PR fluff for Marina Bay Sands. Talking about well grounded kids 🤣 $LVS
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Rahul Sharma
24.9K posts
Rahul Sharma
@Retail_Guru
Ex Global Consumer Fund Manager: 16 years at Citi, Alliance Capital in NYC, London, Singapore. Founder, Neev Capital. Strictly personal musings & not advice...
Katılım Mart 2009
219 Takip Edilen13.5K Takipçiler
Despite obvious challenges, no signs consumer is flagging anywhere yet. This is $LEVI reporting strength everywhere, including (surprisingly), Europe and China. Resilience led by solid labor markets still remains name of the game. 💪 $XLF $XLY $IDEXF $WMT $AMZN $WSM
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Solid February US retail sales. Strength across discretionary categories from DIY to sporting to apparel. Online & eating out solid. Furniture only weak category. $XLY $XLF $WMT $AMZN $BBY $MCD $DKS
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Maybe because Friedman doesn’t want written word quoted back to him, $RH release doesn’t have any! But usual macro, jam tomorrow & beating competition (on very selective timeless!) talk all still there. And now the idol is $AMZN not $AAPL or Hermes 🙄 $WSM
Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru
Gem from Friedman on Europe. First England was game changer but then no that was only a country estate but Paris ooh! Now, wait for it, only 8% of $RH business comes from cities! So zilch on how Europe is doing. And despite zero sales in region Friedman bemoaning macros!! 🤡
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Gem from Friedman on Europe. First England was game changer but then no that was only a country estate but Paris ooh! Now, wait for it, only 8% of $RH business comes from cities! So zilch on how Europe is doing. And despite zero sales in region Friedman bemoaning macros!! 🤡
Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru
Friedman the ‘seer’. Incredible how much slack folks still cut him. For all that talk of excitement around Modern, Contemporary without skipping a beat he goes back to saying how 60% of business is ‘traditional’ and how great $RH is there. 😂 $WSM $RH
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Friedman the ‘seer’. Incredible how much slack folks still cut him. For all that talk of excitement around Modern, Contemporary without skipping a beat he goes back to saying how 60% of business is ‘traditional’ and how great $RH is there. 😂 $WSM $RH
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@IadisGr8 Emirates is only up to 60% of pre-war capacity & Etihad/Qatar far less. Competition avoiding ME has added capacity between Asia/Europe but relatively miniscule & at MUCH higher fares vs pre-war esp Mar/Apr.
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@Retail_Guru The capacity is there - they are operating flights - people aren’t taking the gamble to use it
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Travel contagion is spreading - not just limited to Middle East. Emirates et al play a big role in connecting Asia to ROW & that capacity hasn’t been replaced & alternatives are now $$$ = demand destruction $ABNB $MAR $BKNG $XLY $XLF $DAL $UAL $AXP $V $MA
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This piece from @FT makes clear how far the UAE is going to help its jewel, Emirates, to protect its franchise. All is fair in love and war... Or is it? 🙄
Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru
ME carriers (Emirates in particular) are no pushovers. Flying full planes out of Gulf for now, catching up with backlog but flying back near empty planes. Lots of cancellations/no shows. Incredibly tough to plan but essential to keep franchise going timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/inter…
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From aircons to phones to medicines - inflation impacts run way wider than just oil, gas & fertiliser. At very least shows how much unhealthy global reliance on one small region & narrow strait is!
Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru
Newspapers full of stories about potential impact of this war, creating a doom loop. But no denying how widespread impacts are, yet how little airing secondary effects (beyond just oil, gas & maybe fertiliser) are getting in market discourse. $XLY $XLF $XLI $XLE
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Yes we’re all hyper focused on potential doom but take a moment to appreciate just how strong consumer is for now, especially on categories they value. Very strong at Carnival & yet another indicator how insulated US is from news cycle $CCL $FDX $DAL $AXP $XLY $XLF
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@TraceyRyniec thats my bigger fear about my summer flights. fully flexible but hey I would probably need to buy crazy $$$ flights at last minute 😅
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@Retail_Guru High ticket prices will create demand destruction. And, with jet fuel at $200 a barrel, they can't make money flying anyway. Will cancel non essential flights, eventually.
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Yup that’s why I decided to stay on extra month in India as I had to be back again at end of month. First it was just March due to Gulf lockdown. Now airlines are jacking up base fares for rest of 2026 - watching jet fuel, Gulf uncertainty & of course sensing an opportunity
Bloomberg@business
Travelers hoping for a drop in long-haul airfares are in for a brutal reality check. Ticket prices on major routes connecting Asia and Europe have surged up to 560% this month, and are likely to stay elevated as war-related disruptions ripple through the Persian Gulf, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@TraceyRyniec Yes I've booked all travel in past couple of weeks to cover me to end of summer. Refrained from booking any later as base line fares have gone up a ton & I can't believe they can stay there in the fall if oil eases.
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@Retail_Guru It's going to get expensive to fly anywhere. Right now, US flights aren't too bad. But United said they'd raise prices 20% if this continues.
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Gulp.
Bloomberg@business
Travelers hoping for a drop in long-haul airfares are in for a brutal reality check. Ticket prices on major routes connecting Asia and Europe have surged up to 560% this month, and are likely to stay elevated as war-related disruptions ripple through the Persian Gulf, according to Alton Aviation Consultancy: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@TraceyRyniec Haha don't jinx me! Have paid up for a journey back after Easter for whole family avoiding ME. And some are arriving here tomorrow night just after Trump's latest deadline 🫣
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@Retail_Guru Some may get trapped in some countries as jet fuel shortages happen. If you can not travel right now, I would recommend it.
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Next, UK's #1 discretionary retailer, saw surprising strength 4 weeks into war. International hit by Middle East where 6% exposure leads to modest guide cut. Manageable thru Q1 but beyond, prices will need to rise, hitting demand. No surprise but first to put in print. $XLY $XLF
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Weaker than expected services PMIs in Europe contrast to solid US plus continued retail strength +6.7% per Redbook. Europe's economies roadkill despite being bystanders while US holding up for now, despite being main war protagonist. Again highlighting relative US sheltering.
Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru
Based on this strength till end-Feb, Fedex sees US strength continuing & has not seen it wane in March-to-date. Have to reiterate how sheltered America is vs rest of world - doubt confidence has held up to this extent in other regions! $FDX $UPS $XLY $XLI $XLF
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On top of course, Puig itself has bought a ton of stuff over the years & $EL hasn’t exactly covered itself with glory in recent acquisitions. And risk of overpaying amid nascent recovery. Have to say why now & can see why Estee got marked down 11% despite already being on knees
Rahul Sharma@Retail_Guru
Objectively, clear rationale for Estee buying Puig. Low fragrance exposure key to why $EL growth has lagged. Charlotte Tillbury hot like MAC once was. Trouble is so much margin/sales to recover with only nascent signs of share/profit recovery & now a war to deal with. 🙄 $LRLCY
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Objectively, clear rationale for Estee buying Puig. Low fragrance exposure key to why $EL growth has lagged. Charlotte Tillbury hot like MAC once was. Trouble is so much margin/sales to recover with only nascent signs of share/profit recovery & now a war to deal with. 🙄 $LRLCY
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