@JohnDoeKnowsGuy Seems like Payments gets clocked every day ending in -y
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Revelations Partners, LP
2.4K posts
Revelations Partners, LP
@RevelationsLP
Revelations Partners, LP is a single-family office investment firm. Opinions are our own and not investment advice.
Greenwich, CT Katılım Temmuz 2015
231 Takip Edilen814 Takipçiler
@MrMojoRisinX Do you have some rough estimate of when this would happen? I would be shocked if it was in fewer than 5 years. Government works at a snails pace.
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Full descheduling.
Regulated like alcohol.
FDA sets product standards. TTB equivalent handles licensing. States retain their overlay.
The operators who tried to build their own brands from scratch fare worse than they expected. The ones who put product under an established energy drink or alcohol shingle move more volume and sustain it longer. Distribution and trust are already built. The cannabis name is almost beside the point.
$MSOS
14/n
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Prognostications by Mojo re: plants. $MSOS
Cannabis Twitter is a zoo. Retail, institutions, grifters, pumpers, and a lot of genuinely angry people who have every right to be.
This thread is for the traders and investors. The ones with actual conviction.
Good things are in motion, albeit very slow. Rescheduling is coming. Farm Bill likely gets resolved. The clock starts.
Some of these are better than a jump ball. Others are moonshots. Lower probability, longer time frame, but the logical chain exists on every one.
Let's go. (1/n)
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@MrMojoRisinX How do you see this happening without SAFER Banking or something equivalent? It seems clear to me it does not happen with just rescheduling.
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With so many operators holding overlapping assets, there are few mergers that actually make sense. Once you divest overlapping licenses, as required, the strategic benefit largely disappears, and finding buyers for those one-off assets is extremely difficult. Bolt-ons may happen, but large-scale M&A feels unlikely.
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Deals, Deals, Deals:
A large scale $MSOS merger is going to happen. Two players. Combined entity north of $5bn. Framed as a merger of equals (MOE). Very accretive synergy math.
Multi-state operators start shedding underperforming state licenses. Capital concentrates in the highest margin markets.
5/n
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@orrdavid Maybe this is simply a business better suited to the private markets? There are plenty of litigation finance funds generating attractive returns for LPs. What’s structurally different with $BUR?
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This doesn’t fully make sense to me. TurboTax is already free for simple filers and ~$200 for more complex returns, hardly a pain point. Why switch to a new provider? And how much trust will the average filer place in a general AI tool vs. a purpose-built tax platform? What am I missing?
$INTU
Michael R. Bock@michaelrbock
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I agree to an extent, but even private equity has a defined exit path. Without a current cash flow profile, and absent a compelling growth narrative, this feels less like PE and more like VC without the upside. Kind of stuck in no-man’s land. You need a buyer and those seem in short supply.
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@RevelationsLP @GiuseppediCiro What helps me is viewing these stocks like private equity with weird trading stubs that can be wildly illiquid. Just have to keep plugging away at individual stories and helping those companies grow.
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Not sure where this puts the count, but with $TOKE shutting down, that’s now the third or fourth cannabis ETF to close. A clear reflection of the ongoing apathy toward the space. What ultimately changes that remains TBD.
$MSOS
sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/cambria-a…
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@aaronvalue @GiuseppediCiro Appreciate you continuing to try but agreed it is nearly impossible in this environment. Hard to even identify the catalyst for change at the moment.
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@RevelationsLP @GiuseppediCiro Thanks. I just keep trying different ways to bring capital to the industry, but it is knife fight. One day it will change, but for now, it remains really hard.
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@aaronvalue @GiuseppediCiro Sorry that it didn't work out Aaron. Credit for giving it a shot. You know as well as anyone how tough this sector has been for some years.
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@RevelationsLP @GiuseppediCiro Cambria just couldn't attract enough assets to make it profitable. Apathy is the right word.
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@GiuseppediCiro I think there started to be more ETFs than viable companies. Also, too many undifferentiated products.
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@RevelationsLP The sector is too small for an ETF to survive long term, the only benefit that the ETF's have provided was access to shares of stocks that were otherwise blocked by many brokerages.
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@SowingAlphaSeed I'm a bit negative on $PRTH at this point. The leverage was always nagging me and with the low-ball takeout offer from mgmt it feels like you don't have shareholder alignment either. Valuation makes it attractive but that's only one leg of the stool.
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@taobanker At this valuation I’d say it’s a buy. Chart says otherwise.
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@TomSmith839 @jszhang0912 @AggieCapitalist Whatever the timeframe, has been a disaster of an investment. However, $WU has been quite bad too. The entire Fintech/Payments space has been a generally awful sector for the past few years. Not sure what the market needs to see here.
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@jszhang0912 @AggieCapitalist @RevelationsLP Could argue that given the impressive 5Y EPS growth and bad 5Y share price performance, one started buying to soon in 2021-2022? (For reference, I started buying last year and avg price around $90)
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The screenshot below is the saddest part of Voss letter to $EEFT... I like the wording a lot, "EEFT’s beleaguered shareholder base" #facepalm Kudos to @AggieCapitalist for taking the effort to write this.. @RevelationsLP @TomSmith839 marketscreener.com/news/voss-capi…
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"consistently" - you keep using that word...
Dalius - Special Sits@InvestSpecial
12% annual returns (net of fees) is the "Great Divide." Most struggle to beat the S&P 500. These 20 funds consistently hit that mark and, along the way, write impeccable investor letters. The ultimate fund letters shortlist👇 1) Praetorian Capital - @hkuppy 2) Gator Capital - @gatorcapital 3) Hayden Capital - @HaydenCapital 4) Laughing Water Capital - @LaughingH20Cap 5) Fairlight Capital - @Fairlight_Cap 6) Kingdom Capital Advisors - @kingdomcapadv 7) Atai Capital - @AtaiCapital 8) Merion Road Capital - @aaronjsallen 9) LVS Advisory (Growth Fund) - @LuisVSanchez777 10) Greystone Capital - @GreystoneCap 11) VOSS Capital - @CapitalVoss 12) Alluvial Capital - @alluvialcapital 13) SRK Capital - @CaptnKirk13 14) Silver Beech - @JamesHollier24 15) Sohra Peak Partners - @JonCukierwar 16) Crossroads Capital - @CrossroadsOnX 17) Saltlight Capital - @davideborall 18) Cedar Creek Partners - @eriksen_tim 19) Rewey Asset Management 20) Greenlight Capital Selection Criterion: 12% minimum CAGR since inception. Ranking: None. The list order is randomized and does not reflect relative performance.
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Hopefully the start to another great activist campaign at $EEFT by @CapitalVoss. A concise argument for the attractiveness of the stock and hopefully will bring potential suitors to the situation.
#SmallCaps
@AggieCapitalist @jonrice80 @taylor_hndrson
globenewswire.com/news-release/2…
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@SowingAlphaSeed I'm confused. $ORR isn't an ETF that just goes up every single day? What is this product?? 😂
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$ORR is NOT a zero beta product. Even if you think it has 30% alpha, that works out to ~0.1% per day which is pretty much complete noise on a day like today. There is material risk of a significant drawdown if the broader market crashes. If you want to mitigate that risk you could do things like pair it with a $EWJ short, but I personally think that will just detract from long-term returns.
FinancialWoodsman@FinanceWoodsman
@SowingAlphaSeed A little spooked seeing ORR -2% in one day
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@jszhang0912 I guess we're in the club together 😆
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@RevelationsLP Lol, I don’t disagree. I’m a bag holder here..
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However you dice it, at 6.5x FY26 EPS, $EEFT is absolutely and relatively cheap.
LeftHandedOctopus@AggieCapitalist
An ATM co getting acquired at 8x EBITDA, 2x the multiple of $EEFT (which has compounded EPS on par with MSFT, is more digital and has proprietary global rails to billions of accounts)
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Yes, the multiple segments, recent acquisitions, new business lines, all make for a messy story. With that said, I don't think the story is much worse than a few years ago when it was trading at 20x+. At these levels maybe nothing happens, but a lot of bad sentiment is priced in for a company that is still growing. But don't think you're wrong.
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@RevelationsLP They’re a bit complicated for an acquirer, don’t you think? Maybe selling part of the biz… I dunno. I personally find it very difficult to pitch this stock given the complexity of the business (various segments) and the perception that several are dying…
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@jszhang0912 Ahhh yes. Unfortunately, I can't pinpoint a catalyst either. Given that they are generating true FCF at some price presumably they could be acquired. I think the issue is more just w/the market's view on Fintech/Payments generally right now. The entire sector is in the doghouse.
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@RevelationsLP No argument on how cheap it is on a FCF multiple basis. Think there just isn’t a catalyst to unlock value. Mike said no one wants to buy epay. I haven’t asked about whether $NATL could be a buyer for their ATM biz but I guess they have thought this through as well. $EEFT
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