RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research

@TraderBreeze The positions pressure subsides

@RenMacLLC I’m curious what happens when Friday is out of the way

$SPX < 6600 is first gamma floor, but dangerous frenzy starts in ernest $SPX < 6500 while staring down the barrel of 4x witching tomorrow. #gamma

@NickFondacaro Our friend @SaraEisen has a higher iQ than the rest of that table combined. If it wasn’t clear before, it most certainly is now.

After trying to stop CNBC anchor Sara Eisen from discussion Trump Accounts by constantly interrupting, Joy Behar decries them because they don't put money toward solar and wind energy: EISEN: You have to separate the character from the policies. BEHAR: Uh-huh. EISEN.: And there are policies that this administration has done. BEHAR: All right. EISEN: Do you know about Trump accounts? HAINES: Yes. EISEN: It's really interesting. BEHAR: You know - EISEN: For every baby born in this country - every baby, no matter what income level, now qualifies for a thousand dollars in the S&P that they can hold until they're 18. GOLDBERG: Okay. EISEN: That is a transformational policy BEHAR (interrupting): You know, I would like to say something. GOLDBERG: Yes. Go ahead. Go ahead. Let joy -- EISEN: -to be part of the system. BEHAR: What disappoints me about this entire conversation is that there's no effort put into solar energy. The sun is there.

@QuietEdgeCo Xactly…..and they dissipate quickly

@RenMacLLC These moves don’t come from conviction. They come from positioning being forced.

January new home sales plunge to the lowest pace since 2022 cnb.cx/40G4BMM

$GLD bulls beware higher PPI data tends to work against the bull-case for gold. Couple that w/ RenMac's bubble signal in 4Q and $GLD looking vulnerable.

@mirzane1 Hold onto your ball-sack RenMEc, our Internal counsel is preparing a complaint asserting trademark infringement, false designation of origin, and unfair competition under the Lanham Act, 15 U.S.C. §§ 1114 and 1125(a), arising from Defendant's unauthorized use of RenMac's trdmrk

@RenMacLLC My strategy plan. ⤵️Show more

High vs Low Leverage performance in financials is now in the bottom 3rd percentile. That's fairly historic and means 1 of 2 things. We'll discuss on Friday's "off-script" podcast (YouTube, Spotify, Apple, Tiffany's, etc)

Look, not everyone’s built for podcast fame. But you? You've got a voice (and maybe even a face) for Off-Script. Drop your video or audio question in the Mailbag and earn your spot: start.renmac.com/renmac-mailbag…

PPI readings yesterday pushed into the 90th percentile historically. There's a statistically strong and negative relationship between PPI and SPX forward returns. This is now working against $SPX, but in favor of $DXY.

Chemicals have been laggards for years. Today their relative trends flipped from bear to bull, with lots of runway remaining.

This from @RenMacLLC is one of the bigger takeaways from today for markets: "This feels like another backstop gone for the economy. There is no longer such a thing as good news cuts. The Fed will not step in right away even if unemployment climbs. So, the strike price on the Fed put is even lower now than it was before."

@greg_ip Productivity boom and lower r star so “pull a Greenspan” and cut!

@RenMacLLC What is the golden age thesis?

Looks like some AI optimism finding its way into FOMC's long run growth forecasts (2% now vs 1.8% in Dec)

Powell sort of sounds like he will hang around. To repeat: Kevin Warsh will come into the seat as the weakest Fed Chair in recent (living?) memory.

Powell notes the disconnect between cooling labor market conditions but stickiness in non-housing services inflation.

Powell elevated goods prices and seemingly downplayed non housing services inflation.