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Dodd-Frank didn't eliminate credit risk. It relocated it.
The structural DNA of the 2008 crisis — opacity, leverage in non-bank intermediaries, liquidity mismatch, mark-to-model valuation — has migrated, not disappeared.
Today it lives in a $2.1T private credit market roughly the size of subprime at its 2006–2007 peak.
Jeff deGraaf, along with Kevin, Jillian, and Howard, just published our framework for thinking about it.
Five mechanisms from 2008, mapped to their modern analogues. Three forward paths (~45% / ~35% / ~20%). The bank channel — and why we think the closest historical analog is reserve-based lending in oil and gas during 2014–2016, not subprime in 2008.
The full report — including the bank-channel deep-dive, the monitoring dashboard, and forward-scenario detail — is available here: start.renmac.com/private-credit
#PrivateCredit #CreditMarkets #BDC #FixedIncome
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