing is that I’m hyper focused on my own performance and how I’m doing at a given time, not on what someone else is making or trading. I’m always learning from others but my attitude isn’t that I need to match them or be like them at this very moment. I simply look for small, low hanging fruits to add to my toolkit that can add some extra performance. A bit of FOMO is natural for any trader. We’re all human. But at the end of the day, you can’t catch them all. The way I look at it is you just keep moving. Today’s trades are tomorrow’s memories. 90% of the time, you won’t even remember what you traded a week ago. So one specific trade is less important in the grand scheme of things. You should try to be involved in the right opportunities, but the most important thing is avoiding big losses. Small wins, small losses, and the occasional big win will put you ahead of most market participants over time. Avoiding large losses isn’t just about money. People underestimate how much mental capital gets destroyed in the process. It’s not just the weeks or months it takes to get back to equity highs. Your confidence and decision-making usually lag even longer. During that period, you’re more prone to mistakes. Just like positive momentum, mistakes compound too, and if you’re not careful, they can snowball into a real tilt that sets you back for a while. That’s the main thing I optimize against. I’m not the most skilled trader, not even close. But I know myself and my limits really, really well. I know when to trust myself and when not to. I know when the market makes me feel a certain way, I need to guard against certain types of mistakes. Another big piece is staying in your lane. Most traders hurt themselves by strategy hopping or trying to trade like someone else during someone else’s window. You have to figure out what style actually fits you and then extract the best version of yourself from that. Depth beats breadth. Master 1 way of making money instead of being mediocre at 5. The rest comes down to bet sizing. My biggest bets are 20-50X larger than my smallest ones. There’s still a lot of room for me to improve here, but this alone was an important factor for my results compared to a few years ago. I’ve learned how to sit still, avoid pressing the gas, and then shift back into higher risk when conditions line up in my favor.