Richard Grieveson

Full report for members here. Executive summary and selected sections free to download: wiiw.ac.at/growth-model-a…

Summary: - CEE convergence story is intact. Region again showing its resilience, with divergence. - Inflation is back, and accelerates existing structural transformation. - Growth model is changing due to demographics, German stagnation and geopolitics.

Today we release our new @wiiw_ac_at forecasts for 23 countries in Central and Eastern Europe (#CEE). The region's growth model is in transition, and the Middle East war/inflation shock will accelerate this. A summary of the findings:

Defence spending in #CEE has overtaken FDI inflows as a share of GDP for the first time since the early 1990s. The growth model is changing.

Orbán's defeat was not only about economics, but the dire performance of the Hungarian economy over the last few years clearly played a big role. The extent to which #Hungary missed out on CEE's investment surge of the last few years is striking. @wiiw_ac_at

#Hungary was a regional growth front-runner, but has in recent years fallen behind many regional peers. 'Orbánomics' bears much of the blame. New @wiiw_ac_at policy note by @MarioHolzner ahead of the election: wiiw.ac.at/the-illiberal-…

After half a decade as one of the slowest growing economies in CEE, an opposition win in #Hungary's upcoming election could significantly improve EU relations and boost growth. More here (free to read): wiiw.ac.at/monthly-report…

EU enlargement has stalled, with challenges arising both in candidate countries & in the union. Brussels should revive the process by promoting gradual integration as a structured path to full membership, write @StefanLehne, @ZoranNechev, & @RicGri. carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/…

Donald #Trump ist für Osteuropa weder Grund zur Panik noch für Selbstgefälligkeit, meint @RicGri in seinem #Gastkommentar für @derStandardat. derstandard.at/story/30000002…

Out now: Our new Winter Forecast for Eastern Europe. The region is set to grow faster in 2025 despite #Trump. Private consumption driving growth, export-oriented industry struggling; 🇺🇦’s economic prospects uncertain; growth in 🇷🇺 will halve to 1.8%. ⬇️ wiiw.ac.at/winter-forecas…

New policy note with my colleague Meryem Gökten on Turkey's ever-fascinating geoeconomic options and strategy. There is an opportunity here for the EU if it wants to take it: wiiw.ac.at/turkey-s-geo-e…

A few thoughts on what Trump 2.0 will mean for CESEE, based on discussions in the region since the US election. Trade + investment could suffer and inflation could be higher, but CESEE's resilience to external shocks should never be underestimated: wiiw.ac.at/n-658.html