Restructuring__

We made it boys Go read the Pari Passu Newsletter Banks are literally telling you

These are pretty cool, but I can only imagine this combo concept on restructuring events Sample parlay: - Castleknight loses Trinseo battle - SpaceX back-end widens 50bps - Xerox does a second LME by December 31st 🔥🔥

@gsivulka @hebbia IB Analyst -> Hebbia MD pipeline

Thrilled Avi has joined @hebbia , as our new MD for Investment Banking… He is an absolute powerhouse, with decades of experience from the world’s best financial firms. We’re hiring!

If you never worked in banking, you likely idolize a role in the industry 🧵 If you have worked in banking, you likely realize how hard and painful it is to make a long-lasting career in the industry. This often leads people to leave banking, but finding a role that still had that element of finance was hard, really hard. Just now, an interesting exit opportunity has emerged with AI platforms for finance like Hebbia. If you love finance, want to build and take more risks than being a career banker, it is worth doing an interview and learning more.

Writeup Preview: Anthology Tomorrow’s write-up is the second post of our three-part series, which will culminate in a broader essay on non-pro-rata (NPR) economics in Chapter 11 on Friday. Although we will not explore the NPR mechanics deeply in this writeup, this piece will provide the contextual groundwork for Anthology to explore the legal arguments in the finale on Friday. Last Friday, we discussed how the Bankruptcy Code requires equal treatment among similarly situated creditors in ConvergeOne (C1), where creditors attempted to achieve outsized non-pro-rata economics in bankruptcy by taking a controlling position prepetition. In Anthology, 1L TL lenders similarly attempted to take control prepetition by locking their superior position through an uptier that tightened documentation. Later in the writeup, we will discuss how beneficial this position eventually became in priority access to new-money participation and related economics (i.e., post-reorg ownership).  Subscribe now: restructuringnewsletter.com

@nicochristie Likewise, pushing the boundaries!

@Restructuring__ Thank you for advice and guidance along the way! So glad to be partners.

In case there were any doubts, this is the ultimate confirmation that AI x Excel is just a net positive for finance roles - especially high finance ones I remember one of my first weeks on the desk as an IB analyst, and I realized how much Excel skill I missed. Note, I am saying Excel, not modeling, because those are different skills Before AI, a big part of the job was learning to use Excel, in ways that had no relation to being a great banker or investor (e.g., learning how to use pivot tables) Now, with tools like this one, everyone has an Excel World Champion as their (perfect and always available) intern. This results in a massive time unlock to use Excel for intellectually stimulating activities Massively bullish

@MikeFritzell What's the thesis around Thailand?

Insider buying data via Smart Insider. It's not a coincidence that I've spent so much time on South Korea and Thailand in the past few months.

If you find this interesting, check out our full research restructuringnewsletter.com

4) Hard Lesson and Career Advice Geenberg closes with a rule he repeats to every new analyst: “trust the process.” In distressed situations, you are buying what everyone else has given up on. He believes it’s a myth that screens and quick comps reveal the real prize, you must go out and do the hard work. He learned this in 2009, when a bankrupt Nortel Networks appeared to be just another telecom liquidation. Nortel was a legendary technology company and was the backbone of the U.S. telecom infrastructure. As an analyst digging beyond the income statement to find pockets of value, he discovered a patent that was essential for creating a 4G cellphone or cell tower. Every single 4G device would pay them pennies on the dollar, and SVP learned that they had thousands of patents like this as Nortel overspent for decades. SVP believed they were the most bullish on the patents, assuming a $1bn sale price; however, tech giants started a bidding war, and the patents went for more than $5bn. This outcome taught Geenberg a hard lesson that there is no replacement for doing the work. In today’s cycle, whether tariff-hit industrials or COVID-bloated consumer names, the winning trades will again come from patient, dedicated work that spots hidden assets and mispriced cash flows long before they appear in the headline numbers.

@bankingslut It makes you a real one

@Restructuring__ Does it make me old if I printed this thread out

The Opportunistic Mission: How SVP Became a Global Special Situations Powerhouse, and Why It Matters for Every Investor Strategic Value Partners (SVP) has evolved into one of the world’s most sophisticated investment platforms, managing over $22bn in assets, actively operating 19 companies, and strategically transforming complexity into long-term value. David Geenberg, once a Goldman Sachs banker turned seasoned special situations investor, now leads SVP’s North American investment team and recently unpacked the evolution of this disciplined approach 1) The SVP Approach (in Detail) 2) LMEs In the Spotlight (1.0s and 2.0s) 3) State of Distress 4) Hard Lesson and Career Advice An (advanced) Thread 🧵

3) State of Distress (as of June 2025) In 2024, nearly half of U.S. bankruptcies originated in the consumer, industrial, and healthcare sectors. Geenberg sees opportunities in both the consumer and industrial sectors, but is staying away from the healthcare sector. For almost two years, the industrial sector has had a slump in demand. Inflation has led to rising costs and squeezed profits. Geenberg observes that specific subsectors have been in “outright recession” for years, such as the building and construction materials sector. Home building has plummeted due to high mortgage rates, so the makers of these products have been suffering significantly. Tariffs exacerbate these problems; however, Geenberg sees this pain as cyclical and a future beyond this softness. Consumer strain spans both staples and discretionary, but the damage is worse in the latter. Geenberg observes that discretionary companies experienced success during the COVID era when households redirected spending from services to goods, and he provides sporting goods as an example. SVP also views the slowdown as a cyclical correction, not a structural impairment, and therefore sees compelling investment opportunities. Healthcare is an altogether different story. Since COVID, wage inflation for nurses and other staff has surged while a labor shortfall persists. Compounding this is that providers cannot pass these increasing costs along, as their customers are primarily the government and insurance companies, leaving hardly any room to offset the pressure. These conditions present a structural problem for Geenberg, and he does not see how SVP, or anyone else, could fix it; therefore, the firm avoids it. He pointed out certain exceptions, such as medical device makers who are not reimbursed by the government or insurance, which would be strong business, but are overshadowed by the sector-wide problems.

2) LMEs In the Spotlight Over the past four years, there has been significant growth in “liability-management exercises” (LMEs), out-of-court debt reshuffles that reduce par, modify terms, and alter priorities, oftentimes in a forced way. Geenberg views this rise with “caution.” According to SVP’s research, roughly 50 sizeable LMEs now hit the U.S. leverage credit market each year, yet hard data show they rarely “solve a lot.” Geenberg observes that sponsors pocket a 5-10% discount on the total capital structure on a net debt basis. However, in the average deal, gross borrowings usually rise as more money is borrowed, and aggregate interest expense and leverage remain high, along with a number of advisor fees. Therefore, Geenberg rejects the idea that LMEs are a reliable strategy for creditors to buy debt ahead of the transaction and expect to engineer a quick win. Geenberg notes that statistically, most firms do not consistently come out ahead. LMEs only work effectively when three conditions are met: the company can realistically grow into its debt load, the sponsor receives a reasonable discount, and all the necessary relationships are in place. Even though some blockers exist, such as “Serta Blockers” or “J. Crew Blockers,” there are still few protections in credit documents on LMEs, and Geenberg believes they will continue to persist. There are two broad generations of LMEs, 1.0s and 2.0s. 1.0s are when lenders violently move ahead of others, like the Serta case and the non-pro rata uptier, causing real value destruction for lenders who are not allowed to participate. In the 2.0s, they are often pro-rata, where all lenders have the opportunity to reduce their debt slightly and move up to a new super senior loan. The friendlier 2.0s are becoming much more common, and Geenberg believes that LMEs will trend towards that less violent direction, even though some 1.0s will continue to occur. Geenberg’s larger concern is that loan documents are not changing. This trend has led recoveries after a default to drop from about 70 cents on the dollar a few years ago to about 40 cents today, a troubling decline. See our full LME Data: restructuringnewsletter.com/p/liability-ma…

I hope it is an LBO Apollo 2nd year PE associate vs. AI Agent? Get your popcorn here!

Now Hiring: Legal Analysts We are hiring legal analysts to expand our restructuring coverage. If that’s you, or someone you’d recommend, reply with a short note on your background. A law degree, completed or in progress, is required. Send me a DM or apply on our careers page below

One of the worst parts about working in credit is how messy and time-consuming pulling financials is Very excited to work with Cognitivecredit. As part of the work together, you can request any financial model from any issuer in our US and European high-yield & investment-grade coverage today Their team will send you the very latest numbers — extracted, validated, and structured by our proprietary technology —  in spreadsheet format Thank you for following our research and making this possible! Request your model today: cognitivecredit.com/request-model?…

@50ontheDollar @lolviolence @sindap Love to see it, enjoy it The most beautiful years of my life :)

Special thanks to @lolviolence and @Restructuring__ for providing some sophisticated and amusing content and @sindap for the book about casinos that started it all

Monday marks my first day on the block as an RX banker. It will be a happy and fulfilling 24mo of representing down trodden minority lenders, levered portcos, melting ice cubes, ad hoc groups, and more Any and all advice, from being an analyst to buyside recruitment, from my vastly knowledgeable X network is welcomed May God be with us all, especially those without blockers

@the_P_God Will either really work or not work at all

@Restructuring__ Crazy graph

Is anyone really surprised? 📖 You’re asking 40x revenue for a company that: - Won’t be to be cash-flow positive until 2030 (Anthropic should be much sooner) - Unit economics TBD: According to Microsoft’s leaked revenue share data, OpenAI still burns $2 for every $1 earned on inference alone - More cash flow burn that any company ever (see graph below) - Has a massive lawsuit overhang