Carl Riccadonna

@GinaMartinAdams $5 gas would be equivalent to a $250 billion dollar tax hike on consumers

$150 oil means about $5 at the pump. Great chart from BI Chief Industry Economist. ⁦@Riccanomix⁩

Today's payrolls figure is expected to be a blowout, but there's a lot of ground to make up. "The 'jobs deficit' relative to pre-pandemic levels remains roughly as wide as it was coming out of the recession of 2007-09:" @Riccanomix

@lizslayed Hahahaha

This dad press conference is excellent 😂

“The divergent ‘K’ track will be broadly evident in the January jobs report, as sectors such as leisure, hospitality and restaurants/bars are due to witness ongoing, significant job losses”: Bloomberg Economics’ @Riccanomix bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

“Economic slack in general and labor slack in particular will stifle any sustained pickup in price pressures. This will yield the Fed an extremely long runway before officials will need to legitimately contemplate reducing accommodation”: @Riccanomix & @WingerEliza

Latest Macro Matters podcast talking the Economy - inflation, wages, growth with @Riccanomix... of course Angelo joins me for Fun Fed Facts were we talk TIPS and the Fed's influence on them... hope you'll have a listen. soundcloud.com/bloombergintel…

@FerroTV The 46% drop in S. Korean exports in the first 10 days of the month suggests it may be even harder still.

We've seen slower growth and steered clear of recession when unemployment was higher.

@FerroTV Fortunately, only a 10% correlation with US GDP.

If US GDP growth slows to 1.3% in 1H, as we now project, this would be troubling, to be sure, but we've seen weaker soft patches earlier in this cycle...and managed to muddle through. Labor market is far stronger now than the prior episodes from 2011 to 2015.

While difficult to find an apt supply-shock parallel to Covid-19 (Sars, Fukushima, etc.), one need not look far for a parallel to the financial market shock--the equity correction of 4Q '18. As a result, Bloomberg Economics is downgrading 1H growth to 1.3% from 1.9%.

Watch for downside risk to motor vehicle sales today. Auto sales are among the more weather-sensitive economic indicators, and are likely to be impacted by extreme severe cold and snow at the start of January. Bloomberg Economics projects sales rate @ 17.0 million vs. 17.8m prior

Gas price climb is starting to show up at the pump. Daily prices now $2.40 per gallon, reg. unleaded

U.S. Second-Quarter Growth Revised Up to 3%, Signaling Momentum bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @markets @shochandra

The rebound in 2Q corp. profits is significant, as it will support business plans to increase hiring and investment. Corp prof up 7.0% y/y

GDP report was not all revisions, as it also showed the 1st print on economy-wide corporate profits in 2Q. They rose 1.3% vs. -2.1% in 1Q.

Stronger consumer spending drove upward revisions to GDP in 2Q. Growth was revised from 2.6% to 3.0%--heady momentum could carry into 3Q.

Watch for waning confidence in President's economic agenda, following disbanding of CEO and manufacturing councils, in Chicago PMI & mfg ISM

The first eco data to show impact from Harvey is likely to be the Aug. vehicle sales tally reported on Friday, then jobless claims next wk.

Gas prices will be one of the first areas to show national impact of Hurricane Harvey. To date, impact is minimal--up just 4 cents.